What about the British strategy?

[Bormio]

To have elderly isolate themselves, but not otherwise have younger, healthier folks isolate themselves.  The idea is to spread the virus among those who won’t get critically ill, but recover and create marked herd immunity.  That way you can reintroduce high risk patients into the “herd”, but no one will be infected to spread it to them.  With mitigation strategies you could be looking at need for social distancing by the entire population for months or longer - wrecking our economies.  Maybe it burning out in Wuhan is an example of marked herd immunity??

[Blueliner]

18 minutes ago, Bormio said:

To have elderly isolate themselves, but not otherwise have younger, healthier folks isolate themselves.  The idea is to spread the virus among those who won’t get critically ill, but recover and create marked herd immunity.  That way you can reintroduce high risk patients into the “herd”, but no one will be infected to spread it to them.  With mitigation strategies you could be looking at need for social distancing by the entire population for months or longer - wrecking our economies.  Maybe it burning out in Wuhan is an example of marked herd immunity??

Their mitigation strategy is sound. Rational, reasonable, and likely to be highly effective. For the US, the very individuals that run the country industries, "young and healthy people", are barely affected by the virus. And they are now either unemployed or sitting on their couches watching TV (something other than sports) at home waiting to hopefully go back to work soon. I know 2 people that won't have jobs to go back to after this is all said and done. What we are doing in the US is absolutely insane. 

[Bormio]

1 minute ago, Blueliner said:

Their mitigation strategy is sound. Rational, reasonable, and likely to be highly effective. For the US, the very individuals that run the country industries, "young and healthy people", are barely affected by the virus. And they are now either unemployed or sitting on their couches watching TV (something other than sports) at home waiting to hopefully go back to work soon. I know 2 people that won't have jobs to go back to after this is all said and done. What we are doing in the US is absolutely insane. 

The main question from a health care perspective though is “will encouraging people to get sick - the right people - save lives?  It is a debate taking shape in Britain - many epidemiologists are supportive, the editor of the Lancet and many others are horrified.  Isolation has NOT worked in Italy.  The Wuhan experience is key.  Did isolation stop it, or did so many people get mild disease there is now herd immunity.  Chinese cities are extremely crowded, much more than ours in general.  Johnson is going against conventional medical advice - but history is replete with examples of that being wrong on very major things.

[noonereal]

35 minutes ago, Blueliner said:

"young and healthy people", are barely affected by the virus

where did you read this?

I have read this is worse than a flu for those that do get it. 

For 20% it's life and death. 

[noonereal]

1 hour ago, Bormio said:

To have elderly isolate themselves, but not otherwise have younger, healthier folks isolate themselves.  The idea is to spread the virus among those who won’t get critically ill, but recover and create marked herd immunity.  That way you can reintroduce high risk patients into the “herd”, but no one will be infected to spread it to them.  With mitigation strategies you could be looking at need for social distancing by the entire population for months or longer - wrecking our economies.  Maybe it burning out in Wuhan is an example of marked herd immunity??

sounds, sound

one thing I know is wrong, each town, each county, each state, each school, each city having a different attack plan.

We have made the supermarket the central disease proliferation zone and given people time off from school and work to run out and get the virus. 

I don't know the right answer for sure but I know we are fucking up, big time. 

[Bormio]

2 minutes ago, noonereal said:

where did you read this?

I have read this is worse than a flu for those that do get it. 

For 20% it's life and death. 

Daily Beast and NYT have articles today.  The death rate is very low in healthier people.  The feeling of the Brits is stopping the spread is not possible 

[noonereal]

1 minute ago, Bormio said:

Daily Beast and NYT have articles today.  The death rate is very low in healthier people.  The feeling of the Brits is stopping the spread is not possible 

yes the death rate is low for healthy people, I am not questioning that.

 

I am speaking to the severity of the illness.  How sick you get when you are healthy. I have read more than once that it's worse than getting the flu for that same healthy person.  

[Bormio]

Just now, noonereal said:

yes the death rate is low for healthy people, I am not questioning that.

 

I am speaking to the severity of the illness.  How sick you get when you are healthy. I have read more than once that it's worse than getting the flu for that same healthy person.  

The key is the rate of ICU usage in that population is also low.  People are going to get sick anyway 

[noonereal]

1 minute ago, Bormio said:

The key is the rate of ICU usage in that population is also low.  People are going to get sick anyway 

it matters because of the point Blue was making. He insinuated young folks could get sick and be fine, like a cold. No, it is not.,. They will be at home sick. 

You are coming from a different perspective. 

You and I agree. 

[Bormio]

1 minute ago, noonereal said:

it matters because of the point Blue was making. He insinuated young folks could get sick and be fine, like a cold. No, it is not.,. They will be at home sick. 

You are coming from a different perspective. 

You and I agree. 

There may be a slew of mild disease not yet found.

[Bormio]

If Johnson is right about this, there won’t be enough awards to give him.  I just am not qualified to say one way or another.  There are no do-overs.

[noonereal]

8 minutes ago, Bormio said:

There may be a slew of mild disease not yet found.

I know I have had the flu 4 times in my life. I could not get off the bed any time and twice was briefly hospitalized. 

I was young and very healthy so what Blue is talking about makes no sense to me. 

[HawgGoneIt]

3 hours ago, Bormio said:

The main question from a health care perspective though is “will encouraging people to get sick - the right people - save lives?  It is a debate taking shape in Britain - many epidemiologists are supportive, the editor of the Lancet and many others are horrified.  Isolation has NOT worked in Italy.  The Wuhan experience is key.  Did isolation stop it, or did so many people get mild disease there is now herd immunity.  Chinese cities are extremely crowded, much more than ours in general.  Johnson is going against conventional medical advice - but history is replete with examples of that being wrong on very major things.

Michael Osterholm says he believes that once the people of Wuhan are released from home quarantine and return to the streets, shopping, work and etc., that he believes there will be a resurgence of infections, so I'm thinking he doesn't believe what they have done has "burned out" the virus. 

Probably best thing to do is continue daily life as you normally would, with some minor changes like keeping a little more distance between yourself and others whenever possible. 

As he said, this is like trying to stop the wind. It ain't happening. To that extent, I guess what the UK is suggesting is pretty sound, with the exception of people that are obese, have copd, renal issues, high blood pressure and other underlying issues. 

Also, it should be said that some studies from China where people have recovered from the illness, some of those people have a reduced lung function. What if that lung function loss is permanent, but, we just said screw it and lets get the herd infected anyway? 

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards

 

Lot's of what ifs with this thing. As you said somewhere, there are no do overs. 

 

[concha]

2 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Michael Osterholm says he believes that once the people of Wuhan are released from home quarantine and return to the streets, shopping, work and etc., that he believes there will be a resurgence of infections, so I'm thinking he doesn't believe what they have done has "burned out" the virus. 

Probably best thing to do is continue daily life as you normally would, with some minor changes like keeping a little more distance between yourself and others whenever possible. 

As he said, this is like trying to stop the wind. It ain't happening. To that extent, I guess what the UK is suggesting is pretty sound, with the exception of people that are obese, have copd, renal issues, high blood pressure and other underlying issues. 

Also, it should be said that some studies from China where people have recovered from the illness, some of those people have a reduced lung function. What if that lung function loss is permanent, but, we just said screw it and lets get the herd infected anyway? 

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards

 

Lot's of what ifs with this thing. As you said somewhere, there are no do overs. 

 

 

I believe there are at least two strains of this shit out there.

I would guess that leaves open the real threat of reinfection.

 

[HawgGoneIt]

Just now, concha said:

 

I believe there are at least two strains of this shit out there.

I would guess that leaves open the real threat of reinfection.

 

Probably. Without a lot of worldwide cooperation where everyone is being very honest with each other it's difficult to discern. Like we saw the much higher death rate in Iran, but, nobody really knows how honest they're being. 

I think we can pretty well trust Italy's reports, and maybe China's somewhat, although, I wouldn't whole heartedly trust them having seen the viral video of the officials walking the streets while people scream from the windows that it's a staged lie. 

I know that there have been cases all around my area at this point. A couple from Valdosta, one from Albany and one from Pelham. A friend's mom is a part of the ICU at Emory in Atlanta and apparently one from Albany an older person, one older person from Valdosta and someone under 18 from Pelham are all now at Emory. The under 18 needing Emory is the one that is concerning to me. I'd like to know some details on that one but apparently because the person is a minor there is none to be had. 

[Bormio]

11 minutes ago, concha said:

 

I believe there are at least two strains of this shit out there.

I would guess that leaves open the real threat of reinfection.

 

Possible, but generally suspicious of coincidences in medicine.  Host factors can drastically alter the clinical presentation.  There certainly can be bugs with subtle differences, but immunity to one generally confers immunity to the other.

[concha]

1 minute ago, Bormio said:

Possible, but generally suspicious of coincidences in medicine.  Host factors can drastically alter the clinical presentation.  There certainly can be bugs with subtle differences, but immunity to one generally confers immunity to the other.

 

Hopefully so.

 

[Blueliner]

3 hours ago, noonereal said:

where did you read this?

I have read this is worse than a flu for those that do get it. 

For 20% it's life and death. 

From CBS:

So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have not released a summary of basic demographic information about the people who have died, but according to information collected by ABC News' Medical Unit, the majority of deaths have been among people in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

Whatever you are reading....stop reading it.

[BigDrop]

There is a very simplistic analogy here that may be appropriate.  Bronchitis in your 20’s or 30’s vs  your ‘70’s or ‘80’s.  Same with pneumonia and many other viruses.

Frankly, this is frightening.  I’ve never seen anything like this and I’ve lived through a lot.

[HawgGoneIt]

https://amp.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

 

 

[Troll]

8 hours ago, BigDrop said:

 

Frankly, this is frightening.  I’ve never seen anything like this and I’ve lived through a lot.

Well riddle me this Batman...

What is big difference for this pandemic ?.....than say the last 5 or 6 pandemics in the past decade...🤔

I've lived thru dozens of pandemics...

Never seen every Gov all at once decide it's a great idea to shut down their own economies.

 

PS...They have not given a remotely reasonable answer yet in the MSM news...

.....in either the viral or conspiracy realms 🙄

[HawgGoneIt]

8 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

https://amp.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

 

 

Kim stressed that public trust was crucial to the government’s strategy. “The more transparently and quickly accurate information is provided, the more the people will trust the government,” he said. “They will act rationally for the good of the community at large.”

[noonereal]

9 hours ago, Blueliner said:

From CBS:

So far, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have not released a summary of basic demographic information about the people who have died, but according to information collected by ABC News' Medical Unit, the majority of deaths have been among people in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

Whatever you are reading....stop reading it.

You idiot, we are not speaking of strictly deaths.

You lost so you did this intentionally. 

Very Trumpian.

 

 

[HawgGoneIt]

20 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Kim stressed that public trust was crucial to the government’s strategy. “The more transparently and quickly accurate information is provided, the more the people will trust the government,” he said. “They will act rationally for the good of the community at large.”

Clearly our experience has been totally the opposite of this thus far. We were told that we had a hunch this thing goes away by April and it's just the sniffles.

As reality started setting in, people have gotten very, very irrational. Buying out stores. Etc. 

I'd like to add, if you are buying 140 rolls of toilet paper for a potential 14 day quarantine, you needed a doctor before we ever knew anything about covid-19. 

[15yds4gibberish]

10 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

https://amp.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

 

 

@HawgGoneIt

Nice link.  Thank you.  Highlighting a couple of points for no particular reason 😉

‘A SPECTACULAR FEAT’

The linchpin of South Korea’s response has been a testing programme that has screened more people per capita for the virus than any other country by far. By carrying out up to 15,000 tests per day, health officials have been able to screen some 250,000 people – about one in every 200 South Koreans – since January.

...

The massive volume of data collected has enabled the authorities to pinpoint clusters of infection to better target their quarantine and disinfection efforts, and send members of the public text-message alerts to inform them of the past movements of infected patients in their area – even down to the names of shops and restaurants they visited.

...

In the United States, where the authorities are unable to confirm the number of tests since they are being carried out by a patchwork of federal, state and private laboratories, the total was estimated to be fewer than 5,000 in a survey of available data by The Atlantic.

William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in the US, said South Korea had pulled off a “spectacular” feat that was allowing health officials to track the virus and assess its intensity.

“We are unsure where our infection is and how intensely it is being transmitted in the US and we are only now starting to test,” he said.