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What about the British strategy?


Bormio

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15 hours ago, Bormio said:

To have elderly isolate themselves, but not otherwise have younger, healthier folks isolate themselves.  The idea is to spread the virus among those who won’t get critically ill, but recover and create marked herd immunity.  That way you can reintroduce high risk patients into the “herd”, but no one will be infected to spread it to them.  With mitigation strategies you could be looking at need for social distancing by the entire population for months or longer - wrecking our economies.  Maybe it burning out in Wuhan is an example of marked herd immunity??

Well, herd immunity is real...

I don't claim to be an epidemiologist, so I'd like to see some links to articles/studies where epidemiologists think this is a smart move, because otherwise it sounds like a terrible idea.  

Back of the envelope high level calculation to explain my initial skepticism.  According to google, there are just under 64,000,000 people in the UK.  For this virus,  I don't claim to know what % of the population has to be immune for herd immunity to kick in.  Common ranges for other things, as I understand it, are typically somewhere between 40-70% depending on infectiousness etc..  So that would mean:

  • At 40%, 25,600,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 50%, 32,000,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 60%,  38,400,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 70%,  44,800,000 need to be infected and recover.

So at the low end of the range, the basic idea is to identify and infect the 25,600,000 lowest risk individuals, while keeping them isolated from the other 38,400,000 for at least 2 weeks.  How do those logistics work?  Otherwise, this sounds fairly indistinguishable from doing not much at all, hoping for the best -- A recipe to spike the curve, overwhelming the health care system even more, causing more harm rather than less.

Maybe it would be better to get to herd immunity through vaccine...

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2 hours ago, noonereal said:

You idiot, we are not speaking of strictly deaths.

You lost so you did this intentionally. 

Very Trumpian.

 

 

I could give a fuck if I (or your dumbass for that matter) gets a fucking cold.. I wanna know about people dying because THAT is what the lying, unethical media, you and the rest of your drams drama queen friends are scaring and trying to quarantine the whole world over. You’re a tool.

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2 minutes ago, Blueliner said:

I could give a fuck if I (or your dumbass for that matter) gets a fucking cold.. I wanna know about people dying because THAT is what the lying, unethical media, you and the rest of your drams drama queen friends are scaring and trying to quarantine the whole world over. You’re a tool.

 

FWIW

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu."

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1 minute ago, concha said:

 

FWIW

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu."

It’s insane. Question. Where’s captain-factless- the -drama-queen’s and the rest of the chicken little’s outrage and desperate concern? I guess stored in the same closet when Obama was sitting on his ass during the H1N1 outbreak. 

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5 hours ago, Blueliner said:

I could give a fuck if I (or your dumbass for that matter) gets a fucking cold.. I wanna know about people dying because THAT is what the lying, unethical media, you and the rest of your drams drama queen friends are scaring and trying to quarantine the whole world over. You’re a tool.

you are sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo stupid.

it is a life/death struggle for 20%

the other 80% generally are worse off than a bad flu

you are posting as a complete idiot. Total fool ass hole. Why? 

You are one sick fuck, honest. Sick as they come. Everything is a conspiracy jerk off. Moron. 

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5 hours ago, Blueliner said:

It’s insane. Question. Where’s captain-factless- the -drama-queen’s and the rest of the chicken little’s outrage and desperate concern? I guess stored in the same closet when Obama was sitting on his ass during the H1N1 outbreak. 

let me ask you, spinless, what should we do? Ignore the situation?

I want an answer, how does a spineless fuck like you advocate dealing with this? 

I n fact, I demand you answer. 

You dumb fuck. 

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6 hours ago, 15yds4gibberish said:

Well, herd immunity is real...

I don't claim to be an epidemiologist, so I'd like to see some links to articles/studies where epidemiologists think this is a smart move, because otherwise it sounds like a terrible idea.  

Back of the envelope high level calculation to explain my initial skepticism.  According to google, there are just under 64,000,000 people in the UK.  For this virus,  I don't claim to know what % of the population has to be immune for herd immunity to kick in.  Common ranges for other things, as I understand it, are typically somewhere between 40-70% depending on infectiousness etc..  So that would mean:

  • At 40%, 25,600,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 50%, 32,000,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 60%,  38,400,000 need to be infected and recover.
  • At 70%,  44,800,000 need to be infected and recover.

So at the low end of the range, the basic idea is to identify and infect the 25,600,000 lowest risk individuals, while keeping them isolated from the other 38,400,000 for at least 2 weeks.  How do those logistics work?  Otherwise, this sounds fairly indistinguishable from doing not much at all, hoping for the best -- A recipe to spike the curve, overwhelming the health care system even more, causing more harm rather than less.

Maybe it would be better to get to herd immunity through vaccine...

how does herd work if you do not build up immunization to Coronavirus when you have it?

(I have heard over and over you can catch it over and over) 

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6 minutes ago, noonereal said:

how does herd work if you do not build up immunization to Coronavirus when you have it?

(I have heard over and over you can catch it over and over) 

I think this is probably urban legend - viruses do not behave like that.  You might continue with a positive test for a while - does not mean you are infectious.

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42 minutes ago, noonereal said:

let me ask you, spinless, what should we do? Ignore the situation?

I want an answer, how does a spineless fuck like you advocate dealing with this? 

I n fact, I demand you answer. 

You dumb fuck. 

Settle down there a champ or we'll have to get a go fund me page created for a new keyboard. It worked for crusty LOL

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52 minutes ago, noonereal said:

let me ask you, spinless, what should we do? Ignore the situation?

I want an answer, how does a spineless fuck like you advocate dealing with this? 

I n fact, I demand you answer. 

You dumb fuck. 

I'll answer stop being a fucking pussy and live your life. If you die you die.

I'll be damned if this bullshit will change my life one fucking iota. I've not and won't change a fucking thing.

Fuck Wuhan coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Bormio said:

I think this is probably urban legend - viruses do not behave like that.  You might continue with a positive test for a while - does not mean you are infectious.

This is what I have been insisting but strong sources claim you can.

I know I had the measles as a kid twice. ?????

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37 minutes ago, thc6795 said:

I'll answer stop being a fucking pussy and live your life. If you die you die.

I'll be damned if this bullshit will change my life one fucking iota. I've not and won't change a fucking thing.

Fuck Wuhan coronavirus

Is this approach fair to others? 

We do have an obligation to look to the greater good. 

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44 minutes ago, I AM IRONMAN said:

Settle down there a champ or we'll have to get a go fund me page created for a new keyboard. It worked for crusty LOL

Think I got his attention? Lol

the guy is so dumb it pains me to read his posts

  • I am really just doing community service in interacting with him.🤾‍♂️
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2 minutes ago, noonereal said:

Is this approach fair to others? 

We do have an obligation to look to the greater good. 

 

I refuse to live my life in fear. I just returned from the gym had a great workout. Then sat in the sauna it felt great. I'll be doing it again tomorrow morning. 

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1 minute ago, thc6795 said:

 

I refuse to live my life in fear. I just returned from the gym had a great workout. Then sat in the sauna it felt great. I'll be doing it again tomorrow morning. 

Fair enough. Let me ask you , do you know have an obligation to distance yourself from others, especially the eldery?

(Philosophica ly.   speaking)

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1 hour ago, noonereal said:

let me ask you, spinless, what should we do? Ignore the situation?

I want an answer, how does a spineless fuck like you advocate dealing with this? 

I n fact, I demand you answer. 

You dumb fuck. 

"I demand it". Get a load of this shit. You're a fucking turd, tough guy🤣. You're a joke. 

 

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Just now, noonereal said:

I knew an idiot like you could not support your diatribe.

You're not worth it shit dick. My stance is plain as day. Simply go back, if it doesn't pain you too much, and figure it out. You're "smart"....and angry, little, scared, unethical, and lying little pussy. 🤣 

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3 minutes ago, Blueliner said:

You're not worth it shit dick. My stance is plain as day. Simply go back, if it doesn't pain you too much, and figure it out. You're "smart"....and angry, little, scared, unethical, and lying little pussy. 🤣 

I am not angry, little, scared or unethical. Further, my anatomy does not include a vagina. 

you are correct, I am inordinately intelligent

your stance is born of ignorance, arrogance and insecurity. 

 

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1 minute ago, noonereal said:

I am not angry, little, scared or unethical. Further, my anatomy does not include a vagina. 

you are correct, I am inordinately intelligent

your stance is born of ignorance, arrogance and insecurity. 

 

LOL! Whatever you say, Mr. narcissist. A pussified one at that. And I may be a lot of things (lots of flaws), but ignorant, insecure, and arrogant isn't part of my make up. 

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3 minutes ago, noonereal said:

I am not angry, little, scared or unethical. Further, my anatomy does not include a vagina. 

you are correct, I am inordinately intelligent

your stance is born of ignorance, arrogance and insecurity. 

 

Sorry not you know I think you're a good seed but you're being a pussy bro.

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