Bormio Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 "Looking at Biden's poll numbers is like walking in and seeing your grandma naked" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: "Looking at Biden's poll numbers is like walking in and seeing your grandma naked" Dems only chance is fake media and to cheat/steal the election…BUT Americas eyes are wide open this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 Biden losing Hispanic vote…BIG TIME. That’s a death sentence.., Hispanic folks who came here legally, and didn’t get a 9k debit card, free phone etc are pissed. As are the college grads who paid for their tuition…waiving tuition debt, in an election year…yeah not too obvious. Curious as to how low the demonrats will go….as low as necessary….sad and laughable 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 25 Author Report Share Posted March 25 2 minutes ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Biden losing Hispanic vote…BIG TIME. That’s a death sentence.., Hispanic folks who came here legally, and didn’t get a 9k debit card, free phone etc are pissed. As are the college grads who paid for their tuition…waiving tuition debt, in an election year…yeah not too obvious. Curious as to how low the demonrats will go….as low as necessary….sad and laughable CNN had a poll that among Hispanic voters - 49% trusted Trump more on immigration vs 24% trusting Biden more. Among Hispanics! Also Carville said "preachy females" run the Democrat party - what he neglected to say is that some of those preachy females are actually men 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 Hopefully Republicans have enough sense to learn from being sucker punched in 2020 with the cheat- in-ballots and ballot harvesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 13 hours ago, Bormio said: CNN had a poll that among Hispanic voters - 49% trusted Trump more on immigration vs 24% trusting Biden more. Among Hispanics! Is this more or less relevant than your previous attempts at analyzing polls? 👇 On 5/4/2020 at 8:37 PM, Bormio said: Survey from Harvard Kennedy school of government shows Biden’s favorable/unfavorable at 34/47 among voters 18-29. More young voters have a very favorable view of Trump than Biden. Combine that with softness with Latinos and maybe even some Sanders voters and tell me how Biden wins. He needs more than African Americans and women. If Trump comes even close to splitting the youth vote ... I just don’t think Biden can overcome that. Registered voter polls are very capable of being misleading. It is about who actually votes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommygun58 Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 14 hours ago, Bormio said: "Looking at Biden's poll numbers is like walking in and seeing your grandma naked" Haven't seen his wife Mary Matalin(R)in a long time,hope she is still working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
World Citizen Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 15 hours ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Biden losing Hispanic vote…BIG TIME. That’s a death sentence.., Hispanic folks who came here legally, and didn’t get a 9k debit card, free phone etc are pissed. As are the college grads who paid for their tuition…waiving tuition debt, in an election year…yeah not too obvious. Curious as to how low the demonrats will go….as low as necessary….sad and laughable Dear lord...stop watching news that lies to you. If you really believe that shit and have no interest in ever saying anything correct continue watching what you watch. Just know that you look like a complete fool. None of you buddies who vote like you will ever tell you the truth and they ignore it and let you go on believing in bullshit. Possible they are as gullible as you so who knows. You can actually check on this stuff and learn for yourself but we both know you won't, you will continue to get info from people who know the truth but lie to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 From left-leaning 538.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 There are articles and videos discussing Biden's eroding support amongst voters of color from the NYT, MSNBC, Vox, WaPo, Guardian, CNN, 538 etc etc... This is FAR from a manufactured story from the right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader12-0 Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 8 hours ago, Nolebull813 said: Hopefully Republicans have enough sense to learn from being sucker punched in 2020 with the cheat- in-ballots and ballot harvesting. If the Dems want to cheat, they will cheat and they will succeed. No one has done anything to prevent it. But then again, the GOP is running such bad candidates that they probably won’t need to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, World Citizen said: Dear lord...stop watching news that lies to you. If you really believe that shit and have no interest in ever saying anything correct continue watching what you watch. Just know that you look like a complete fool. None of you buddies who vote like you will ever tell you the truth and they ignore it and let you go on believing in bullshit. Possible they are as gullible as you so who knows. You can actually check on this stuff and learn for yourself but we both know you won't, you will continue to get info from people who know the truth but lie to you. Wow, you are one blind 🐑. Wrong once again but you’re too stupid and stubborn to realize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 55 minutes ago, concha said: There are articles and videos discussing Biden's eroding support amongst voters of color from the NYT, MSNBC, Vox, WaPo, Guardian, CNN, 538 etc etc... This is FAR from a manufactured story from the right. No, it's just a manufactured story from the herd media who are selling a horse race narrative that, currently, has zero evidence in the voting record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 17 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: No, it's just a manufactured story from the herd media who are selling a horse race narrative that, currently, has zero evidence in the voting record. Incorrect. https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, concha said: Incorrect. https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support 🎤 drop! These lunatic lefties hate facts, and will refute if it doesn’t fit their narrative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 15 hours ago, concha said: Incorrect. https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support According to that graph, the percentage of the minority vote is the same as it was 20 years ago. In the intervening years, the Republicans actually had *less* of the minority vote than they did at the beginning and end of that range. In fact, the Republican share of the vote in 2020 was almost the exact same as it was in 1984. So basically the percentage of the minority vote has not moved in 40 years. The arrow at the end is total shit. He's comparing polling to voting records. It's shoddy as hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 14 hours ago, I AM IRONMAN said: 🎤 drop! These lunatic lefties hate facts, and will refute if it doesn’t fit their narrative. concha doesn't understand graphs. That much is clear. He's also a narrative toady so he employs wishful thinking even in the face of incontrovertible data that the minority vote is the exact same as it was 40 years ago. 👇 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 24 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: According to that graph, the percentage of the minority vote is the same as it was 20 years ago. In the intervening years, the Republicans actually had *less* of the minority vote than they did at the beginning and end of that range. In fact, the Republican share of the vote in 2020 was almost the exact same as it was in 1984. So basically the percentage of the minority vote has not moved in 40 years. The arrow at the end is total shit. He's comparing polling to voting records. It's shoddy as hell. Andy apparently doesn't read the small type. THis is all pre-election voting intention data. So the arrow at the end isn't "crap". Also, Andy ignores the other data in the article (which comes from a solidly blue organization, btw), ...these trends are ominous for Democrats. In the Bronx, where less than 10 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white, Democrats went from winning the presidential race by 83 points in 2012 to winning the gubernatorial race by only 55 points in 2022, a 28-point swing. And there was a 29-point swing against Democrats in Queens — which is just 26 percent non-Hispanic white — between 2012 and 2022. ...Modeling from Catalist, a Democratic firm, found that Democrats went from getting 97 percent of the two-party Black vote (that is, the vote excluding third parties) in 2012 to 90 percent in 2020. And they dropped from 70 percent of the Hispanic vote to 63 percent over the same period It's nice that Andy thinks it's all crap, but Democrats in general are very uncomfortable by the fact that there IS data indicating shifts from MANY sources arriving at the same conclusions independently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 20 minutes ago, concha said: Andy apparently doesn't read the small type. This is all pre-election voting intention data. So the arrow at the end isn't "crap". Yes, my bad. Here's the relevant example of unlike vs. unlike data. And it’s true that there are some things you could critique. Burn-Murdoch is mixing and matching data from different polls, and the observation from 2024 is based solely on the recent New York Times / Siena College poll, which has a relatively small sample size; I’d rather that he’d have taken an average of different surveys. So, yes, the arrow is complete shit. The methodology is awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 20 minutes ago, concha said: Also, Andy ignores the other data in the article (which comes from a solidly blue organization, btw), ...these trends are ominous for Democrats. In the Bronx, where less than 10 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white, Democrats went from winning the presidential race by 83 points in 2012 to winning the gubernatorial race by only 55 points in 2022, a 28-point swing. And there was a 29-point swing against Democrats in Queens — which is just 26 percent non-Hispanic white — between 2012 and 2022. Also, this has been argued before around here and this is even *less* relevant than the previous example. This methodology is even shoddier given that they're comparing a 2012 Presidential Election to a 2022 Gubernatorial Election. Not to mention the obvious point that the Hispanic population in the Bronx is distinct from Hispanic populations elsewhere. And in a state that's not competitive. Just like Dade County in Florida. The relevant Hispanic populations are in Nevada and Arizona. Two *completely* different Hispanic populations than the Bronx and Dade County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Basically, a ton of wishful thinking about a voting block that has voted the same exact way for 40 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 Just now, Atticus Finch said: Basically, a ton of wishful thinking about a voting block that has that voted the same exact way for 40 years. It's not thinking. It's polling. By many independent entities. Left, right, center. Unless you think that there is a conspiratorial polling cabal with a dream of minorities voting Republican. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 12 minutes ago, concha said: It's not thinking. It's polling. When the polling doesn't match the voting record then it's prudent to just wait until you have more votes to analyze. But you're not interested in that. You're interested in the narrative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 13 minutes ago, concha said: By many independent entities. Left, right, center. Actually, your link proves that the 2024 number is based on one single poll. And the pre-2024 numbers are based on a "mixing and matching" of polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted March 26 Report Share Posted March 26 14 minutes ago, concha said: Unless you think that there is a conspiratorial polling cabal with a dream of minorities voting Republican. I don't. I *know* that there are Republicans who are dreaming this into existence. But I don't think there's a conspiracy of polling orgs. They just oversample and overweight stuff like this even though there's no voting data to back it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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