CalPreps 1st National Preseason Top 100

[Columbiafan]

I seriously want to see if anyone really has a argument for 2018 St Thomas Aquinas deserving top 10 or are people just thinking they should be ranked based on past prestige? 

 

This isn't a ranking of best programs since 2000

 

It's a ranking of best teams IN 2018

[Adam Kurkjian]

What are you hearing on Miami Central?

[Columbiafan]

1 minute ago, Adam Kurkjian said:

What are you hearing on Miami Central?

Right now I've heard they are heavily gutted on the roster, i had them ranked at 5 in my first rankings but then after talking to some south Florida guys i dropped them 

 

Things can change but at the moment they probably will be taking the hardest fall in 6a district 16 of the top 4 teams

[golfaddict1]

53 minutes ago, Adam Kurkjian said:

What are you hearing on Miami Central?

Stud 2021 RB Amari Daniels is now at Miami Jackson.  His father is the new HC. They lost another RB to Chaminade Madonna I believe, but they seem to always have RB’s at that program.

 Atwell graduating from MNW at QB (Louisville bound) is a big loss.  One look at the Chandler game Adam and you’ll see what I mean.   The Dade guys are quiet so far.  I’d have Carol City preseason fav as mentioned before.  After that MNW has had a good free agency so far, but coin flip with MC at this point.   When spring ball info comes out in May perhaps some more roster info can be discussed.  

[Las Vegas_JC]

4 hours ago, Columbiafan said:

You make it sound like Miami Northwestern and Miami Norland were garbage

 

They were solid teams last year 

And Miami Central was playing good football in early 2017. When MC played IMG the Rockets were only losing by the score of 16-15 with 1:46 left in the 4th qtr. The rockets did lose by 9 points but that was the closest game for IMG all year. And this game happened one week after IMG beat Corona Centennial 40-20. 

[Las Vegas_JC]

11 hours ago, Pops said:

The D1 players are irrelevant — ratings reset a few weeks into season — I wish they wouldn’t put the rating out until October — it is what it is

Site an example of the ratings resetting a few weeks into the season. Use Mater Dei as your example. 

Quote

as to BG - Gorman, that’s not an outlandish result to say that the team that beat SJC would beat the team that lost to an MC team that lost MNW twice, who lost to norland

2017 Gorman beats 2017 Dls 10 out of 10 times. It was not really a contest and if called correctly by the referees the score should have been 31-0. Gorman was even gracious enough to set this contest as the 4th game into the season both last year and in 2018.

 

[Pops]

7 hours ago, Columbiafan said:

You make it sound like Miami Northwestern and Miami Norland were garbage

 

They were solid teams last year 

MNW absolutely — no shame in those losses, although there were 2 of them to same team that lost to norland 

Norland shouldn’t be contending with teams that  otherwise have too 25 resumes 

[Pops]

1 hour ago, Las Vegas_JC said:

2017 Gorman beats 2017 Dls 10 out of 10 times. 

Oh

i didnt realize that in explaining that DLS had parts of their resume that were better than parts of Gorman 

make an arguement that’s not centered exclusively on your conviction that DLS loses 10 in a row to BG

 

[Columbiafan]

6 minutes ago, Pops said:

MNW absolutely — no shame in those losses, although there were 2 of them to same team that lost to norland 

Norland shouldn’t be contending with teams that  otherwise have too 25 resumes 

MNW may have lost to Norland but Norland would probably have won most regions in FL 

 

Mainland normally top 25 in FL and Norland was right there with them in the playoffs 

[Omaha Vol]

44 minutes ago, Pops said:

make an arguement that’s not centered exclusively on your conviction that DLS loses 10 in a row to BG

 

No way DLS loses 10 in a row to anybody. 

[Las Vegas_JC]

2 hours ago, Omaha Vol said:

No way DLS loses 10 in a row to anybody. 

Did you watch the game? Gorman's DL stifled the veer all night. Dls averaged 3.1 YPC. And TE Brevin Jordan had a field day vs the Dls secondary ( 6 catches, 131 yards, 21.8 avg.). 

[954gator]

9 hours ago, Columbiafan said:

I seriously want to see if anyone really has a argument for 2018 St Thomas Aquinas deserving top 10 or are people just thinking they should be ranked based on past prestige? 

 

This isn't a ranking of best programs since 2000

 

It's a ranking of best teams IN 2018

Columbia is so sour against STA lol.   They don't win states one year and they suck!    

[Columbiafan]

40 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Columbia is so sour against STA lol.   They don't win states one year and they suck!    

No i just refuse to rank them based on reputation 

 

Until i see something trending upwards I'm not gonna hand them top 10

 

Fact is they weren't top 10 at end of 2017 and I haven't seen anything convincing me to make them top 10 in 2018

 

Every team listed top 10 are teams I've heard good things about, nothing I've heard on sta has been a upward trend 

[Pops]

2 hours ago, Las Vegas_JC said:

Did you watch the game? Gorman's DL stifled the veer all night. Dls averaged 3.1 YPC. And TE Brevin Jordan had a field day vs the Dls secondary ( 6 catches, 131 yards, 21.8 avg.). 

Neat

[golfaddict1]

1 hour ago, Columbiafan said:

Every team listed top 10 are teams I've heard good things about, nothing I've heard on sta has been a upward trend 

Gibbons and Carol City... that’s it.  At worst STA starts 3rd in FL.  If IMG added, 4th at worst.  That’s if any source has a sense if credibility.  

The Columbia “I’ve heard from a friend”. March FL preseason top 10.   There’s a solid foundation.  

[Pops]

17 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

    I feel OOS games should have the same stout boost as playoff games in-state.  You want to be the man, beat the man.   August, October... doesn't matter.   "You play to win the game".   Herm Edwards    

“OOS” doesn’t mean anything 

most OOS games are irrelevant and some stare lines are much closer than others 

“championships”, though, have meaning to every team at every level and the journey from here to there is much more what hsfb is about to me than D1 talent calculations 

[Columbiafan]

7 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

Gibbons and Carol City... that’s it.  At worst STA starts 3rd in FL.  If IMG added, 4th at worst.  That’s if any source has a sense if credibility.  

The Columbia “I’ve heard from a friend”. March FL preseason top 10.   There’s a solid foundation.  

AHP and MNW i would put money on beating sta right now

 

I've heard this sta team resembles last year and that team was barley top 5 in their county

[Columbiafan]

7 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

Gibbons and Carol City... that’s it.  At worst STA starts 3rd in FL.  If IMG added, 4th at worst.  That’s if any source has a sense if credibility.  

The Columbia “I’ve heard from a friend”. March FL preseason top 10.   There’s a solid foundation.  

And this is my rankings,  i complied information from sources but it's not someone else's rankings

 

We will see during the season if sta is really back or if it's more hot air like their biggest fan who couldn't last 5 minutes in a debate without cussing like a spoiled brat and once again disappeared thinking he still holds relevance 

[golfaddict1]

6 hours ago, Pops said:

“OOS” doesn’t mean anything 

most OOS games are irrelevant and some stare lines are much closer than others 

“championships”, though, have meaning to every team at every level and the journey from here to there is much more what hsfb is about to me than D1 talent calculations 

Considering a heavy emphasis of Freeman's state scaling is based off of OOS performance, I'd say it's a tad important.    My comparison was OOS to playoff games and I stand by that statement.   Sure Championship game is obviously the goal of every school except IMG, SFA, Bishop Sullivan etc.  and winning it is the ultimate goal and deserves some form of boost.  

This is a national forum board and OOS games I would think matter to most here (even a few Texans ), otherwise, what exactly is the point of posting here and wouldn't a local or state forum be more interesting?   A quality win will get its rewards... I have been outspoken about the playoff boost as it magnifies the state scaling more, not extreme but in a top 25 in nation rating or top 100 it does.  

Let's summarize what Calpreps does.   They have a built in state scale with some variation based on OOS games results.    The more states play OOS games, the better gauge Freeman or Massey or Fisher or whomever would have in a more data point driven algorithm, which would likely give a more realistic feel to the ratings overall and especially in terms of depth ratings.  

Centennial, AZ had one vocal supporter and few on the board even heard of this school last preseason.    SFA validated their season with a pummeling of Bingham as a top 5 in nation squad.    Chandler validated that they have one nasty offense to defend in pounding MNW.  Perry, AZ won't give much national clout but MNW will.  Is it fair?  Perhaps not, but OOS performance gets attention.  

D1 talent calculations are the only way for the algorithm to look somewhat normal through the season.   It's that human input that makes schools who haven't played 3 games of emphasis yet still have a rating that looks normal.   It's also a way for schools in non power states with a good veteran roster to start at a higher position and that matters when it takes time for the schools to spool up game data to be rated accordingly.    It's not rocket science Pop,  there's a very good way to find some diamond in the rough schools for 2018 season.   Start looking at school entries and see returnee #'s in some key positions and the ratings up or down on talent approx vs. last year in various states of interest and you'll begin to see a radar list for schools to watch for.  Freeman was clever in implementing this tool and his ratings are now more realistic from Aug - Dec.  

[Pops]

1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Considering a heavy emphasis of Freeman's state scaling is based off of OOS performance, I'd say it's a tad important.    My comparison was OOS to playoff games and I stand by that statement.   Sure Championship game is obviously the goal of every school except IMG, SFA, Bishop Sullivan etc.  and winning it is the ultimate goal and deserves some form of boost.  

This is a national forum board and OOS games I would think matter to most here (even a few Texans ), otherwise, what exactly is the point of posting here and wouldn't a local or state forum be more interesting?   A quality win will get its rewards... I have been outspoken about the playoff boost as it magnifies the state scaling more, not extreme but in a top 25 in nation rating or top 100 it does.  

Let's summarize what Calpreps does.   They have a built in state scale with some variation based on OOS games results.    The more states play OOS games, the better gauge Freeman or Massey or Fisher or whomever would have in a more data point driven algorithm, which would likely give a more realistic feel to the ratings overall and especially in terms of depth ratings.  

Centennial, AZ had one vocal supporter and few on the board even heard of this school last preseason.    SFA validated their season with a pummeling of Bingham as a top 5 in nation squad.    Chandler validated that they have one nasty offense to defend in pounding MNW.  Perry, AZ won't give much national clout but MNW will.  Is it fair?  Perhaps not, but OOS performance gets attention.  

D1 talent calculations are the only way for the algorithm to look somewhat normal through the season.   It's that human input that makes schools who haven't played 3 games of emphasis yet still have a rating that looks normal.   It's also a way for schools in non power states with a good veteran roster to start at a higher position and that matters when it takes time for the schools to spool up game data to be rated accordingly.    It's not rocket science Pop,  there's a very good way to find some diamond in the rough schools for 2018 season.   Start looking at school entries and see returnee #'s in some key positions and the ratings up or down on talent approx vs. last year in various states of interest and you'll begin to see a radar list for schools to watch for.  Freeman was clever in implementing this tool and his ratings are now more realistic from Aug - Dec.  

He’s been doing that for years — refining as he goes

my point was just that only 1% of “OOS” games played fit the characteristics you describe — most are irrelevant school border wars that entail far less distance than NorCal-socal or dfw-Houston — should these states not get the same boost in an algorithm because they come from states that can fit the entire northeast in their borders?

a good team is a good team and imho “OOS” has no place as an algorithm variable — should GA get a boost for their top teams beating ISB every year?

teams build to the end of season and what teams BECOME is actually more important than what they were when they started 

 

[golfaddict1]

2 hours ago, Pops said:

He’s been doing that for years — refining as he goes   I hope AR is next   Not sure what that deal is about, but you can see how easily a state rating can boost individual teams (2 in top 14) and the depth of state ratings are likely higher than PA's.  

my point was just that only 1% of “OOS” games played fit the characteristics you describe — most are irrelevant school border wars that entail far less distance than NorCal-socal or dfw-Houston — should these states not get the same boost in an algorithm because they come from states that can fit the entire northeast in their borders?

As it is a small number, the emphasis will be accordingly impactful.    See below for more explanation.  

a good team is a good team and imho “OOS” has no place as an algorithm variable — should GA get a boost for their top teams beating ISB every year?

Calpreps won't acknowledge punching bags in a team's rating.  They will never be boldfaced like this text in a team's rating trend profile (rating makeup).   Game's of emphasis will reflect in the rating itself, but I feel such OOS should be emphasized like a playoff game would be.    Does SJB vs. STA carry the same weight as a NY/CT showdown minutes away?  Not really, but in the NY/CT showdown example the overall rating for the season will be limited by the state scaled max of Freeman's choice, so in the end, OOS games can only help states from rising up the ladder as it can "break the chains" of the state cap.  

It's a tinkering work in progress for Freeman, so certainly we can discuss suggestions.   The boost I am discussing wouldn't likely do much in terms of boost for most teams anyway, only the teams like IMG or SJC or those with heavy OOS schedules could this be an issue.    Could set a cap on OOS games (using top 3 rated to boost for example only).  It's really a small number that someone was discussing last year in terms of playoff boost vs. regular season and here we are talking 3 games max. vs. an in-state only playoff boost.   If we are talking in-state ratings only my opinion changes.  For national ratings, which is what the majority of us discuss here...  OOS is extremely important as again, Freeman and Massey in writing scale states based on a tiny # of OOS games.  They both realize the flaw in this, but how else can you setup a national rating without a scaled rating system?  It's weak, but it's the only way.  

teams build to the end of season and what teams BECOME is actually more important than what they were when they started 

Sounds logical, but again how does an in-state only playoff run get rated vs. other in-state only run title winners?   I don't believe playoff games should be boosted simply because they are playoff games.   Boost vs. the opponent,  emphasize a nice playoff win sure.   Imo, emphasize a MNC of interest game in OOS or in-state in August more than an any playoff round mediocre foe.   Imo, you don't weaken/undermine an August game of non playoff bearing importance and use a playoff run in one state as a sign of strength.   Did DLS play Trinity in the playoffs or STA or DBP?  Did STA play DBP in the playoffs or BTW or Miramar of recent years?   Hardware in-state, great.  Rank that state.   If national rankings are of interest, OOS games and in-state games in Aug, Sept, Oct. and Nov. regular season matter, there's no way around it.  There's too few games in football and you have to accept all the results.  

What would be of interest to me is to somehow setup a system but only use the top 500 or so teams or cap it at top something per state and add more for the power states for example and somehow move these teams based on performance of inside this group of schools... and if a school beats a team on the list it can join and the team it beats becomes downgraded and use the game result of the added team.  HOW this can be done, no fucking idea lol.  But my thinking is trim the fat and just focus on games that matter.  Even if a team has no movement for the first month so be it.  can have a state ranking and performance rating    Who's game to create this lol.   

 

[ECHS05]

2 hours ago, Pops said:

He’s been doing that for years — refining as he goes

my point was just that only 1% of “OOS” games played fit the characteristics you describe — most are irrelevant school border wars that entail far less distance than NorCal-socal or dfw-Houston — should these states not get the same boost in an algorithm because they come from states that can fit the entire northeast in their borders?

a good team is a good team and imho “OOS” has no place as an algorithm variable — should GA get a boost for their top teams beating ISB every year?

teams build to the end of season and what teams BECOME is actually more important than what they were when they started 

 

Lets compare GAs OOS opponents vs NorCals.

You say that copying Nolebull, but have no clue yourself.

[Columbiafan]

9 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Lets compare GAs OOS opponents vs NorCals.

You say that copying Nolebull, but have no clue yourself.

Honestly is seems that north GA generally plays better oos than south GA, would you consider that a true statement? 

[Belly Bob]

On ‎3‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 6:09 PM, Omaha Vol said:

No way DLS loses 10 in a row to anybody. 

 

22 hours ago, Las Vegas_JC said:

Did you watch the game? Gorman's DL stifled the veer all night. Dls averaged 3.1 YPC. And TE Brevin Jordan had a field day vs the Dls secondary ( 6 catches, 131 yards, 21.8 avg.). 

I watched the game.

Robinson carried the ball 5 times for 47 yards before he suffered a concussion and was helped off the field.

1. 8 yards.

2. 4 yards.

3. 23 yards.

4. 7 yards.

5. 5 yards.

That's 9.4 yards per carry by my calculations.

DLS's best offensive player was injured in the very first drive of the game. And the effect on the offense was immediately visible. When Robinson left the field, DLS next four plays were a run for 0 yards, a false start, a sack for a 13-yard loss, and a punt.

So it shouldn't surprise anyone that Gorman stifled the veer after that.

But on the assumption that Robinson stays healthy, it's very unlikely that BG beats DLS 10 times in a row.

 

[Belly Bob]

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 12:52 PM, Cal 14 said:

[...]

1.  It's not intended for public consumption yet.

2.  It's wayyyyyy far from complete.

[...]

 

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 2:15 PM, Cal 14 said:

That's just it... they didn't put it out.  It's on a hidden link.

 

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 2:24 PM, Cal 14 said:

A.  It's not a poll.

B.  It wasn't meant for public consumption because it's nowhere near finished.

ECHS05 just wanted to bitch about something have get others to try to pile on to support his agenda.

 

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 2:55 PM, Cal 14 said:

Pretty much.  They probably don't have much more than 15% of the responses they'll eventually get from coaches at this point.

 

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 8:14 PM, Cal 14 said:

They didn't put out squat.

ECSH05 just seized on an opportunity to make fun of his nemesis.

It must be frustrating having to make the same point over and over again and for most of the other posters to just ignore it and to power forward with their stale agendas.

But I, myself, appreciate the effort.