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2020 election based on likely voter polls only


HSFBfan

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9 minutes ago, concha said:

 

Yeah, because there were no dirty tricks being played by the Dems and their media lackeys for months...

 

They sure as hell didn't drop a meaningless letter a week before the election that dominated the news and headlines for days.

The New York Times fell for it like morons and plastered the entire front page with coverage of it. It was breaking news on every 24 hour news network.

And it was NOTHING.

The conversation isn't the pissing contest you're trying to divert this into, it's whether that variable can be reproduced in 2020. I don't think it can, and unless these polls tighten a lot, organically and quickly - not having that Comey type letter to deliver a final blow will be tough to overcome.

The Hunter Biden diversion has been tried and clearly abandoned, and Flynn just got his BS exoneration by Barr put on hold again, so I'm not sure what well they have left to use.

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1 minute ago, DownSouth said:

They sure as hell didn't drop a meaningless letter a week before the election that dominated the news and headlines for days.

You have to give it to them.

Republicans are really good at kicking up dirt about absolutely nothing. They turned Benghazi and emails into enough fodder to only lose by 2.5 points and luck a feckless imbecile into the White House.

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13 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

You have to give it to them.

Republicans are really good at kicking up dirt about absolutely nothing. They turned Benghazi and emails into enough fodder to only lose by 2.5 points and luck a feckless imbecile into the White House.

The whole Republican Party is risking a ton this time. - Had Hillary won, they would have taken a ton of seats in the House and Senate (in 2018) just for people voting out of irrational hatred of her. Now, if this doesn't go EXACTLY the way Trump needs it to go, a ton of Rep's may go with him when they otherwise wouldn't have, had they just been themselves.

They're acting like COVID is either a nothing issue, or it is something...but it's over now. They always end up saying the quiet part out loud, McCarthy said so with Benghazi and Trump has done so with the Post Office sabotage - they're good at stirring shit that their cult buys into.

They've bailed on extending benefits to the millions that were kept afloat by the Federal benefits package.

And Trump hasn't outlined anything for a second term, at all. Meanwhile, cities are on fire and riots are all over, and Biden finally got the media to take note that this is already Trump's America...it ain't gettin' any calmer if he gets another term.

If Trump pulls it out - good for them.

But McConnell is really risking wiping out the entire party if he misplayed this hand (he's a terrible legislator too; great obstructionist though).

 

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8 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

concha's best defense is being transparently dishonest.

Then when called out on it he gets pissed and calls people names.

But he's not unhinged, no sir.

😄

 

You really are an asshole, Andy.

👍

 

You are literally lying to cover your lie about me being dishonest.

It's hilarious and pathetic at the same time.

🤡

 

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12 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

I agree that you were transparently dishonest to use August 26th and October 17th.

🤡

😄

 

So your choice was to recognize the completely valid point that polls can change alot or to manufacture a bullshit claim that someone was dishonest when they went out of their way to be honest.

Andy chooses to be an asshole and manufacture a lie. How utterly predictable. 💩

👍

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2 minutes ago, concha said:

So your choice was to recognize the completely valid point that polls can change alot or to manufacture a bullshit claim that someone was dishonest when they went out of their way to be honest.

My choice was to laugh at your cherry pick and call it, you know, a cherry pick.

We get it.

You think that your transparently dishonest comparison was valid.

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1 minute ago, concha said:

So your choice was to recognize the completely valid point that polls can change alot or to manufacture a bullshit claim that someone was dishonest when they went out of their way to be honest.

The polls have not changed a lot though.

You can keep up with the wishful thinking and transparent dishonesty but it's not going to do you a lot of good.

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Just now, Atticus Finch said:

My choice was to laugh at your cherry pick and call it, you know, a cherry pick.

We get it.

You think that your transparent dishonesty comparison was valid.

The exact date is entirely irrelevant.

The point of showing that Hillary was actually up by MORE than Biden in October and MORE than Biden within a few days of now  either sailed over your head, or you are just being an asshole.

Or both.

🤡

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3 minutes ago, concha said:

The exact date is entirely irrelevant.

The point of showing that Hillary was actually up by MORE than Biden in October and MORE than Biden within a few days of now  either sailed over your head, or you are just being an asshole.

Or both.

🤡

 

Would you rather invest in a volatile market or a steady one?

You get his point; Biden has been pretty consistent with his numbers, and in 2016 Trump even pulled the lead a few times over the closing months on the national polls (and the closing weeks he was starting to pull winning numbers in swing states). We're not really seeing that yet, a couple outliers here and there but nothing sustained.

That could still happen for Trump, long way to go, but you framed it in a wishful way compared to what the trend actually is.

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2 minutes ago, DownSouth said:

Would you rather invest in a volatile market or a steady one?

You get his point; Biden has been pretty consistent with his numbers, and in 2016 Trump even pulled the lead a few times over the closing months on the national polls (and the closing weeks he was starting to pull winning numbers in swing states). We're not really seeing that yet, a couple outliers here and there but nothing sustained.

That could still happen for Trump, long way to go, but you framed it in a wishful way compared to what the trend actually is.

Again, he knows all of this.

But he's just dishonest.

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1 minute ago, DownSouth said:

 

Would you rather invest in a volatile market or a steady one?

You get his point; Biden has been pretty consistent with his numbers, and in 2016 Trump even pulled the lead a few times over the closing months on the national polls (and the closing weeks he was starting to pull winning numbers in swing states). We're not really seeing that yet, a couple outliers here and there but nothing sustained.

That could still happen for Trump, long way to go, but you framed it in a wishful way compared to what the trend actually is.

 

That depends on where I think the market is going long term.

Biden was up by over 6 points on average in the key battlegrounds in late July per RCP.  He's now under 3 points. His lead is now less than half what it was just 4-5 weeks ago.

I made no prediction at all.  I said there's a long way to go.  Based on current polling, it's Biden's to lose. Just as it was Hillary's.

 

 

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