Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: But this has nothing to do with what we're debating. You're just throwing shit against the wall. It has everything to do with what we are debating. If it has Biden at 50 (it doesn’t), he might not get 50 - he might get 48. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: Oh look, Biden is at 49.3% in the RCP Pa. average. For the terminally stupid, that is less than 50%. Bormio now trying to nitpick 49.3% not being 50%. 😄 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ 49.9% on Fivethirtyeight. Not significant. Biden is at 50% and even if it was 49% he would break 50% on election day with even terrible percentages from independents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: It has everything to do with what we are debating. If it has Biden at 50 (it doesn’t), he might not get 50 - he might get 48. But the key words are on average. You are trying to cherry-pick outliers and claim that they are just as likely as the average. They're not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Bormio now trying to nitpick 49.3% not being 50%. 😄 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ 49.9% on Fivethirtyeight. Not significant. Biden is at 50% and even if it was 49% he would break 50% on election day with even terrible percentages from independents. That is simply an inaccurate representation of polling. He could get less than 49. The MOE goes both ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Trump is up 2 jn NC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: That is simply an inaccurate representation of polling. He could get less than 49. The MOE goes both ways. And he's just as likely to get more than 50% too. Again, on average. This is not difficult for normal people to understand. What's funny is that you employ this argument now but don't take into account that the polling error is just as likely to break the other way and Biden wins by more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: And he's just as likely to get more than 50% too. Again, on average. This is not difficult for normal people to understand. What's funny is that you employ this argument now but don't take into account that the polling error is just as likely to break the other way and Biden wins by more. That is true. I did not say Trump was going to win Pennsylvania, I said he has a reasonable shot. There is a reason Joe is in Pennsylvania and not Florida. He has to have Pennsylvania and they are concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: That is true. I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: I did not say Trump was going to win Pennsylvania, I said he has a reasonable shot. Nobody said otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: There is a reason Joe is in Pennsylvania and not Florida. He has to have Pennsylvania and they are concerned. Pennsylvania is the tipping point state in 35% of the fivethirtyeight simulations. So that's why he's there. Biden needs Florida even less than Pennsylvania. So that's why he's not there. Of course they're concerned about winning the election. No shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Nobody said otherwise. I dunno. Seemed like you said Biden polling at 50 meant it was over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bormio said: I dunno. Seemed like you said Biden polling at 50 meant it was over. Biden polling at 50% 2 days before election day means he's favored. That's not wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Some GOP-leaning pollsters say late learners moving towards Trump. Not a surprise to hear that but the reason is. Shutdowns. People do not want more of these. I think the European news has cut through here, Trump is hammering that theme in his speech now - I think their polling is picking up on it. The key is that it is moving YOUNG voters. They truly do not want lockdowns and Biden has been too wishy washy on the issue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Courtney Holland 🇺🇸 (@hollandcourtney) Tweeted: He is cracking up again! 😂 I seriously can’t get enough of Trump laughing over my video. https://t.co/ygrnbTjsLy https://twitter.com/hollandcourtney/status/1322950387976998912?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 I have had a slew of patients discuss Covid with me and think it is serious, but are dead set against new lockdowns. A surprising number. I think it is a stealth issue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Sick and Sad....But true!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 https://parler.com/post/833175d8836b411cb657bf28f58a7eb7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 This race is over Trump is going to win Joe was killed by the hunter scandal and the shut down oil comment 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bormio said: Some GOP-leaning pollsters say late learners moving towards Trump. I'm shocked. By both the lack of citation and that GOP pollsters are saying that the GOP is getting late movers. Never thought I'd see it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, Bormio said: The key is that it is moving YOUNG voters. The guy who said that Trump could split the youth vote. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 So Jason Miller, Trump toady, tweets that Jason Miller predicts a Trump win. 🤡 😄 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueliner Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said: @Blueliner Nice! Wish I coulda been there. There was a parade last week or the week before that I passed on the freeway...it was easily several miles long. Knoxville it MAGA country no question. 😎🇺🇸🇺🇸 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Souls to the Polls nets Dem 9,000 today in Florida. GOP won in person voting today despite numerous red counties not open. All Dem gains were in mail-in. GOP has 275,000 4/4 voters remaining. Dem and NPA 179,000 combined. Appears Dem either have no ground game or have shot their wad. 8.9 million votes cast so far - probably about 2 million to go. Even if you give Dem 55% of NPA votes to date for about 190,000 net votes (which looks generous based on counties they are from - NPA votes are redder from redder counties), the GOP would need less than 60% of Election Day vote to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Across co fl ks ky la MD NC nm nv sd republicans have outvoted democrats in person by about 700000 votes Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD democrats have about 7 million more votes in but democrats have sent in 15 percent more ballots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 NY leader of BLM locked up https://www.oann.com/nypd-arrest-top-blm-official-hawk-newsome/?fbclid=IwAR0L9JSTjf6klT3vQfqK2uSYE6fyagil1PclIR7TDCPX0_v7NqxN4oScSoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bormio said: Souls to the Polls nets Dem 9,000 today in Florida. GOP won in person voting today despite numerous red counties not open. All Dem gains were in mail-in. Why are you so bad at this? Oh, I know. Because you're just incompetent and dishonest. And that's without Miami-Dade County reporting. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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