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CalPreps Ratings vs. GAs OOS Game Performance - Weeks 0-7


ECHS05

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On 9/3/2019 at 7:46 PM, ECHS05 said:

Georgias Week 2 OOS Games

 

CP Projection: Archer GA 35, Spartanburg SC 8 ... (GA +27)

CP Ratings: Archer: 47.9 ; Spartanburg: 17.8 ... (GA +30.1)

Actual Score: Archer 49, Spartanburg 10 ... GA +39

Difference: GA outperforms by +8.9

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Beaufort SC 26, Effingham Co. GA 20 ... (GA -6)

CP Ratings: Effingham Co.: -9.2 ; Beaufort: 0 ... (GA -9.2)

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: North Augusta SC 24, Grovetown GA 7 ... (GA -17)

CP Ratings: Grovetown: -7.9 ; North Augusta: 5.1 ... (GA -13)

Actual Score: North Augusta 17, Grovetown 16 ... GA -1

Difference: GA outperforms by +12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 28, North Miami Beach FL 7 ... (GA -21)

CP Ratings: Bainbridge: 35.5 ; North Miami Beach: 14.9 ... (GA +20.6)

Actual Score: Bainbridge 37, North Miami Beach 0 ... GA +37

Difference: GA outperforms by +16.4

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bolles FL 38, New Hampstead GA 17 ... (GA -21)

CP Ratings: New Hampstead: -2.5 ; Bolles: 23.9 ... (GA -26.4)

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Rockledge FL 50, Columbia GA 0 ... (GA -50)

CP Ratings: Columbia: -10.6 ; Rockledge: 46.3 ... (GA -56.9)

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Marist GA 48, Canyon Springs NV 3 ... (GA +45)

CP Ratings: Marist: 38.5 ; Canyon Springs: 4 ... (GA +34.5)

Actual Score: Marist 45, Canyon Springs 8 ... GA +37

Difference: GA outperforms by +2.5

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Cedar Grove GA 27, Valor Christian CO 21 ... (GA +6)

CP Ratings: Cedar Grove: 44.4 ; Valor Christian: 34.7 ... (GA +9.7)

Actual Score: Cedar Grove 27, Valor Christian 17 ... GA +10

Difference: GA outperforms by +0.3

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Prestonwood Christian TX 24, Greater Atl. Christian GA 21 ... (GA -3)

CP Ratings: GAC: 12.6 ; Prestonwood Christian: 13.8 ... (GA -1.2)

Actual Score: GAC 34, Prestonwood Christian 27 ... GA +7

Difference: GA outperforms by +8.2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Laney GA 28, McCormick SC 12 ... (GA +16)

CP Ratings: Laney: -24.3 ; McCormick: -39.4 ... (GA +15.1)

Actual Score: Laney 42, McCormick 0 ... GA +42

Difference: GA outperforms by +26.9

GA has outperformed in all 7 Week 2 OOS games so far. 

Total for those 7 games = +75.2

GA outperformed by an average of +10.74 ppg.

 

Keep in mind, IF Georgia were scaled correctly, the odds of a GA team out/under-performing should be 50/50. And the PPG should average out close to 0. Thats not happening and 10.74 seems like a step back for CalPreps from last week but better than Week 0.

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2 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

22.1 is the cutoff rating at 1000

Currently... TX:  133  CA:  87    FL:  87    OH:  82   GA:  60  (was 57 late last night)

449/1000    44.9% of top 1000 

 

 

And to think... Georgia had 34 just 3 weeks ago.

 

OH only has 71 by the way.

Its...

Texas: 124

Florida: 85

California: 80

Ohio: 71

Georgia: 60

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Just now, The Guru said:

You think Marietta is an elite team.

You will think Georgia is great no matter what happens so you are clearly basing all of this on your confirmation bias.

No. Im telling you how CalPreps works without state scaling implemented. Georgia couldn't have gotten much higher than 35-40 if thats what they started with. 

 

I am also showing you that GA is STILL undervalued. Because they are outperforming in OOS games... Which is the only thing that can be used to measure how well states are scaled compared to each other without just using human opinion & bias.

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4 minutes ago, The Guru said:

You think Marietta is an elite team.

You will think Georgia is great no matter what happens so you are clearly basing all of this on your confirmation bias.

Youve also, never once, saw a sentence of mine that had Marietta described as elite this year.

You like finding old posts, find that one.

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2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

No. Im telling you how CalPreps works without state scaling implemented. Georgia couldn't have gotten much higher than 35-40 if thats what they started with.

But if calpreps is worthless then who cares what it's algorithm says?

We don't know how good these teams really are, yet, and so your claims that Georgia teams are undervalued is simply your opinion.

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32 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

And to think... Georgia had 34 just 3 weeks ago.

 

OH only has 71 by the way.

Its...

Texas: 124

Florida: 85

California: 80

Ohio: 71

Georgia: 60

... at the time I posted that's what it was.   Probably best to wait until late Sunday or Monday am to check to be safe as it looks like the Friday games are still being adjusted/scaled and we have today's games of course to add to the fun.  

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As of the time I checked a short while ago...   Cali leads in top 100, but is 3rd in top 250.   MD looking solid and HI has 3 in the top 100.   

 

Top 250  (39.0 rating or higher)

TX:  37

FL:  30 (excluding IMG)

CA: 29

OH: 21

GA:  18

MD:  11

 

Top 100  (50.6 rating or higher)

CA:  17

TX:  14

FL:  13 (excluding IMG)

OH: 11

GA:   7

MD:  6

HI:    3

71% of top 100 is from 7 states  (62% from power 5)

 

image.thumb.png.1e10ecfaec93350232741f5f8da6ffcc.png

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7 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

As of the time I checked a short while ago...   Cali leads in top 100, but is 3rd in top 250.   MD looking solid and HI has 3 in the top 100.   

 

Top 250  (39.0 rating or higher)

TX:  37

FL:  30 (excluding IMG)

CA: 29

OH: 21

GA:  18

MD:  11

 

Top 100  (50.6 rating or higher)

CA:  17

TX:  14

FL:  13 (excluding IMG)

OH: 11

GA:   7

MD:  6

HI:    3

71% of top 100 is from 7 states  (62% from power 5)

 

image.thumb.png.1e10ecfaec93350232741f5f8da6ffcc.png

Sorry ignore this post

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On 9/3/2019 at 7:46 PM, ECHS05 said:

Georgias Week 2 OOS Games

 

CP Projection: Archer GA 35, Spartanburg SC 8 ... (GA +27)

CP Ratings: Archer: 47.9 ; Spartanburg: 17.8 ... (GA +30.1)

Actual Score: Archer 49, Spartanburg 10 ... GA +39

Difference: GA outperforms by +8.9

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: North Augusta SC 24, Grovetown GA 7 ... (GA -17)

CP Ratings: Grovetown: -7.9 ; North Augusta: 5.1 ... (GA -13)

Actual Score: North Augusta 17, Grovetown 16 ... GA -1

Difference: GA outperforms by +12

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 28, North Miami Beach FL 7 ... (GA -21)

CP Ratings: Bainbridge: 35.5 ; North Miami Beach: 14.9 ... (GA +20.6)

Actual Score: Bainbridge 37, North Miami Beach 0 ... GA +37

Difference: GA outperforms by +16.4

- - - - - - - - - - -

CP Projection: Marist GA 48, Canyon Springs NV 3 ... (GA +45)

CP Ratings: Marist: 38.5 ; Canyon Springs: 4 ... (GA +34.5)

Actual Score: Marist 45, Canyon Springs 8 ... GA +37

Difference: GA outperforms by +2.5

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Cedar Grove GA 27, Valor Christian CO 21 ... (GA +6)

CP Ratings: Cedar Grove: 44.4 ; Valor Christian: 34.7 ... (GA +9.7)

Actual Score: Cedar Grove 27, Valor Christian 17 ... GA +10

Difference: GA outperforms by +0.3

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Prestonwood Christian TX 24, Greater Atl. Christian GA 21 ... (GA -3)

CP Ratings: GAC: 12.6 ; Prestonwood Christian: 13.8 ... (GA -1.2)

Actual Score: GAC 34, Prestonwood Christian 27 ... GA +7

Difference: GA outperforms by +8.2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Laney GA 28, McCormick SC 12 ... (GA +16)

CP Ratings: Laney: -24.3 ; McCormick: -39.4 ... (GA +15.1)

Actual Score: Laney 42, McCormick 0 ... GA +42

Difference: GA outperforms by +26.9

So these #s are final

GA outperformed in all 7 Week 2 OOS games. 

Total for those 7 games = +75.2

GA outperformed by an average of +10.74 ppg.

 

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1 minute ago, ECHS05 said:

So these #s are final

GA outperformed in all 7 Week 2 OOS games. 

Total for those 7 games = +75.2

GA outperformed by an average of +10.74 ppg.

 

Keep in mind, while the Georgia teams are outperforming, if I were doing these other states these games would be underperforming for them.

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3 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

If I wanted your opinion, Id give it to you.

I mean people already kinda know that you're not a very smart guy but this is just embarrassing levels of exposure.

If calpreps predicts that Archer will win by 30 and then they win by 39, that +9 is utterly meaningless. It's a blowout either way and the margin is irrelevant.

A +10 average for GA teams is meaningless in the context of crappy, irrelevant OOS games where most of the outcomes are known well before the games are played.

You are legitimately a stupid person.

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