Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Clinton was at 46% in the average in 2016. Biden is now at 50%. The polling average actually under polled Clinton by about 1.2%. The amount of cherry-picking an wishful thinking is comical. So they underpolled Trump by 6%. Nothing magic about 50. If Biden gets 49, he can lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: The Trump campaign has won the registration battle in virtually every battleground state. This is often repeated misrepresentation. Democrats have registered more voters since 2016. Republicans have registered more voters since the 2020 primaries. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/10/15/biden-trump-voter-registration And, again, voter registration doesn't tell you who someone voted for. UCLA conducted a poll that shows 13% of Republicans voting for Biden. Even if that's ambitions and it's 8-10 points for Biden then that significantly skews your silly voter ID claims. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: So they underpolled Trump by 6%. Nothing magic about 50. If Biden gets 49, he can lose. Yeah but there aren't not enough undecideds for that to happen again. Biden being at 50% makes all your math irrelevant. If the polls are what they were in 2016 then Biden still wins. You haven't been able to come to grips with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Trump is going to places a sitting president hasnt gone too in over 30 years If you look at Florida, the NPA vote is turning out in red, not blue counties. Makes it likely the NPAs are not going to give the Democrats much advantage if any. A lot of people at Trump rallies are not Republicans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: Nothing magic about 50. 😄 What a clown. You don't even understand math now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Atticus Finch said: 😄 What a clown. You don't even understand math now. Like no one polling at 50 ever lost an election - especially since it is 50. Not a helluva lot of difference between 50 and 49. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: Like no one polling at 50 ever lost an election - especially since it is 50. Not a helluva lot of difference between 50 and 49. You're wishful thinking again and trying to traffic on outliers. Polling at 50% is a pretty predictive threshold. Hillary never polled at 50% nationally or in any battleground state in the general election. Biden has consistency polled there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: This is often repeated misrepresentation. Democrats have registered more voters since 2016. Republicans have registered more voters since the 2020 primaries. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/10/15/biden-trump-voter-registration And, again, voter registration doesn't tell you who someone voted for. UCLA conducted a poll that shows 13% of Republicans voting for Biden. Even if that's ambitions and it's 8-10 points for Biden then that significantly skews your silly voter ID claims. 90% is pretty normal for a GOP candidate. Democrats historically do worse than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bormio said: If you look at Florida, the NPA vote is turning out in red, not blue counties. Makes it likely the NPAs are not going to give the Democrats much advantage if any. This is such silly analysis. You're the same guy who's claiming that Republican turnout in Miami-Dade is great and is going to hold down Biden's margin while ignoring that NPAs there vote heavily Democratic in Presidential elections. Now you're telling us that NPAs in red counties are likely to vote for Trump for no apparent reason. The amount of crazed and maniacal wishful thinking by the right-wing loons is epic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: You're wishful thinking again and trying to traffic on outliers. Polling at 50% is a pretty predictive threshold. Hillary never polled at 50% nationally or in any battleground state in the general election. Biden has consistency polled there. There were several Pennsylvania polls in the last 2 weeks that had Hillary over 50% in 2016. They are not inherently worse than the RCP average - which mixes polls with different methodologies and party ID adjustments, also varying numbers of voters, to come up with a mythical average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: 90% is pretty normal for a GOP candidate. Democrats historically do worse than that. Hillary got 8% of the Republican vote. UCLA has Biden winning 13% of the early Republican vote. Trump won Independents 46-42. UCLA has Biden crushing in the early independent vote. You can keep ignoring it if you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: There were several Pennsylvania polls in the last 2 weeks that had Hillary over 50% in 2016. Again, wishful thinking and cherry-picking. It's all you do. Clinton consistently polled lower than Biden and consistently below 50%. She was at 46.8% on election day in Pennsylvania. Facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Again, wishful thinking and cherry-picking. It's all you do. Clinton consistently polled lower than Biden and consistently below 50%. She was at 46.8% on election day in Pennsylvania. Facts. The RCP “average” has no mathematical basis in reality as to being an accurate representation of the true situation. It is simply something Sean Trende has successfully sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Bormio said: The RCP “average” has no mathematical basis in reality as to being an accurate representation of the true situation. It is simply something Sean Trende has successfully sold. Polling averages are better than single polls. That's why the polls get averaged. That's certainly a better methodology than your methodology of just cherry-picking polls that make you feel better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Polling averages are better than single polls. That's why the polls get averaged. That's certainly a better methodology than your methodology of just cherry-picking polls that make you feel better. There is no basis to make this claim. The polls are all done differently. A good poll is better than the average of garbage polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: There is no basis to make this claim. There is. You're just a clown. Want to do the math on this? I'm here for you, Dr. Quack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 The MOE on the RCP average is no better than most polls. You told me yourself when you said the Pennsylvania polling error of nearly 6% was normal in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bormio said: If you look at Florida, the NPA vote is turning out in red, not blue counties. Makes it likely the NPAs are not going to give the Democrats much advantage if any. A lot of people at Trump rallies are not Republicans. Very true. I've seen the stats and its usually over 20% of the rallies are not republicans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bormio said: The MOE on the RCP average is no better than most polls. You keep posting irrelevant takes. That is not how accuracy is measured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bormio said: You told me yourself when you said the Pennsylvania polling error of nearly 6% was normal in 2016. "Normal" if there are 11% undecideds/other. Otherwise, you're still just cherry-picking to make your wishes come true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Very true. I've seen the stats and its usually over 20% of the rallies are not republicans This is irrelevant. They're Trump voters regardless. Lafayette County in Florida had 58% registered Democrats but Trump got 70% of the vote there. Those voters are already baked into the cake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: You keep posting irrelevant takes. That is not how accuracy is measured. Actually the confidence interval defines the accuracy of the poll. The actual result should be within the MOE 95% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Bormio said: Actually the confidence interval defines the accuracy of the poll. The actual result should be within the MOE 95% of the time. But this has nothing to do with what we're debating. You're just throwing shit against the wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 Oh look, Biden is at 49.3% in the RCP Pa. average. For the terminally stupid, that is less than 50%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 As anybody would know if they actually followed this stuff, Trump is not going to win Nevada. Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. The Clark Dem firewall is now above 89,500 with a big new batch of mail that posted overnight. This is well above the 73,000-ballot firewall of 2016 and even above the 87,600 extrapolated number taking into account the increase in voters on the rolls since four years ago. If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada. I don't know how much more mail will be returned before Tuesday, nor do I know how many ballots will be rejected (the rate so far shows it doesn’t change the lead very much). But the dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP. More than 400,000 ballots have been cast by mail in Clark County and more than 775,000 overall. The number of votes left for Election Day continues to dwindle, and the chances of an overwhelming GOP turnout to turn this around becomes less and less likely. More later, but the math is just not there for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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