Jump to content

The latest poll numbers...


DBP66

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Bormio said:

Oh look, Biden is at 49.3% in the RCP Pa. average.  For the terminally stupid, that is less than 50%.

Bormio now trying to nitpick 49.3% not being 50%.

😄

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

49.9% on Fivethirtyeight.

Not significant.

Biden is at 50% and even if it was 49% he would break 50% on election day with even terrible percentages from independents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Atticus Finch said:

Bormio now trying to nitpick 49.3% not being 50%.

😄

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

49.9% on Fivethirtyeight.

Not significant.

Biden is at 50% and even if it was 49% he would break 50% on election day with even terrible percentages from independents.

That is simply an inaccurate representation of polling.  He could get less than 49.  The MOE goes both ways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bormio said:

That is simply an inaccurate representation of polling.  He could get less than 49.  The MOE goes both ways.

And he's just as likely to get more than 50% too.

Again, on average.

This is not difficult for normal people to understand.

What's funny is that you employ this argument now but don't take into account that the polling error is just as likely to break the other way and Biden wins by more.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Atticus Finch said:

And he's just as likely to get more than 50% too.

Again, on average.

This is not difficult for normal people to understand.

What's funny is that you employ this argument now but don't take into account that the polling error is just as likely to break the other way and Biden wins by more.

That is true.  I did not say Trump was going to win Pennsylvania, I said he has a reasonable shot.  There is a reason Joe is in Pennsylvania and not Florida.  He has to have Pennsylvania and they are concerned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bormio said:

There is a reason Joe is in Pennsylvania and not Florida.  He has to have Pennsylvania and they are concerned.

Pennsylvania is the tipping point state in 35% of the fivethirtyeight simulations.

So that's why he's there.

Biden needs Florida even less than Pennsylvania.

So that's why he's not there.

Of course they're concerned about winning the election.

No shit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some GOP-leaning pollsters say late learners moving towards Trump.  Not a surprise to hear that but the reason is.  Shutdowns.  People do not want more of these.  I think the European news has cut through here, Trump is hammering that theme in his speech now - I think their polling is picking up on it.  The key is that it is moving YOUNG voters.  They truly do not want lockdowns and Biden has been too wishy washy on the issue.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Souls to the Polls nets Dem 9,000 today in Florida.  GOP won in person voting today despite numerous red counties not open.  All Dem gains were in mail-in.  GOP has 275,000 4/4 voters remaining.  Dem and NPA 179,000 combined.  Appears Dem either have no ground game or have shot their wad.  8.9 million votes cast so far - probably about 2 million to go.  Even if you give Dem 55% of NPA votes to date for about 190,000 net votes (which looks generous based on counties they are from - NPA votes are redder from redder counties), the GOP would need less than 60% of Election Day vote to win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Across co fl ks ky la MD NC nm nv sd republicans have outvoted democrats in person by about 700000 votes 

Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

democrats have about 7 million more votes in but democrats have sent in 15 percent more ballots 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...