Using outcomes from previous seasons to rank teams this season

[badrouter]

We've heard some people disregarding games played in the same season in projecting what might happen in hypothetical or real rematches. They've said that teams evolve and improve differently, with select programs being granted "hyper improvement" status, while those not annointed are said to be incapable of equivalent levels of improvement. For example, it was understood Mater Dei could win a rematch with SJB, and they did. Yet, we can be sure these folks will not grant that STA could win a rematch with SJB. But, enough about that annoying inconsistency. Should the 2023 rankings be impacted-or even dictated- by games played in the 2022 season? 

It seems clear rankers will use the outcome of the 2022 game between Chaminade and Bishop Gorman to rank the 2023 editions of each team. That is, quite literally, the *only* way one can justify ranking Bishop Gorman over Chaminade. BG's best win is no better than Chaminade's best win. But, Chaminade has a forty (40) point win over the best team in New Jersey. Chaminade also has a two-TD win over American Heritage and a more decisive win over St. Frances than Mater Dei had (and equivalent to SJB). The resume clearly favors Chaminade. But, in a previous season, BG had a month off before hosting a Chaminade team that played the previous week before the 2500 mile trip. BG won that game big. So, now, in a different season with different teams, we are supposed to hold that result up as paramount in ranking this season's teams. Bizarre.

(Miami Norland also has every bit the claim of BG. Beating Miami Central twice, neither of which was a true home game like BG had, is more impressive than beating them once.)

[RedZone]

Ok, what in the world are you talking about??

That is some very very strange stuff.

[Ga96]

Its just laziness but im pretty sure on the maxpreps page on their rankings explanation they use previous years to factor into rankings. Its total BS but they get away with it because its basically impossible to do national rankings. That's how you get top 25 and #1 ranked team in ohio barely beating a valdosta team that didn't even win the region and got bounced in the second round by juju who got blown out in the following round.

[badrouter]

11 hours ago, RedZone said:

Ok, what in the world are you talking about??

That is some very very strange stuff.

I'm talking about the fact that Bishop Gorman is ranked ahead of Chaminade, in 2023, solely because of the outcome of a game played in a different season with different teams. I'm talking about the fact that everyone recognized Mater Dei could win a rematch with SJB, everyone acknowledges SJB could win a rematch vs. Kahuku, while no one acknowledges STA could win a rematch with SJB.

Yes, I agree, that is some very strange stuff.

[Cossacks]

42 minutes ago, badrouter said:

I'm talking about the fact that Bishop Gorman is ranked ahead of Chaminade, in 2023, solely because of the outcome of a game played in a different season with different teams. I'm talking about the fact that everyone recognized Mater Dei could win a rematch with SJB, everyone acknowledges SJB could win a rematch vs. Kahuku, while no one acknowledges STA could win a rematch with SJB.

Yes, I agree, that is some very strange stuff.

I’ve never heard everyone say STA couldn't beat SJB in a rematch? Why not? Sure they could.

But not sure what that has to do with The Bishop being ranked ahead of Chaminade? So would you rather see SJB play Kuhuku or STA again. Or do you want SJB to play Chaminde or the Bishop? Lotta mis match jumble to decipher here.

[badrouter]

1 hour ago, Cossacks said:

I’ve never heard everyone say STA couldn't beat SJB in a rematch? Why not? Sure they could.

But not sure what that has to do with The Bishop being ranked ahead of Chaminade? So would you rather see SJB play Kuhuku or STA again. Or do you want SJB to play Chaminde or the Bishop? Lotta mis match jumble to decipher here.

They are mostly two separate issues, yes. They just highlight hypocrisy and inconsistency. The idea that Bishop Gorman has to be ahead of Chaminade because of a game played in another season is absurd, given the way many will grant teams a higher ranking than those they've lost to the same season. SJB has the same record as the Kahuku team that beat them, and I don't think there's a single rankings set that has Kahuku ahead of SJB: the outcome of a game in THIS season is mostly disregarded as people assume SJB would win a rematch. But, the outcome of a game in a PREVIOUS season is absolutely determinative for BG and Chaminade. Certain teams always get the benefit of the doubt no matter what.

[RedZone]

9 hours ago, badrouter said:

I'm talking about the fact that Bishop Gorman is ranked ahead of Chaminade, in 2023, solely because of the outcome of a game played in a different season with different teams. I'm talking about the fact that everyone recognized Mater Dei could win a rematch with SJB, everyone acknowledges SJB could win a rematch vs. Kahuku, while no one acknowledges STA could win a rematch with SJB.

Yes, I agree, that is some very strange stuff.

Ok, man.

You roll on if you have to!

[THEOC89]

11 hours ago, badrouter said:

They are mostly two separate issues, yes. They just highlight hypocrisy and inconsistency. The idea that Bishop Gorman has to be ahead of Chaminade because of a game played in another season is absurd, given the way many will grant teams a higher ranking than those they've lost to the same season. SJB has the same record as the Kahuku team that beat them, and I don't think there's a single rankings set that has Kahuku ahead of SJB: the outcome of a game in THIS season is mostly disregarded as people assume SJB would win a rematch. But, the outcome of a game in a PREVIOUS season is absolutely determinative for BG and Chaminade. Certain teams always get the benefit of the doubt no matter what.

This is the Never Ending issue with Polls…. They are all Subjective Opinions or Computer Algorithms…. 

We don’t have a game played between CM and BG this year, so people’s Opinions are that BG is #1 and the tie Breaker may just be that BG beat CM last year…. It doesn’t make anyone’s Subjective opinion right or wrong, it just is what it is….

The Computers on the other hand seem to like MD…. Could MD beat any team in the country this year?…. Probably…. It doesn’t make them right or wrong, it’s just Data spit out by a computer….

Without a playoff all you have is Opinions or Data, that’s why a “National Championship” is Mythical….

[Atticus Finch]

13 hours ago, Cossacks said:

I’ve never heard everyone say STA couldn't beat SJB in a rematch? Why not? Sure they could.

I think the point is that you've never heard anybody say that they *could* either. When it's always assumed for the two California schools.

This is yet another element of the immovable force that is the national narrative: when you get to play the other assumed best team in the county twice every year and no magnitude of a loss matters in the least bit.

It's beginning to rival the De La Salle myth in it's invincibility.

[Atticus Finch]

39 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

The Computers on the other hand seem to like MD…. Could MD beat any team in the country this year?…. Probably…. It doesn’t make them right or wrong, it’s just Data spit out by a computer….

Seem?

The weight being carried by that word is awfully heavy. Globe-level, even.

[golfaddict1]

2012-2013 Norcross (ed) comes to mind regarding back to back seasons.

2012, had a handful of teams resume looking MNC worthy imo and Norcross was one of them.  They had a tough GA slate, but no marquee OOS game.  

2013, they faced OOS opponent BTW and won state again. 

 

[golfaddict1]

CalPreps is now in the playoff boost period.  Some states finished their season.  

I assume same deal w Massey.  

HSFA, who knows.  It’s Massey based with Ken Fisher’s secret sauce… which could mean looking at other polls and saying wow, let me move this team up.  😁 

[RedZone]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:10 PM, badrouter said:

Chaminade

Is NOT the #1 team in the nation which is the point of all this smoke and madness, I guess....

Forget about it.

 

[golfaddict1]

@Testadura made an interesting comment imo re: Bergen Catholic in another thread (BC win).

I watched the final 2 1/2 quarters of the state final last night and not sure where BC will finish this season nationally, but as good a game as it was and entertaining… I don’t think these teams would fare well vs national elites this season.  Well coached, but this wasn’t BC-DBP past quality imo.  

No hyper improvement or end of season boost can change this.  They are who they are.  NJ powers.  

I’m not even sure this BC recent streak of individual season state titles is better than some of the non state winning BC teams (DBP power period) in the past with a better passing attack.  @Testadura thoughts?  
 

 

[golfaddict1]

13 hours ago, badrouter said:

They are mostly two separate issues, yes. They just highlight hypocrisy and inconsistency. The idea that Bishop Gorman has to be ahead of Chaminade because of a game played in another season is absurd, given the way many will grant teams a higher ranking than those they've lost to the same season. SJB has the same record as the Kahuku team that beat them, and I don't think there's a single rankings set that has Kahuku ahead of SJB: the outcome of a game in THIS season is mostly disregarded as people assume SJB would win a rematch. But, the outcome of a game in a PREVIOUS season is absolutely determinative for BG and Chaminade. Certain teams always get the benefit of the doubt no matter what.

Is your pov that it’s the Algos based or eye test polls or both that focus on previous year data too much?  

[Cossacks]

1 hour ago, Atticus Finch said:

I think the point is that you've never heard anybody say that they *could* either. 

Correct. In fact I’ve never heard anybody say either. People have moved on to real games taking place on the field not imaginary games that will not be played.

[RedZone]

48 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

@Testadura made an interesting comment imo re: Bergen Catholic in another thread (BC win).

I watched the final 2 1/2 quarters of the state final last night and not sure where BC will finish this season nationally, but as good a game as it was and entertaining… I don’t think these teams would fare well vs national elites this season.  Well coached, but this wasn’t BC-DBP past quality imo.  

No hyper improvement or end of season boost can change this.  They are who they are.  NJ powers.  

I’m not even sure this BC recent streak of individual season state titles is better than some of the non state winning BC teams (DBP power period) in the past with a better passing attack.  @Testadura thoughts?  
 

 

Bergen's best wins are Delbarton and Red Back Catholic...

No one should brag about beating this team.

Another team that is consistently overhyped and were this year too.

 

 

[golfaddict1]

14 minutes ago, RedZone said:

Bergen's best wins are Delbarton and Red Back Catholic...

No one should brag about beating this team.

Another team that is consistently overhyped and were this year too.

 

 

Imagine if they didn’t play (Chaminade)?  #badabing  

I’m glad they did.  It helps connect the dots w state power quality.  
Delby also played an OOS opponent.  

[Atticus Finch]

49 minutes ago, Cossacks said:

Correct. In fact I’ve never heard anybody say either. People have moved on to real games taking place on the field not imaginary games that will not be played.

The first point is not a refutation of what I said. In fact, it's exactly the same as what I said.

The second part is pure fiction.

The California two win every single hypothetical matchup and everybody better agree with it too. That's exactly the narrative we're talking about.

[Cossacks]

3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

The first point is not a refutation of what I said. In fact, it's exactly the same as what I said.

The second part is pure fiction.

The California two win every single hypothetical matchup and everybody better agree with it too. That's exactly the narrative we're talking about.

They better agree with it? 

[Atticus Finch]

2 minutes ago, Cossacks said:

They better agree with it? 

Not by force of death but you get the picture.

You're considered a loon around here if you question the narrative at all. Just search the history of this board.

[954gator]

3 hours ago, Cossacks said:

They better agree with it? 

If not ya get a knuckle sammich. 

[badrouter]

10 hours ago, THEOC89 said:

This is the Never Ending issue with Polls…. They are all Subjective Opinions or Computer Algorithms…. 

We don’t have a game played between CM and BG this year, so people’s Opinions are that BG is #1 and the tie Breaker may just be that BG beat CM last year…. It doesn’t make anyone’s Subjective opinion right or wrong, it just is what it is….

The Computers on the other hand seem to like MD…. Could MD beat any team in the country this year?…. Probably…. It doesn’t make them right or wrong, it’s just Data spit out by a computer….

Without a playoff all you have is Opinions or Data, that’s why a “National Championship” is Mythical….

This is why the only honest thing that can be said is "We don't have any sure way to distinguish the top X number of teams from each other". You can issue that statement and still do rankings. As long as it is truly understood and recognized that the rankings are nothing  more than a silly, subjective game, then there's nothing to get worked up over. While some people hint at that at times, one gets the clear impression that those who consume these rankings lists really believe them to be factual accounts of how good teams are in relation to each other.

[badrouter]

9 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

Is your pov that it’s the Algos based or eye test polls or both that focus on previous year data too much?  

Both, largely because the algos are developed by humans. But, I wouldn't even use the phrase "too much" here. Previous seasons should have ZERO bearing on the current season's rankings after about one week of games. This should be obvious. Using other seasons to rank teams this season is a way of admitting that the data available for this season is insufficient to distinguish the teams. 

[badrouter]

9 hours ago, Cossacks said:

Correct. In fact I’ve never heard anybody say either. People have moved on to real games taking place on the field not imaginary games that will not be played.

That's actually not true. Anyone involved with ranking teams, or with justifying others' ranking of teams, is considering imaginary games that will not be played. People putting Bishop Gorman ahead of Chaminade in 2023 are imagining a game that has not and will not happen, and projecting the imaginary winner. Same for any two other teams.