California CIF State Bowl Games

[Cal 14]

NorCal team (Cal-Hi ranking) (Calpreps rating) vs SoCal team (Cal-Hi ranking) (Calpreps rating)

Calpreps prediction

 

Friday:

D-2AA

Concord Clayton Valley Charter (49) (42.6) vs. San Bernadino Aquinas (42) (47.1)

Calpreps:  Clayton Valley Charter 22, Aquinas 19

D-1AA

Fresno Central (7) (65.8) vs. Chatsworth Sierra Canyon (9) (64.3)

Calpreps:  Central 28, Sierra Canyon 24

 

Saturday:

D-2A

Oakland McClymonds (47) (50.4) vs. Oxnard Pacifica (51) (51.5)

Calpreps:  Pacifica 34, McClymonds 31

D-1A

San Mateo Serra (10) (57.4) vs. Newport Beach Corona del Mar (8) (71)

Calpreps:  Corona del Mar 31, Serra 21

Open

Concord De La Salle (3) (70.2) vs. Cerritos St. John Bosco (1) (95.4)

Calpreps:  St. John Bosco 42, De La Salle 24

 

[Cal 14]

D-2AA:  Clayton Valley Charter vs. Aquinas

CVC really shouldn’t be here, as Elk Grove had them dead-to-rights in the NorCal regional.  Yet, they somehow pulled up a crazy comeback to advance.  Additionally, they benefited tremendously from the NCS allowing them to hide in D-II within the section.  This is a team that had made it into the NCS Open Division (the top four teams in the section) two years in a row.  Now, suddenly they’re a D-II team again?  Granted, they got their butts kicked in the East Bay Athletic League, but they’re still a D-I team, in my opinion.

Aquinas plays in a league that harkens back to when they were still a small SS D-11 (or whatever) team.  Yet, they still demonstrated that they could beat some quality opponents in the playoffs, such as Oxnard and Santa Fe Springs St. Paul.  Their results seemed somewhat inconsistent.  They’d blow out a team like Ontario Christian, then play a low-scoring game against Linfield Christian.  They’ve also yet to score 30 points in the playoffs.

I think that this game will be very tight in the early going and relatively low-scoring overall, but that the Ugly Eagles will wear down the Falcons in the end.

My prediction:  Clayton Valley Charter 24, Aquinas 20

 

D-1AA:  Central vs. Sierra Canyon

Central finally got over the hump of the SJS D-I champ in a closer-than-expected NorCal regional.  The offense is clearly explosive, having dropped 38 on Oak Ridge even without their starting running back.  Their defense, however, is also clearly suspect.

Sierra Canyon probably should have been placed in D-1A, but they certainly took care of business against La Mesa Helix in the SoCal regional.  I believe that the main reason that most thought they should have dropped a division was due to an early season loss to Westlake Oaks Christian.  Ironically, it’s that very loss that likely kept them out of SS D-I and an inevitable loss to one of the SS big 3.

This game will probably be a huge contrast to the first contest, as I believe this one will be a shootout.  Ultimately, I see the Trailblazers being able to execute against the vulnerable Grizzly defense to pull away late.

My prediction:  Sierra Canyon 51, Central 38

 

D-2A:  McClymonds vs. Pacifica

I still believe that McClymonds could have been placed as high as D-1A and would have competed just fine.  They completely shocked Manteca early in the game with their speed.  I believe they scored something like 3 TDs in their first 5 plays against the Buffaloes.  This program has won three state titles in lower divisions.

It was very odd that the LA City Section Open Division champ (who was really the #2 team in the section, since Narbonne was prohibited from competing) was placed opposite Pacifica in this division.  Last year, McClymonds played the #2 LA City team in the D-4AA finals and clobbered them.  It was just about a foregone conclusion that Pacifica would do the same in their SoCal regional and they did not disappoint.  They didn’t play an especially strong regular season schedule and lost to the only team that could be considered strong, rival Oxnard.  Still, beating Whittier La Serna was a good win in the SS D-VI title game.

I believe that the Tritons are definitely a worthy competitor in this division, but that the Warriors will continue to show that this divisional placement was too low, scoring a 17-point win.

My prediction:  McClymonds 41, Pacifica 24

 

D-1A:  Serra vs. Corona del Mar

You will see a tremendous amount of misdirection from the Serra offense, taking advantage of good athleticism in their skill positions.  They had two long scoring plays against San Joaquin Memorial in the NorCal regional game, one on a screen pass and the other on a QB zone read.  The starting QB went down to injury late in the season, but the defense has stepped up since, shutting out state-ranked Valley Christian twice en route to the CCS D-I title.  The new QB is only a sophomore, but he showed his explosiveness in that long TD run.  Serra easily could have been placed in D-1AA over Oak Ridge.

Corona del Mar could also have very easily been placed in D-1AA, over Sierra Canyon in their case.  That said, they had a very surprisingly difficult game against Oceanside.  To me, it sort of seemed that they took the Pirates for granted a little.  One of their star WRs went down to injury early, which didn’t help matters, but is said to be good-to-go for the state championship.  Ethan Garbers has been remarkable this year at the QB position, but he did struggle with a number of fumbles in the SoCal regional.  Look for him to bounce back.  The CdM offense has put on a show over the course of the season, but I think their defense is very underrated.

I think the result of this game could depend on the scoring.  If it is a low-scoring game, I think the Padres have an advantage.  If it is high-scoring, I see the Sea Kings taking it.  I’m guessing it will end up somewhere in the middle, but higher than Serra would like.

My prediction:  Corona del Mar 31, Serra 21

 

Open:  De La Salle vs. St. John Bosco

Perhaps someone can help me pinpoint the last time that De La Salle did not have a 1000-yard rusher.  This year, in anticipation of facing one of the big 2 in the SS, DLS worked on their passing game a lot more this year, playing out of the spread more often than in recent years.  Hale has developed some, but has he turned into the great passer they had hoped?  They rambled through the NCS as they have for several years, so it’s hard to gauge this team against those from years past.  They played a really tough game against St. Thomas Aquinas to open the year and perhaps they may not have been able to do that in their recent history.  It’s been said that Bob Ladouceur, himself, has been more involved in the planning for this game.  We’ll see if that makes a difference in the result.

St. John Bosco shocked the world two weeks ago by upsetting the then #1 team in the country, Mater Dei.  It looked like they were doomed early, but roared back for the win, vindicating the title loss to the Monarchs from last year.  Talent is all over the place on this team, but focus may have been a slight issue at time in struggles for stretches.  Still, when this team is clicking, they’re a buzzsaw.  I’d be curious to know just how many scores from 40+ yards out they’ve had this season.  I’m guessing it’s over 20.

While the Spartans may very well be improved this year, the Braves continue to demonstrate why they’re among the best we’ve ever seen at the high school level.

My prediction:  St. John Bosco 38, De La Salle 21

 

[THEOC89]

6 minutes ago, frankyjames said:

Remember when Folsom hung 80 on Central?

Why don't you keep this Crap to the Folsom Threads and not ruin a nice analysis of the actual games.... Have some respect for the posters that are trying to have a conversation and not ruin every thread with your Folsom garbage...

Nobody cares about Folsom, we all just make fun of them... Start you own thread for this BS and stay off the others where the teams are actually still relevant and still playing...

[On2whls]

1 hour ago, Cal 14 said:

D-1A:  Serra vs. Corona del Mar

You will see a tremendous amount of misdirection from the Serra offense, taking advantage of good athleticism in their skill positions.  They had two long scoring plays against San Joaquin Memorial in the NorCal regional game, one on a screen pass and the other on a QB zone read.  The starting QB went down to injury late in the season, but the defense has stepped up since, shutting out state-ranked Valley Christian twice en route to the CCS D-I title.  The new QB is only a sophomore, but he showed his explosiveness in that long TD run.  Serra easily could have been placed in D-1AA over Oak Ridge.

Corona del Mar could also have very easily been placed in D-1AA, over Sierra Canyon in their case.  That said, they had a very surprisingly difficult game against Oceanside.  To me, it sort of seemed that they took the Pirates for granted a little.  One of their star WRs went down to injury early, which didn’t help matters, but is said to be good-to-go for the state championship.  Ethan Garbers has been remarkable this year at the QB position, but he did struggle with a number of fumbles in the SoCal regional.  Look for him to bounce back.  The CdM offense has put on a show over the course of the season, but I think their defense is very underrated.

I think the result of this game could depend on the scoring.  If it is a low-scoring game, I think the Padres have an advantage.  If it is high-scoring, I see the Sea Kings taking it.  I’m guessing it will end up somewhere in the middle, but higher than Serra would like.

My prediction:  Corona del Mar 31, Serra 21

 

The last I heard, Humphries is a no go.  CDM will have trouble scoring as much as usual if that is the case.

[THEOC89]

58 minutes ago, On2whls said:

The last I heard, Humphries is a no go.  CDM will have trouble scoring as much as usual if that is the case.

Didn’t he sit out the second half of the Oceanside game?.... I thought I read it was a hamstring?....

I feel like with or without him Serra will keep the game close with Ball control on offense.... They are a Very Physical Team, they just can’t get in a shoot out with CDM....

[dntn31]

2 hours ago, THEOC89 said:

Why don't you keep this Crap to the Folsom Threads and not ruin a nice analysis of the actual games

I just hid a bunch of posts. If any more posts go off-topic, don't respond just @ me and I'll hide those as well.

[Cal 14]

1 hour ago, On2whls said:

The last I heard, Humphries is a no go.  CDM will have trouble scoring as much as usual if that is the case.

OC Register said on Tuesday that he was ok.  If that's changed, it's an interesting development.

Oceanside played mostly man coverage, but Serra plays mostly zone. 

San Joaquin Memorial came into the NorCal regional averaging 41 points/game in the playoffs and the Padres held them to 16 (2 points were from an intentional safety by the punter for the total of 18).  When they played Cajon, the Cowboys had just ripped Rancho Verde for 70 points.  Serra held them to 14.

Neither of those teams are CdM, but if they don't have all of their weapons, this just got even more interesting.

[Cal 14]

2 hours ago, dntn31 said:

I just hid a bunch of posts. If any more posts go off-topic, don't respond just @ me and I'll hide those as well.

Everyone just needs to stop engaging him.  I have all 9 (yes, there really are that many) personalities on ignore.

[Cal 14]

Seeing the Aquinas team in person now, I don’t see how they’ll stand up to Clayton Valley for 48 minutes.  Only ~30 players.

[Cal 14]

Aquinas can’t move the ball.  Only 1 first down not by penalty.  CVC will wear them down in the second half.  They already started to at the end of the 2nd qtr.

[old_e]

They were down to SP 10 - 0 at halftime. 

[Cal 14]

19 minutes ago, old_e said:

They were down to SP 10 - 0 at halftime. 

2 first downs in 3 qtrs.  Their offense is getting dominated.

[Bestcoast]

1 minute ago, Cal 14 said:

2 first downs in 3 qtrs.  Their offense is getting dominated.

Aquinas has an enrollment of 535 students compared to cvc’s 2000. That might explain the depth deferential.

[Cal 14]

3 minutes ago, Bestcoast said:

Aquinas has an enrollment of 535 students compared to cvc’s 2000. That might explain the depth deferential.

I said before that the NCS gamed the system.  CVC should have been in D-I in section, not D-II.

Aquinas is clearly a very-well coached team.  But, you’re right.  It’s like a middle weight boxer going up against a cruiser weight.

[Cal 14]

7 minutes ago, Bestcoast said:

Aquinas has an enrollment of 535 students compared to cvc’s 2000. That might explain the depth deferential.

... but, Santa Rosa Cardinal Newman is about the same size as Aquinas and they’d be beating them by more at this point, IMO.
 

But, the NCS hid CN in D-IV, so they were placed in D-3AA.  They should have played McClymonds in D-2A.

[old_e]

11 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

... but, Santa Rosa Cardinal Newman is about the same size as Aquinas and they’d be beating them by more at this point, IMO.
 

But, the NCS hid CN in D-IV, so they were placed in D-3AA.  They should have played McClymonds in D-2A.

Wouldn't you say Clayton Valley and Cardinal Newman are about even?

[Bestcoast]

18 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

... but, Santa Rosa Cardinal Newman is about the same size as Aquinas and they’d be beating them by more at this point, IMO.
 

But, the NCS hid CN in D-IV, so they were placed in D-3AA.  They should have played McClymonds in D-2A.

[Cal 14]

3 minutes ago, old_e said:

Wouldn't you say Clayton Valley and Cardinal Newman are about even?

No, I think CN is a little better.  Maybe not by a lot, but better.  More diverse on offense.  CVC D better, but CN offense better.

[Cal 14]

2 minutes ago, Bestcoast said:

Cardinal Newman is a private school. Aquinas is public. Apples and oranges.

No, Aquinas is private... as in, St. Thomas Aquinas.

[Bestcoast]

Just now, Cal 14 said:

No, Aquinas is private... as in, St. Thomas Aquinas.

Ok I just never heard of Aquinas before and I live in SoCal. I’ve heard of Cardinal Newman for many years

[old_e]

3 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

No, I think CN is a little better.  Maybe not by a lot, but better.  More diverse on offense.  CVC D better, but CN offense better.

I'm just saying because they do have a common opponent.  Liberty needed overtime to beat CVC by 1. While they beat Cardinal Newman by 4.

[steeler01]

1 minute ago, Bestcoast said:

Ok I just never heard of Aquinas before and I live in SoCal. I’ve heard of Cardinal Newman for many years

It's in probably the worst part of San Bernardino

[NorCalRuss]

Score?

[old_e]

10-7 CVC final.

[Bestcoast]

7 minutes ago, old_e said:

10-7 CVC final.

Props to Aquinas for a good fight