767

[noonereal]

Yep, the market dropped 767 points today. Tomorrow it will lose more. It has been flat for nearly a two full years now.

Businesses are hurting from the war with China.

meantime, rocket man is having a party and Americans are being slaughtered like never before.

We are destroying the environment but the price of both gas and oil have risen since TRump was elected.

Americans are in the middle of a semi warm civil war.

WTF, how can anyone support this guy?

Did I mention TPP and Iran, how he fucked these things up? 

You don't even have to say Russia.

 

 

 

[Horsefly]

8 minutes ago, noonereal said:

Yep, the market dropped 767 points today. Tomorrow it will lose more. It has been flat for nearly a two full years now.

Businesses are hurting from the war with China.

meantime, rocket man is having a party and Americans are being slaughtered like never before.

We are destroying the environment but the price of both gas and oil have risen since TRump was elected.

Americans are in the middle of a semi warm civil war.

WTF, how can anyone support this guy?

Did I mention TPP and Iran, how he fucked these things up? 

You don't even have to say Russia.

 

 

 

Thank you.  I've been saying this all day.  He is running America into the ground like he has done to some of his past businesses.  Everything is a mess right now.

[15yds4gibberish]

42 minutes ago, noonereal said:

Yep, the market dropped 767 points today. Tomorrow it will lose more...

There was a lot in your post that I'd love to talk about, and hopefully we will sometime, but I want to focus on this one for a second as US-China is a rapidly developing real time situation which makes it both unknowable and worthy of our attention (and @Horseflymentioned it in 2 threads now).  

An hour or two ago, Mnuchin declared that China is a currency manipulator...so that will likely make tomorrow's market action...interesting (this is where we could use @DarterBlue's expertise but he has left this side of the board for reasons I completely understand).  A few points

• China was a currency manipulator back in 2010/11, but not now.  If anything, they've been keeping the renminbi artificially high.  What they did last night was leave it a little more to market forces.  While there are many reasons to criticize Chinese policy, currency manipulation isn't one of them right now.
• Tariff man's trade war is failing in it's own goals at least as Trump see's them -- The Chinese aren't crying uncle and the trade deficit is rising, not falling. (oh and never forget that tariffs are a tax on American consumers).
• China let it's currency drop by about 2% -- Which really isn't that big a deal relative to US and China GDP.
• But the markets are reacting as if it is a big deal -- why?
• Nobody knows, but one guess would be that to the markets what once looked like a temporary trade war is now looking like it's going to go on for awhile -- Trump refuses to give up on his naive belief that trade wars are good and easy to win.  Meanwhile, Xi is clearly signalling that China is not Canada or Mexico -- It's too big and too proud to submit to what it considers bullying.

Nobody knows what is going to happen.  For all I know, markets could go up tomorrow again.  But keep an eye on it.  Til now the trade war has had some nasty but somewhat contained consequences -- Let's hope it doesn't get out of hand now. 

[concha]

47 minutes ago, noonereal said:

Yep, the market dropped 767 points today. Tomorrow it will lose more. It has been flat for nearly a two full years now. [Had previous presidents stood up to China, this one wouldn't have to. He has balls and is willing to stand up to Chinese trade manipulations and intellectual property theft rather than continue to have our nation take it up the ass.]

Businesses are hurting from the war with China. See above

meantime, rocket man is having a party and Americans are being slaughtered like never before. Untrue.. Untwist your panties please.

We are destroying the environment but the price of both gas and oil have risen since TRump was elected.  These are world commodities. You know that, right?

Americans are in the middle of a semi warm civil war.  When one side face plants in an election and then spends over two years pushing a bullshit conspiracy theory against the winner...

WTF, how can anyone support this guy?  Easily.  The economy is pretty strong. Record unemployment. Wages rising. Manufacturing returning...

Did I mention TPP and Iran, how he fucked these things up?  He's fixing fucked up shit.

You don't even have to say Russia.  Only stupid people do that.

 

 

 

...

[noonereal]

4 minutes ago, concha said:

...

I agree, the china problem goes back. So does most everything. The israel problem, the whole middle east, Korea... Al presidents have problems handed down from decades prior. 

Trump is simply going about it all wrong. 

 

TPP was a win for China. Iran, like Korea, has had no upside. Very much the opposite. 

[zulu1128]

Watching you people lose your shit every time the market corrects is never not funny. 
 

I’m not sure why NOR was to lazy to even look it up, but the market is up 18% over the past two years. 

How some of you even manage to live your lives while simultaneously foaming at the mouth 24/7 is at least somewhat impressive I guess. 

[Horsefly]

1 minute ago, zulu1128 said:

Watching you people lose your shit every time the market corrects is never not funny. 
 

I’m not sure why NOR was to lazy to even look it up, but the market is up 18% over the past two years. 

How some of you even manage to live your lives while simultaneously foaming at the mouth 24/7 is at least somewhat impressive I guess. 

Not exactly reacting to the market, that's a symptom.  The bigger issue is with China and the wayahead in dealing with China, because actions can definitely impact global economic growth.  The market is responding because confidence is lacking.

so what does trump do going forward, what's the next move as China is allowing their currency to devalue?

[zulu1128]

4 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

Not exactly reacting to the market, that's a symptom.  The bigger issue is with China and the wayahead in dealing with China, because actions can definitely impact global economic growth.  The market is responding because confidence is lacking.

so what does trump do going forward, what's the next move as China is allowing their currency to devalue?

I guess we’ll see when we see. We can certainly count on you guys to keep us posted every time Orange Man scratches his nuts. 

[noonereal]

26,616 January 26th 2018

Today, 25,717 

 

As I said, the market has been stagnant for nearly two years. 

 

[Horsefly]

7 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

I guess we’ll see when we see. We can certainly count on you guys to keep us posted every time Orange Man scratches his nuts. 

Insightful input thanks.  👍🏼

[NotBigdaddybloom]

47 minutes ago, 15yds4gibberish said:

There was a lot in your post that I'd love to talk about, and hopefully we will sometime, but I want to focus on this one for a second as US-China is a rapidly developing real time situation which makes it both unknowable and worthy of our attention (and @Horseflymentioned it in 2 threads now).  

An hour or two ago, Mnuchin declared that China is a currency manipulator...so that will likely make tomorrow's market action...interesting (this is where we could use @DarterBlue's expertise but he has left this side of the board for reasons I completely understand).  A few points

• China was a currency manipulator back in 2010/11, but not now.  If anything, they've been keeping the renminbi artificially high.  What they did last night was leave it a little more to market forces.  While there are many reasons to criticize Chinese policy, currency manipulation isn't one of them right now.
• Tariff man's trade war is failing in it's own goals at least as Trump see's them -- The Chinese aren't crying uncle and the trade deficit is rising, not falling. (oh and never forget that tariffs are a tax on American consumers).
• China let it's currency drop by about 2% -- Which really isn't that big a deal relative to US and China GDP.
• But the markets are reacting as if it is a big deal -- why?
• Nobody knows, but one guess would be that to the markets what once looked like a temporary trade war is now looking like it's going to go on for awhile -- Trump refuses to give up on his naive belief that trade wars are good and easy to win.  Meanwhile, Xi is clearly signalling that China is not Canada or Mexico -- It's too big and too proud to submit to what it considers bullying.

Nobody knows what is going to happen.  For all I know, markets could go up tomorrow again.  But keep an eye on it.  Til now the trade war has had some nasty but somewhat contained consequences -- Let's hope it doesn't get out of hand now. 

Omg...why do gas prices go up at the pump when something happens to refineries, even though the gas has already been refined? Because people are taking profits! There is money to be made even when the market corrects itself as long as you know what you’re doing. 

The stock market is no longer a strong indicator of economic stability, because people are taking profits much like an ATM! Then they rebuy stocks after their price falls! The Obama administration propped the market up for years...or should I say the blue chip companies to steady a volatile situation for 8 years! Where’s your contempt?

Oh yeah...assholes!

[Horsefly]

4 minutes ago, noonereal said:

26,616 January 26th 2018

Today, 25,717 

 

As I said, the market has been stagnant for nearly two years. 

 

Of course it is.

[zulu1128]

21,800 at the beginning of August 2017. 
 

25,717 today. 
 

17.9% increase. 

Do better, Eduardo. 
 

 

[zulu1128]

1 minute ago, Horsefly said:

Insightful input thanks.  👍🏼

Sure. Watching you try and speculate is fun too. 

[Horsefly]

Just now, zulu1128 said:

Sure. Watching you try and speculate is fun too. 

Why respond back to me with anything now?  I gave you a chance to give an educated answer and you said "we'll see when we see". you showed yourself that you aren't knowledgeable on the subject to add nothing more than what you did. Now you want to be a smart ass..for no reason..  you are a goofy fella and like I said before the most forgettable fella on this site. 

 Move along man.   😂 

[DarterBlue]

I said I would comment on the market if and only if I sensed that there was clear and compelling evidence that we were making a major shift in direction. I don't see the current weakness as a compelling shift in direction. However, as , @15yds4gibberish whom I respect mentioned me in his post, I have chosen to provide my 10 cents as to why I don't see a compelling shift in direction below.

If the current action were occurring on little news, I would view this a the beginning of a major change in direction. However, similar to May when the averages experienced their largest correction since bottoming the day after Christmas, the current weakness is directly traceable to POTUS'S administration rekindling the trade war with China in a very public way while negotiations were actually taking place. This, I believe, was driven by a misguided belief that the way to extract maximum concessions from China is with bluster. I believe this is a huge mistake and if POTUS continues along this line we will have a significant downturn in the averages once again into bear market territory. 

With that said, back in late May, POTUS backed off of his bluster (a cooling off period if you will), and the market had such a great June (the best in many years) that the headline indices all hit all time highs (secondary stocks and the NYSE did not). The question is: will POTUS change his stance once again? For if he does, the current weakness will most likely be quickly reversed now that the Fed is cutting rates. If Trump were a normal President, the odds hugely favor him meeting China halfway (somewhere where both sides can claim victory). But he is not a normal President, so I have no earthly idea what he will do. Back in early May I covered all my longs which I had initiated from late December through early February and went short via Puts. Needless to say that was a mistake, as I took the loss on the Puts in early July. I have been on the sidelines since. Fortunately, the Puts were a half a position (mainly due to the fact that the turbulence was POTUS driven), so the losses I took were not very large. Since I covered the Puts, I have been in cash. My son and his wife are currently visiting from China. Their perspective on the matter, which I have chosen not to mention, is interesting. However, given the fact that I am currently playing host and that next week I visit Canada for my brother's birthday and other matters till late August, while I was tempted to short the market Friday, I did not. If you are distracted and can't properly monitor your positions you should stand aside, particularly when your conviction is limited.

One final comment. @zulu1128 stated that the market is up over 18% in the last two years. What he failed to mention was that this entire gain (more or less) was made in the first six months of that two year period. Since the market made its first significant top at the end of January 2018, it has essentially gone nowhere. Now from a bullish perspective many of the averages did hit all time highs in the August to early October 2018 period and again in June 2019. However, so far each time this has happened, weakness has followed. And, this is why we have gone nowhere in the past 18 months. It remains to see whether the current weakness will last or not. Unfortunately, this will probably rest in the hands of DJT. And, if nothing else (there is much else actually, but I shall refrain), he is a most erratic President in recent history. So who knows! What I do know is that if he plays stubborn and this drags out leading to a bear market and perhaps a recession, he will probably not win a second term. So there is that to consider ... stay tuned.   

PS: I will add one other comment. As of today's close, a market indicator I follow very closely (an oscillator) registered a very oversold reading (top 90+%). So, at the very least a bounce is probably due. If we don't get one, that would be very bearish. But I would not recommend shorting the market in the morning. By the same token if you are already short, I probably would not book my profits here either. Even if things get resolved because one or the other party blinks, it will probably be at least a few more weeks before that happens. So, we probably have not made a bottom yet.

[noonereal]

19 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

21,800 at the beginning of August 2017. 
 

25,717 today. 
 

17.9% increase. 

Do better, Eduardo. 
 

 

Why do you use peoples names here?

You have no respect for anyone or anything.

 

[Horsefly]

4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I said I would comment on the market if and only if I sensed that there was clear and compelling evidence that we were making a major shift in direction. I don't see the current weakness as a compelling shift in direction. However, as , @15yds4gibberish whom I respect mentioned me in his post, I have chosen to provide my 10 cents as to why I don't see a compelling shift in direction below.

If the current action were occurring on little news, I would view this a the beginning of a major change in direction. However, similar to May when the averages experienced their largest correction since bottoming the day after Christmas, the current weakness is directly traceable to POTUS'S administration rekindling the trade war with China in a very public way while negotiations were actually taking place. This, I believe, was driven by a misguided belief that the way to extract maximum concessions from China is with bluster. I believe this is a huge mistake and if POTUS continues along this line we will have a significant downturn in the averages once again into bear market territory. 

With that said, back in late May, POTUS backed off of his bluster (a cooling off period if you will), and the market had such a great June (the best in many years) that the headline indices all hit all time highs (secondary stocks and the NYSE did not). The question is: will POTUS change his stance once again? For if he does, the current weakness will most likely be quickly reversed now that the Fed is cutting rates. If Trump were a normal President, the odds hugely favor him meeting China halfway (somewhere where both sides can claim victory). But he is not a normal President, so I have no earthly idea what he will do. Back in early May I covered all my longs which I had initiated from late December through early February and went short via Puts. Needless to say that was a mistake, as I took the loss on the Puts in early July. I have been on the sidelines since. Fortunately, the Puts were a half a position (mainly due to the fact that the turbulence was POTUS driven), so the losses I took were not very large. Since I covered the Puts, I have been in cash. My son and his wife are currently visiting from China. Their perspective on the matter, which I have chosen not to mention, is interesting. However, given the fact that I am currently playing host and that next week I visit Canada for my brother's birthday and other matters till late August, while I was tempted to short the market Friday, I did not. If you are distracted and can't properly monitor your positions you should stand aside, particularly when your conviction is limited.

One final comment. @zulu1128 stated that the market is up over 18% in the last two years. What he failed to mention was that this entire gain (more or less) was made in the first six months of that two year period. Since the market made its first significant top at the end of January 2018, it has essentially gone nowhere. Now from a bullish perspective many of the averages did hit all time highs in the August to early October 2018 period and again in June 2019. However, so far each time this has happened, weakness has followed. And, this is why we have gone nowhere in the past 18 months. It remains to see whether the current weakness will last or not. Unfortunately, this will probably rest in the hands of DJT. And, if nothing else (there is much else actually, but I shall refrain), he is a most erratic President in recent history. So who knows! What I do know is that if he plays stubborn and this drags out leading to a bear market and perhaps a recession, he will probably not win a second term. So there is that to consider ... stay tuned.   

As always a very good post.  

[noonereal]

7 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

What he failed to mention was that this entire gain (more or less) was made in the first six months of that two year period. Since the market made its first significant top at the end of January 2018

my numbers were accurate. He changed the dates to ignore the realities. 

[zulu1128]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I said I would comment on the market if and only if I sensed that there was clear and compelling evidence that we were making a major shift in direction. I don't see the current weakness as a compelling shift in direction. However, as , @15yds4gibberish whom I respect mentioned me in his post, I have chosen to provide my 10 cents as to why I don't see a compelling shift in direction below.

If the current action were occurring on little news, I would view this a the beginning of a major change in direction. However, similar to May when the averages experienced their largest correction since bottoming the day after Christmas, the current weakness is directly traceable to POTUS'S administration rekindling the trade war with China in a very public way while negotiations were actually taking place. This, I believe, was driven by a misguided belief that the way to extract maximum concessions from China is with bluster. I believe this is a huge mistake and if POTUS continues along this line we will have a significant downturn in the averages once again into bear market territory. 

With that said, back in late May, POTUS backed off of his bluster (a cooling off period if you will), and the market had such a great June (the best in many years) that the headline indices all hit all time highs (secondary stocks and the NYSE did not). The question is: will POTUS change his stance once again? For if he does, the current weakness will most likely be quickly reversed now that the Fed is cutting rates. If Trump were a normal President, the odds hugely favor him meeting China halfway (somewhere where both sides can claim victory). But he is not a normal President, so I have no earthly idea what he will do. Back in early May I covered all my longs which I had initiated from late December through early February and went short via Puts. Needless to say that was a mistake, as I took the loss on the Puts in early July. I have been on the sidelines since. Fortunately, the Puts were a half a position (mainly due to the fact that the turbulence was POTUS driven), so the losses I took were not very large. Since I covered the Puts, I have been in cash. My son and his wife are currently visiting from China. Their perspective on the matter, which I have chosen not to mention, is interesting. However, given the fact that I am currently playing host and that next week I visit Canada for my brother's birthday and other matters till late August, while I was tempted to short the market Friday, I did not. If you are distracted and can't properly monitor your positions you should stand aside, particularly when your conviction is limited.

One final comment. @zulu1128 stated that the market is up over 18% in the last two years. What he failed to mention was that this entire gain (more or less) was made in the first six months of that two year period. Since the market made its first significant top at the end of January 2018, it has essentially gone nowhere. Now from a bullish perspective many of the averages did hit all time highs in the August to early October 2018 period and again in June 2019. However, so far each time this has happened, weakness has followed. And, this is why we have gone nowhere in the past 18 months. It remains to see whether the current weakness will last or not. Unfortunately, this will probably rest in the hands of DJT. And, if nothing else (there is much else actually, but I shall refrain), he is a most erratic President in recent history. So who knows! What I do know is that if he plays stubborn and this drags out leading to a bear market and perhaps a recession, he will probably not win a second term. So there is that to consider ... stay tuned.   

PS: I will add one other comment. As of today's close, a market indicator I follow very closely (an oscillator) registered a very oversold reading (top 90+%). So, at the very least a bounce is probably due. If we don't get one, that would be very bearish. But I would not recommend shorting the market in the morning. By the same token if you are already short, I probably would not book my profits here either. Even if things get resolved because one or the other party blinks, it will probably be at least a few more weeks before that happens. So, we probably have not made a bottom yet.

Still waiting on that crash you promised us, TBH. 

[zulu1128]

6 minutes ago, noonereal said:

my numbers were accurate. He changed the dates to ignore the realities. 

The reality is that the market is up 18% in the past two years. 

[Nolebull813]

Dow, stocks break records every day. Lowest unemployment for all races and both genders. 

“NOT TRUMPS DOING!! HE DIDNT MAKE AN IMPACT!! NO CREDIT DESERVED!!!!”

 

Dow plunges from uncertainty for a day or even a week 

“ALL TRUMPS FAULT. ORANGE MAN BAD!!!!! REEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!

[NotBigdaddybloom]

I’ll make it simple...when companies start pulling their preferred stock, then brace yourself. Most of you don’t have enough in this market to read 8 paragraphs of “hey look how much I think I know” from someone you don’t.

[DarterBlue]

18 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

Still waiting on that crash you promised us, TBH. 

I made 105% on the down move from October through two days before Christmas. What did you do?

I also did not predict a crash. I predicted a steep and long bear market. It did not occur because the Fed capitulated to the wishes of the administration. That is not supposed to happen. But in this "Brave New World" anything goes, I guess.  

Given that the market's underpinnings are based on easy money, the steep decline will eventually come; it's a matter of when not if. But in the meantime, I will trade as I always have, letting the market itself guide my decisions and not what I think should happen ... nighty night

[Blueliner]

1 hour ago, concha said:

...

These clowns have been dreaming of this day. But one thing Trump proves over and over...he wins. I am not worried in the least bit. He will win this trade war with China, and the clown show left will have egg on their faces yet again. They'll have to make up some other shit to replace this "hoax". It's what they do.