OK Pops, CP had all year... let’s discuss :)

[golfaddict1]

I’ll be adding a spreadsheet with some analysis and let’s discuss and compare.  

In terms of the 8 polls, the most excluded from the compilation poll top 25 (my rank based on polls/pts hybrid) was 7 schools, while the least was 3.  

Full transparency (excluding my errors) here.  Every rank by each source... 

Looking fwd to opinions on the various polls and especially how CP and our forum PrepGridiron did and what flaws they/PrepGridiron have and pluses.  

Where can PrepGridiron forum improve would be of interest to me.  

This can go in many directions, but hopefully we can get some good takes from our solid football posters out there.  

@Sammyswordsman, just a suggestion but could all these schools be created for a final tier thread?   I think there were 47 schools total ranked/rated by one of the 8 polls top 25.  Feel like a quick review?  There are some clear break points.  I think gsb mentioned this in a prior post I did.  Up to you.  

In my comp poll I took polls numbers preference over pts in compilation.  For example, DLS had all 8 polls included and will take spots over more pts.  

 

 

[golfaddict1]

Posted Jan. 5th, in final top 25 thread  (rank with tied pts based on better top record results or lackof)

compilation.xlsx

Final comp poll...  I adjusted the rankings based on what I felt was a fair balance of polls inclusion and then ranked by points.    

[golfaddict1]

Least schools excluded from compilation 25:   MaxPreps and PrepNation with 3,  PrepForce and PrepGridiron with 4, Massey with 6 & CalPreps, USA Today and HSFBA with 7. 

Polls that voted for one school solo:  MaxPreps (Katy),  CalPreps (North Little Rock & Pickerington North), USA Today (Pearl, Martinsburg and West Point),  HSFBA (Dutch Fork, St Joseph Prep and Archbishop Wood),  Massey  (Bishop Miege) 

Schools in top 25 without a top 250 win - Brentwood Academy (excluded by MaxPreps, CalPreps, PrepNation and PrepGridiron)

Schools in top 25 without a top 100 win  - Ben Davis (included in all 8 polls),  Trinity KY (excluded by CalPreps and Massey),  South Pointe (excluded by CalPreps, Massey and PrepGridiron)...

Outside 25 but got 4 polls without a top 100 win (excluded were USA Today, HSFBA, Massey and PrepForce)... yes Calpreps included Rome as did PrepGridiron, MaxPreps and PrepNation).  

*If ranked by polls only,  Rome and Trotwood Madison would have been in the comp 25.  St Louis only had 3 polls, but imo because they had higher rankings and one poll less is not a biggie  (also 8-0 top 250), deserved the spot with higher pt total also.    BUt... Lake Travis and Hoban had 3 polls and more pts than those 2 schools and didn't make the 25.   It's my rodeo, my rules.    

MaxPreps weak links imo is adding Katy and excluding Cy-Fair, otherwise, IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Lake Travis and Rome

CalPreps I won't comment about at this time as I've posted enough already... would like to read others opinions

USAToday could be the worst of the bunch 

PrepNation weak link imo is Wake Forest, otherwise IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Rome 

HSFBA, I think Fisher's secret sauce is stale... he adds criteria to Massey's site and I dunno, this year doesn't look too good imo. 

Massey I dig the states spread but not buying it  

PrepForce weak link imo is Owasso and Cathedral Prep, otherwise IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Miami Central 

PrepGridiron no comment at this time... would like to read others opinions  

 

[golfaddict1]

Some last notes regarding the schools outside the 25 in this comp poll setup... 

Lake Travis (MaxPreps, HSFBA and PrepGridiron included)... 1-2 top 100, 2-3 top 250  stands out  at first glance 

Trotwood Madison beat PC, and had a 1-0 top 25 record and 2-0 overall top 250... PC 4-1 top 100,  6-1 top 250  got the comp nod

Mission Viejo 0-1 top 25 but 3-1 top 100 and 4-1 top 250 (just 2 polls dug them CalPreps and Massey, so there's that)  

N Little Rock 1-0 top 100, 4-0 top 250  (CP #7 only taker)

 

Some last notes regarding the schools in the top 25 in this comp poll setup...

Even Ben Davis got CalPreps attention at #11, every other poll had them at #6 or #7 except USA Today at #8  (John Curtis on field, ?'s off field)  2-0 vs. top 250... St. Louis was 8-0 vs top 250 as comparison (#25 in comp) and Lincoln-Way East was 3-0 vs. top 250 (just 2 polls dug them, USA Today and Massey).

SFA had one win vs top 25 and 250 and it was a throttling of Bingham... (included by all)

Corona Centennial 2-2 top 100, 4-2 250   (excluded by USA Today, PrepNation and HSFBA)

Bishop Gorman 1-2 top 100, 4-2 250  (included by all)

DLS 2-2 top 100, 4-2 250  (included by all)

SJC 0-2 top 100, 4-2 250  (excluded by CalPreps)

Venice 0-1 top 100, 3-1 250  (excluded by CalPreps)

 

[Sammyswordsman]

[Sammyswordsman]

27 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

I don't mean to be an ass but I watch some of these teams play and there is no way many should be considered to be among the best in the land. I sit and watch many of these schools play and wonder how they get the recognition they get. The so called top tier teams, according to you guy's, simply are not all that. I watch football as much as the next man and can articulate the game with them also but what you have as top notch would suffer mass humiliation vs. some of the countries lesser known teams. Some would get spanked by total unknowns nationally. 

Good take.  Legit coming from a Texas guy.  Please provide examples so we can discuss.

 

i watched some video too and think there are a few teams on the list that don't belong

[Pops]

2 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

I’ll be adding a spreadsheet with some analysis and let’s discuss and compare.  

In terms of the 8 polls, the most excluded from the compilation poll top 25 (my rank based on polls/pts hybrid) was 7 schools, while the least was 3.  

Knee jerk reaction 

1). Is it a good thing or bad to be different?  IMHO it just depends on each situation and the answer will also be an opinion 

2). I think it’s remarkable that an algorithm got 18 of 25 the same as humans out of 14,000+ teams, although I’m sure every pollster uses CP in their analysis so begs a Little chicken or egg question

3). Humans tend to follow the herd and be static — no other reason any or all went with JC in ‘12 (and why ALL went with btw over SJB and allen in 2013) — point being a contributing factor in them being similar 

not ignoring everything else but may not have any more time today — just moving son into Madison WI — what a great town!

wuick PS I don’t see much distinction between CP and human top 25s — my biggest defense of CP is their ranking of the other 14,000+ schools 

[golfaddict1]

22 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

I don't mean to be an ass but I watch some of these teams play and there is no way many should be considered to be among the best in the land. I sit and watch many of these schools play and wonder how they get the recognition they get. The so called top tier teams, according to you guy's, simply are not all that. I watch football as much as the next man and can articulate the game with them also but what you have as top notch would suffer mass humiliation vs. some of the countries lesser known teams. Some would get spanked by total unknowns nationally. 

Examples?  

 

16 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Good take.  Legit coming from a Texas guy.  Please provide examples so we can discuss.

 

i watched some video too and think there a more a few teams on the list that don't belong

ULab got no love from LA... they looked pretty solid overall.   That would be my one example of a Rodney Dangerfield squad.  West Point got one vote.  That’s another imo.  

[Pops]

1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Least schools excluded from compilation 25:   MaxPreps and PrepNation with 3,  PrepForce and PrepGridiron with 4, Massey with 6 & CalPreps, USA Today and HSFBA with 7. 

Polls that voted for one school solo:  MaxPreps (Katy),  CalPreps (North Little Rock & Pickerington North), USA Today (Pearl, Martinsburg and West Point),  HSFBA (Dutch Fork, St Joseph Prep and Archbishop Wood),  Massey  (Bishop Miege) 

Schools in top 25 without a top 250 win - Brentwood Academy (excluded by MaxPreps, CalPreps, PrepNation and PrepGridiron)

Schools in top 25 without a top 100 win  - Ben Davis (included in all 8 polls),  Trinity KY (excluded by CalPreps and Massey),  South Pointe (excluded by CalPreps, Massey and PrepGridiron)...

Outside 25 but got 4 polls without a top 100 win (excluded were USA Today, HSFBA, Massey and PrepForce)... yes Calpreps included Rome as did PrepGridiron, MaxPreps and PrepNation).  

*If ranked by polls only,  Rome and Trotwood Madison would have been in the comp 25.  St Louis only had 3 polls, but imo because they had higher rankings and one poll less is not a biggie  (also 8-0 top 250), deserved the spot with higher pt total also.    BUt... Lake Travis and Hoban had 3 polls and more pts than those 2 schools and didn't make the 25.   It's my rodeo, my rules.    

MaxPreps weak links imo is adding Katy and excluding Cy-Fair, otherwise, IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Lake Travis and Rome

CalPreps I won't comment about at this time as I've posted enough already... would like to read others opinions

USAToday could be the worst of the bunch 

PrepNation weak link imo is Wake Forest, otherwise IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Rome 

HSFBA, I think Fisher's secret sauce is stale... he adds criteria to Massey's site and I dunno, this year doesn't look too good imo. 

Massey I dig the states spread but not buying it  

PrepForce weak link imo is Owasso and Cathedral Prep, otherwise IMO very solid.  PrepGridiron agrees with Miami Central 

PrepGridiron no comment at this time... would like to read others opinions  

 

Good stuff 

I look forward to getting to more  later 

 

[golfaddict1]

4 minutes ago, Pops said:

Knee jerk reaction 

1). Is it a good thing or bad to be different?  IMHO it just depends on each situation and the answer will also be an opinion

debatable... not  good or bad at face value imo.  Agreed here.   

2). I think it’s remarkable that an algorithm got 18 of 25 the same as humans out of 14,000+ teams, although I’m sure every pollster uses CP in their analysis so begs a Little chicken or egg question

Most care from 500 in or even less.  Since CP works it it’s cool but matters little in our threads here. I’ll take any novelty info   

3). Humans tend to follow the herd and be static — no other reason any or all went with JC in ‘12 (and why ALL went with btw over SJB and allen in 2013) — point being a contributing factor in them being similar 

Agreed and some big players name wise may not belong 

not ignoring everything else but may not have any more time today — just moving son into Madison WI — what a great town!

Good luck and enjoy!  

 

[zulu1128]

29 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

I don't mean to be an ass but I watch some of these teams play and there is no way many should be considered to be among the best in the land. I sit and watch many of these schools play and wonder how they get the recognition they get. The so called top tier teams, according to you guy's, simply are not all that. I watch football as much as the next man and can articulate the game with them also but what you have as top notch would suffer mass humiliation vs. some of the countries lesser known teams. Some would get spanked by total unknowns nationally. 

Which teams?

Which games did you watch them?

Why don’t they belong?

Spare no details...thanks!

 

[RedZone]

43 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

 

 

ULab got no love from LA... they looked pretty solid overall.   

UHigh is stacked this year. They will be even better. Senior heavy team. These guys have been together forever.

It's possible UHigh will have 7 4* prospects among their cast and should send between 16-17 to the next level.

OL Dylan Rathcke just picked up Louisville and Kentucky offers. His best to date. LSU may pull the trigger at their Camp later this summer.

https://247sports.com/Player/Dylan-Rathcke-90202

 

Those polls are basically shit.

[RedZone]

The "tiers" are even goofier....

[ECHS05]

1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

You suck at this.

Idk if you watched Allen vs LT... But drop Allen to tier 2 and lift Ben Davis to tier 1..

Actually, I dont care... Do what you want33k3$)pee4eee÷

[ECHS05]

8 minutes ago, RedZone said:

UHigh is stacked this year. They will be even better this year. Senior heavy team. Tese guys be together forever.

It's possible UHigh will have 7 4* prospects among their cast and should send between 16-17 to the next level.

OL Dylan Rathcke just picked up Louisville and Kentucky offers. His best to date. LSU may pull the trigger at their Camp later this summer.

https://247sports.com/Player/Dylan-Rathcke-90202

 

Those polls are basically shit.

UHigh should start in the 20-30 range 

Would love to see them expose one of the overranked Arkansas schools... North Little Rock or Greenwood.

Louisville Trinity KY vs UHigh LA would be a good OOS game. Id bet with UHigh.

[Sammyswordsman]

1 minute ago, ECHS05 said:

You suck at this.

Idk if you watched Allen vs LT... But drop Allen to tier 2 and lift Ben Davis to tier 1..

Actually, I dont care... Do what you want33k3$)pee4eee÷

Only problem is that Ben Davis didn't play anyone near the caliber of Lake Travis.

 

[HawgGoneIt]

Each poll has some head scratchers imo. 

Generally not worth a ton of nit-picking honestly. 

I agree with Pops assessment that the human polls tend to follow the pack so-to-speak. I honestly believe that the only reason that CP looks halfway decent while being compared to human polls is that, due to how many schools there are in the country and most pollsters limited knowledge of all the areas in the country, almost every pollster uses CP for their baseline. 

I think they go in, adjust here and there, off of the CP initial poll. That's the general feel I get. I believe that if not for that, CP would have a lot of different teams at the end than would the human polls. 

I did really like the way that DJ claimed his poll worked. Figure which teams were the best in the power states. Shuffle them as was your best guess and then go from there. My problem with that was I wasn't totally sure that was truly how he did it (claiming teams inputting from each state). He also held on to mistakes too long. 

I believe this is how the Prepgridiron Poll is trying to work(the method DJ claimed to use). My problem with it is it is always late. Most polls are done and out by Tuesday and we still usually are awaiting the PrepGridIron poll on Thursday. I know that's the nature of it because it's a hobby poll more or less, just giving honest critique. 

[golfaddict1]

25 minutes ago, RedZone said:

UHigh is stacked this year. They will be even better this year. Senior heavy team. These guys have been together forever.

It's possible UHigh will have 7 4* prospects among their cast and should send between 16-17 to the next level.

OL Dylan Rathcke just picked up Louisville and Kentucky offers. His best to date. LSU may pull the trigger at their Camp later this summer.

https://247sports.com/Player/Dylan-Rathcke-90202

 

Those polls are basically shit.

Scale for LA may need adjusting from the algorithms and humans.  I’ll send Spock and Shatner to the bar for a few hrs and let them work it out over Lemmys.    

[Sammyswordsman]

5 minutes ago, Sportsnut said:

I am not a Texan.

I am from Georgia.

My comments are not focused on any particular team or state. My issue is that I don't see many of the teams ranked in the top 100 of any poll that I can say is better than what I can watch traveling around the state on friday night. I don't believe the top 25 nationally, have earned it. Why? Because they have not played anyone other than the usual names that share the distinction of being named the best without playing everyone. No way DeLaSalle wins that many games in Georgia. No way Mater Dei dominates. 

I guess it is just me but I will not and could not say with a clear mind that those teams are better than what I have here. I am in no way taking away from the talent that permeates these teams but I will not concede the teams in many of these polls to be superior to those I watch. 

I have watch the Jersey boys of the BNU

The Trinity gang

Norcal 

Socal

Texas

and of course Florida.

just my thoughts.

I guess we will see how much I know come fall.

Appreciate your observations.  Sorry I thought you were a Texas guy.

Question tho.  Why would you doubt that Mater Dei would not dominate last year?  Since they never trailed in any of their 10 games vs Top 100. 

[golfaddict1]

13 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Each poll has some head scratchers imo. 

Generally not worth a ton of nit-picking honestly. 

I agree with Pops assessment that the human polls tend to follow the pack so-to-speak. I honestly believe that the only reason that CP looks halfway decent while being compared to human polls it that, due to how many schools there are in the country and most pollsters limited knowledge of all the areas in the country, almost every pollster uses CP for their baseline. 

I think they go in, adjust here and there, off of the CP initial poll. That's the general feel I get. I believe that if not for that, CP would have a lot of different teams at the end than would the human polls. 

I did really like the way that DJ claimed his poll worked. Figure which teams were the best in the power states. Shuffle them as was your best guess and then go from there. My problem with that was I wasn't totally sure that was truly how he did it (claiming teams inputting from each state). He also held on to mistakes too long. 

I believe this is how the Prepgridiron Poll is trying to work(the method DJ claimed to use). My problem with it is it is always late. Most polls are done and out by Tuesday and we still usually are awaiting the PrepGridIron poll on Thursday. I know that's the nature of it because it's a hobby poll more or less, just giving honest critique. 

One thought to the finish line is how much does it matter to pollsters how you finish vs how you start.. and/or weighing the season overall.   It’s easy to forget that teams don’t play OOS in the playoffs, so that state scaling thingy term is always going to peak out and say boo!   

What peaks out the most is that it’s truly a mythical guess as there are such few data point correlations with OOS.  Even when we have it, we prefer stratomatic or predict a matchup over an actual result in the season.  

 

[Eddyr2]

3 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

Posted Jan. 5th, in final top 25 thread  (rank with tied pts based on better top record results or lackof)

compilation.xlsx

Final comp poll...  I adjusted the rankings based on what I felt was a fair balance of polls inclusion and then ranked by points.    

I am going to miss the MD17 team

🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐

[HawgGoneIt]

16 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

One thought to the finish line is how much does it matter to pollsters how you finish vs how you start.. and/or weighing the season overall.   It’s easy to forget that teams don’t play OOS in the playoffs, so that state scaling thingy term is always going to peak out and say boo!   

What peaks out the most is that it’s truly a mythical guess as there is such few data point correlations.   Even when we have it, we prefer stratomatic or predict a matchup over an actual result in the season.  

 

I enjoy the polls as much as anyone. I think it's a lot of fun arguing about it all. 

I honestly don't think any of the polls are willing to accept a mistake in their poll early. CP included. CP may be the worst at it actually, and then the human polls mostly stay the course as well, although some are much quicker to recognize the "miss" and start adjusting, but, never enough quickly enough imo. They ease out of the mistake so as to not readily admit how bad it was. I don't really care, it's just an observation as I have been watching the polls for several years now. 

The nature of CP won't let it recognize a mistake as early on, which is why you see guys like Pops saying we shouldn't put much stock in it until October. This leads me to wonder, if that is true, which I do sort of believe... Why in the actual hell is almost every human poll so damn similar to the stupid thing? 

 

I totally agree with Sportsnut that there are teams out there each year that aren't getting recognition that probably deserve it. Now, all of us that follow heavily understand the reasoning for this is that it takes more than a flash in the pan year to get ranked. It takes being at or near the top for a length of time, then putting together enough of a schedule to ring some pollster's bells. Nobody could ever guess annually which little team from which state will be the one missing the recognition they deserve. That's why I like these message boards actually. 

I think the pollsters would do well to pay attention to threads like the ones Caj posts showing talent laden teams that aren't brand names in Louisiana. I think we all should in all honesty. There are teams like that out there in many states. I do also wish those teams played schedules that at least connected in some ways to other teams we know more about, but that is a human issue to me. We just can't let go of the name brand teams, so we feel the need to have any ranked team be connected to them in some form. Not sure if there is a good way to fix that issue honestly. 

The teams that hover near the top for the longest are always going to be ranked and have the best shots at MNC's. It's just how it is. 

[RedZone]

10 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Scale for LA may need adjusting from the algorithms and humans.  I’ll send Spock and Shatner to the bar for a few hrs and let them work it out over Lemmys.    

UHigh will be tested by 5A Champ Zachary.

Could gets tests from Baton Rouge Catholic and Southern Lab. Other than that no one will compete with the Cubs or shouldn't. Louisiana football always throws a few curves though. 5A Mandeville is always coached well and could surprise.

Zachary is pretty much the favorite in 5A again this year. It's the one team everyone seems to agree on with their 5A Preseason Polls.

I read a rumor that UHigh and Zachary will be a ESPN game.......Haven't confrmed it yet though.

Zachary is led by the fastest Dual-threat QB in the nation. If someone knows a faster one, I'd like to see him. Zachary doesn't have the name players UHigh has, but they are loaded too in their own way. This Zachary team may be the fasted team in Louisiana (offense and defense). 

QB Keilon Brown

https://247sports.com/Player/Keilon-Brown-46050507

Keilon Brown: few highlights from 5A Champ game. He can fly and has a arm too.

http://www.hudl.com/v/28Qjik

.

[Pops]

26 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Sorry I thought you were a Texas guy.

Never ask someone if they’re from TX

id they are, they’ll tell you

if not, no need to embarrass them 

[Sammyswordsman]

10 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I enjoy the polls as much as anyone. I think it's a lot of fun arguing about it all. 

I honestly don't think any of the polls are willing to accept a mistake in their poll early. CP included. CP may be the worst at it actually, and then the human polls mostly stay the course as well, although some are much quicker to recognize the "miss" and start adjusting, but, never enough quickly enough imo. They ease out of the mistake so as to not readily admit how bad it was. I don't really care, it's just an observation as I have been watching the polls for several years now. 

The nature of CP won't let it recognize a mistake as early on, which is why you see guys like Pops saying we shouldn't put much stock in it until October. This leads me to wonder, if that is true, which I do sort of believe... Why in the actual hell is almost every human poll so damn similar to the stupid thing? 

 

I totally agree with Sportsnut that there are teams out there each year that aren't getting recognition that probably deserve it. Now, all of us that follow heavily understand the reasoning for this is that it takes more than a flash in the pan year to get ranked. It takes being at or near the top for a length of time, then putting together enough of a schedule to ring some pollster's bells. Nobody could ever guess annually which little team from which state will be the one missing the recognition they deserve. That's why I like these message boards actually. 

I think the pollsters would do well to pay attention to threads like the ones Caj posts showing talent laden teams that aren't brand names in Louisiana. I think we all should in all honesty. There are teams like that out there in many states. I do also wish those teams played schedules that at least connected in some ways to other teams we know more about, but that is a human issue to me. We just can't let go of the name brand teams, so we feel the need to have any ranked team be connected to them in some form. Not sure if there is a good way to fix that issue honestly. 

The teams that hover near the top for the longest are always going to be ranked and have the best shots at MNC's. It's just how it is. 

This is exactly why I invite crowd sourcing for the Tiers.  When posters provide an alert about a good team flying under the radar, we can watch film and see how they move, level of competition, etc. and then insert them into a Tier.