The Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

47 minutes ago, Troll said:

Good advise right there......👆

I might even go as far as to say beginners should be buying 12 months out and selling by the end of your window at 2-3 months out if they were planning on being on that 'safer' side.....

(of course that is when your picks are solid)

LOL at those 'suckers' who are 'all in' with their short stack in the last month...😰

When I first started using options back in the late 1990s, I started with LEAPS, typically with 18 months to expiration. One of my first winning trades doing that was in Applied Materials. Back then the stock was trading in the $60s, and I did not have as much capital as I do now. I remember buying 2 contracts that were moderately out of the money. It was at the start of one of the typical semiconductor cycles, and I figured correctly that AMAT, KLAC and the like were probably going to at least double before it was over. I believe I ended up making 300% on each of the two contract that were bought for $1,800 each. Not a lot of money, but a nice decent return that gave me the confidence to take a deeper look into options. 

I found that the LEAPS 18 months out traded like a lower priced stock ($10 to $20 type issue) with somewhat similar volatility for the first 9 months of that duration. The thing is, that the time value remained relatively intact (wasting only very slowly) till the options had about 7 months life left in them. In most instances, if your trade was correct and its timing reasonable, you would probably be ready to book your profits before that happened. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

Ohhh God make it stop 

 

 

 

[DarterBlue]

14 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Ohhh God make it stop 

 

 

 

What??

[imaGoodBoyNow]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

What??

Lol 😂 really bad morning, but I knew this was coming, the stock went up 3 straight days with 0 dip it was just a matter of time for a bad day

 

 

it is what it is, nothing to do but wait this one out

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Lol 😂 really bad morning, but I knew this was coming, the stock went up 3 straight days with 0 dip it was just a matter of time for a bad day

 

 

it is what it is, nothing to do but wait this one out

As you continue your path of learning this game, you will have to figure out who you are with respect to the markets: Are you a day trader? If not, are you a swing trader? If not, are you a position trader (this is what I am)? Or are you an investor? Depending on the answer to these questions, what you do in the situation you describe will be very, very different. 

I will post more on this over the weekend. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

31 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

As you continue your path of learning this game, you will have to figure out who you are with respect to the markets: Are you a day trader? If not, are you a swing trader? If not, are you a position trader (this is what I am)? Or are you an investor? Depending on the answer to these questions, what you do in the situation you describe will be very, very different. 

I will post more on this over the weekend. 

I don’t know what I am yet, I just got so much to learn first , I wanted to do day trading ,  but I found a few stock that I know when the economy is somewhat back then those stocks are gonna sky rocket.. so my original plan was day trade and make quick $$ but now I’m just gonna wait  on them, 

 

wait for stocks to jump up in a few months then ima sell sell sell ,

 

buy my dump truck cash and with most of the money I get delivering mulch and stones and doing demo and Cleanouts ima invest most of that money back into my portfolio so I can have consistent capital to work with

[DarterBlue]

13 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I don’t know what I am yet, I just got so much to learn first , I wanted to do day trading ,  but I found a few stock that I know when the economy is somewhat back then those stocks are gonna sky rocket.. so my original plan was day trade and make quick $$ but now I’m just gonna wait  on them, 

 

wait for stocks to jump up in a few months then ima sell sell sell ,

 

buy my dump truck cash and with most of the money I get delivering mulch and stones and doing demo and Cleanouts ima invest most of that money back into my portfolio so I can have consistent capital to work with

At the end of the day, the method and methodology you use should depend on two things: 1. Is it compatible with your personality. 2. Do I have sufficient time to devote to it. Some methods and strategies require that it becomes a full-time job. Others can be used effectively with part-time attention. All, require work and discipline to be successful.

[Cat_Scratch]

On 5/28/2020 at 2:38 AM, DarterBlue said:

I used more colorful language than that when it happened back then. The wicked stock in question was Conseco. I had this idea that on this one trade (stock and options), I was going to quadruple my money, quit my job and trade for a living. Well, when the smoke cleared, I had blown what was then about 40% of my trading capital in one trade. 

If it was easy everybody would do it. I lost tons when 911 happened.

[DarterBlue]

16 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

If it was easy everybody would do it. I lost tons when 911 happened.

It is not easy. But with hard work and sufficient interest, like anything else, most can actually become proficient. However, many don't have the time, and, if they do either don't have the patience or are not willing to put in the work.

Back when I made that trade, I figured that with my wife working, if I had $500,000 of trading capital, I had a shot at surviving and generating enough profits annually to justify giving up my day job. It took two years to recover from the Conseco loss (get back to where I was). A couple years later, as part of the settlement of a class action suit, I got back about $400 of my losses. One of the company's principal officers, actually did some jail time. The situation never garnered the attention Enron did, but the it was similar.

Back then, I had not properly refined my loss mitigating techniques.  

[Troll]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Back then, I had not properly refined my loss mitigating techniques.  

Loss management technique #1.....

Nothing else matters, if management are scumbags 🙄

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, Troll said:

Loss management technique #1.....

Nothing else matters, if management are scumbags 🙄

Very, very true! Back then, I had the belief that if I had done meticulous homework, I had to be right. Boy did I learn from that trade ...😁 

[Cat_Scratch]

2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

It is not easy. But with hard work and sufficient interest, like anything else, most can actually become proficient. However, many don't have the time, and, if they do either don't have the patience or are not willing to put in the work.

Back when I made that trade, I figured that with my wife working, if I had $500,000 of trading capital, I had a shot at surviving and generating enough profits annually to justify giving up my day job. It took two years to recover from the Conseco loss (get back to where I was). A couple years later, as part of the settlement of a class action suit, I got back about $400 of my losses. One of the company's principal officers, actually did some jail time. The situation never garnered the attention Enron did, but the it was similar.

Back then, I had not properly refined my loss mitigating techniques.  

I didn't/don't have patience and hated seeing money evaporate when stocks turned. It's why I let someone else manage my investments. I do have trust issues though and I trust Edward Jones to some extent. I do pull money on occasions and asks for meetings quarterly/Bi-annual to adjust if needed. I've not had a meeting since last November. Like I said earlier, I invest 25% in aggresive stocks but will not let it ride when they start to lose by more than 4 or 5% . My long term slow growth is steady at about 2 or 3 %, better than a bank. My aggresive can get up to 7 or 8 %. At 25,000K or more that grows fast but I also lose fast, so I have to move some over to long term or the risk becomes unbearable for me. I don't like to gamble... even though I feel luck is a small factor in investing, paying attention seems twice as important IMO.

[Cat_Scratch]

The Coulda - Shoulda of my investments was America Online in the very early stages. My wife didn't think we should have invest half our savings into a company that talks over phone lines by computer... Her reason was "why would people talk to each other on a computer when they can just pick up the phone and call?" Boy does she ever regret it. LOL. 

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, Cat_Scratch said:

The Coulda - Shoulda of my investments was America Online in the very early stages. My wife didn't think we should have invest half our savings into a company that talks over phone lines by computer... Her reason was "why would people talk to each other on a computer when they can just pick up the phone and call?" Boy does she ever regret it. LOL. 

Yeah. So, too, did Time Warner which essentially bought them out. Now if AOL had remained independent, who knows how they would have fared? But with TW in charge, it proved to be a horrendous investment.

Many large acquirers make very poor acquisition investments. Closer to home, in the late 1990s, Sears bought out a local termite and pest control company. As part of the due diligence process, I and a two other employees from my firm, did some work on behalf of Sears. Five years later, the acquired company folded. This was a company that had been in business over 50 years and had been profitable for everyone of them. No wonder Sears is on the brink of failure today. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Yeah. So, too, did Time Warner which essentially bought them out. Now if AOL had remained independent, who knows how they would have fared? But with TW in charge, it proved to be a horrendous investment.

Many large acquirers make very poor acquisition investments. Closer to home, in the late 1990s, Sears bought out a local termite and pest control company. As part of the due diligence process, I and a two other employees from my firm, did some work on behalf of Sears. Five years later, the acquired company folded. This was a company that had been in business over 50 years and had been profitable for everyone of them. No wonder Sears is on the brink of failure today. 

I know sears and jc penny is shit but how do you see stores like Macy’s Kohl’s and Nordstrom fairing in the next year

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I know sears and jc penny is shit but how do you see stores like Macy’s Kohl’s and Nordstrom fairing in the next year

Funny you ask that. A childhood girlfriend of mine who has spent the majority of her working career at Macy's called to ask me whether she should invest in it. Now this woman had never bought a stock in her life and her only exposure to the market was in her 401k plan. I spent a few hours going through M's Securities and Exchange Commission's filings and said the following to her: "The company has about 6-9 months cash on hand assuming that Covid-19 has cut sales in half. If we get back to normal before then, then Macy's at current prices (it was trading at $5.50 when she called me), will probably be a good investment. But if not, then it will need to be able to borrow or it will need a bailout."

I suggested that she could put some money into it, but it should be no more than what she could easily afford to lose. Today, M trades about a $1 higher than it was when she and I spoke. My feelings are the same. Most of the states they operate in have opened up to some degree. I could see it going higher over the next six months to a year. Longer term I have my reservations. I like M more than KSS and JWN. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

50 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

I didn't/don't have patience and hated seeing money evaporate when stocks turned.

Ya tell me about it

 

My portfolio dropped 22%

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed out the month of May mostly higher today on much higher volume. Further exhibiting bullish behavior, most indices closed very near day highs. At the close, the range was from a loss of .52% on the Mid Cap index to a gain of 1.47% on the NASDAQ 100. Advancing stocks led 17-16 on the NASDAQ, but declining stocks led 15-14 on the NYSE. Although secondary stocks lagged today (the Russell also lost over .4%), secondary growth stocks did quite well, thank you. This at least partially explains why breadth was not particularly negative despite the MID and Russell losing ground. So, what do I make of the day’s action? Decidedly bullish. Why do I say that? The market really rocketed upwards after POTUS’s Press Conference. Now I happened to listen to it and there was plenty stuff that I found concerning. However, it is not what I think, it is what the big boys with bank think. The lack of DJT scrapping the China trade deal is all they cared about. Selah!

 On the day, I did very well, as all three positions were up. The two stocks TTD and ZM had banner days with ZM up about 9%. The options position was also profitable but not as much as the S&P’s close would imply. This is because some of the current price was baked in after yesterday’s close. With the gains today, I was up about $7,500 on the week, recouping almost all of last week’s misadventures. I may add to my positions early next week, as currently I am only about 20% invested. No, I won’t go all in, as I have reservations about the market and I am also retired and not the plunger I used to be. But I could easily add two positions here.

[FootballGuy]

2 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed out the month of May mostly higher today on much higher volume. Further exhibiting bullish behavior, most indices closed very near day highs. At the close, the range was from a loss of .52% on the Mid Cap index to a gain of 1.47% on the NASDAQ 100. Advancing stocks led 17-16 on the NASDAQ, but declining stocks led 15-14 on the NYSE. Although secondary stocks lagged today (the Russell also lost over .4%), secondary growth stocks did quite well, thank you. This at least partially explains why breadth was not particularly negative despite the MID and Russell losing ground. So, what do I make of the day’s action? Decidedly bullish. Why do I say that? The market really rocketed upwards after POTUS’s Press Conference. Now I happened to listen to it and there was plenty stuff that I found concerning. However, it is not what I think, it is what the big boys with bank think. The lack of DJT scrapping the China trade deal is all they cared about. Selah!

 On the day, I did very well, as all three positions were up. The two stocks TTD and ZM had banner days with ZM up about 9%. The options position was also profitable but not as much as the S&P’s close would imply. This is because some of the current price was baked in after yesterday’s close. With the gains today, I was up about $7,500 on the week, recouping almost all of last week’s misadventures. I may add to my positions early next week, as currently I am only about 20% invested. No, I won’t go all in, as I have reservations about the market and I am also retired and not the plunger I used to be. But I could easily add two positions here.

With me being new on the investing side, should I focus on the 1 day trend or the 1 year trend? especially when deciding which stock to invest in... 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, FootballGuy said:

With me being new on the investing side, should I focus on the 1 day trend or the 1 year trend? especially when deciding which stock to invest in... 

That is a good question. The answer depends on what kind of trader you intend to be. If a day trader or swing trader, you need a combination of intraday charts (in minute or two minute intervals) and maybe five day and twenty one day charts. If you are a position trader, you need six month, one year and monthly charts over a two year period. 

If I was advising a young trader, I would suggest he/she start off with position trading first (a position trader as I define it, intends to keep his winners for at least weeks and often months and every so often, when they find a big winner, for as much as a couple of years). Why? I feel it is harder to day trade when you have little market experience unless, as in the old days, you were a floor clerk/runner and was able to take in the action from a ringside seat. Why is it harder for a beginner to day trade? There is a lot more stress as to do so effectively, you have to pretty much monitor positions tick by tick. This is a very emotional experience and is at least one reason why, many of them are drug addicts. Unless you have nerves of steel and ice in your veins, this is very difficult for a beginner to do. Having said that, I am not implying that one cannot successfully day trade. Just that you should have some market experience first before you do. 

In short the charts you look at should mostly reflect your horizon. The same applies to the indicators you use. They should be at a minimum tailored to how long you expect to be in a vehicle. 

[Cat_Scratch]

5 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Ya tell me about it

 

My portfolio dropped 22%

I feel your pain...

[DarterBlue]

17 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I could easily add two positions here.

Potential buys I am looking at:

Repurchases: TEAM, LLY, and JD

New Buys Growth: SEDG, MSFT, SFM, CMG, TMO and ADI

New Buys Cyclicals: LCII, UAL, H and GM

Whatever I do, I will not purchase more than two positions. The goal is to contain risk, but make money. Often the two are in conflict. So, it is possible one will balance off the other if I go the two position route. TEAM is in the process of consolidating its gains and may be building a very powerful pattern. But if this assessment is correct, it may need several more days (possibly over a week) to complete it. Most of the others are, in my opinion, buyable here.

The following caveat applies: I am a position trader looking for short to intermediate term profits. My long term views of all the above may be at variance with my assessment of their intermediate term prospects. None of these positions represent long term investment endorsements!

[DarterBlue]

22 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Potential buys I am looking at:

Repurchases: TEAM, LLY, and JD

New Buys Growth: SEDG, MSFT, SFM, CMG, TMO and ADI

New Buys Cyclicals: LCII, UAL, H and GM

Whatever I do, I will not purchase more than two positions. The goal is to contain risk, but make money. Often the two are in conflict. So, it is possible one will balance off the other if I go the two position route. TEAM is in the process of consolidating its gains and may be building a very powerful pattern. But if this assessment is correct, it may need several more days (possibly over a week) to complete it. Most of the others are, in my opinion, buyable here.

The following caveat applies: I am a position trader looking for short to intermediate term profits. My long term views of all the above may be at variance with my assessment of their intermediate term prospects. None of these positions represent long term investment endorsements!

As of now, UAL will be bought at a limit price of $27.60. The other position will likely be ADI or SHOP which was not on the above list, but which has a compelling chart. If SHOP, I don't intent to pay more than $747 for it. ADI's purchase price is more flexible. The stock has a tighter trading range and anywhere within it is fair game. 

@imaGoodBoyNow @FootballGuy I think UAL is a screaming buy here subject to not paying more than $27.60. It has had massive accumulation at the lows and I don't think there is much downside risk, but the upside could be at least 60% in the next six weeks. I like those odds. If it works out, I owe one of you dinner. 

[FootballGuy]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

As of now, UAL will be bought at a limit price of $27.60. The other position will likely be ADI or SHOP which was not on the above list, but which has a compelling chart. If SHOP, I don't intent to pay more than $747 for it. ADI's purchase price is more flexible. The stock has a tighter trading range and anywhere within it is fair game. 

@imaGoodBoyNow @FootballGuy I think UAL is a screaming buy here subject to not paying more than $27.60. It has had massive accumulation at the lows and I don't think there is much downside risk, but the upside could be at least 60% in the next six weeks. I like those odds. If it works out, I owe one of you dinner. 

Definitely gonna buy several shares of UAL in the next minute or so

[golfaddict1]

@DarterBlue, fyi from this weekend’s Barron’s paper with SW mention.