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CalPreps Ratings vs. GAs OOS Game Performance - Weeks 0-7


ECHS05

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10 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Coffee was only 29.6 rating points higher than Taravella, clearly they are really much better.

No. They're. Not.

Taravella had a 0 rating. They're complete trash. Anybody with a pulse would put a running clock on them.

You keep looking at this from the Coffee perspective because you're a Georgia boob. But it doesn't say anything about Coffee. It says everything about Taravella. They're really, really bad.

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15 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

THE TEAMS ARE OUTPERFORMING ON THE FIELD COMPARED TO THE RATINGS...what do you not understand about that. Jesus.

No. They. Are. Not.

Everglades is trash.

Thomasville did what any team standing upright and registering a pulse would do.

It doesn't say anything about their relative quality.

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10 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said:

Hey @ECHS05 isn’t the GISA teams ranked in the overall Georgia rankings/ratings? I notice they are all ranked on maxpreps. 

I know you said they don’t play GHSA teams but doesn’t it matter since they are being lumped together in the rankings/ratings? 

No Georgia rankings maintained by the GHSA do not include the GISA teams at all... Only MP and CP do that crap and that's what makes it confusing. 

When overall state rankings are conducted the GISA is not included because they are independent and operate entirely separate from the GHSA. No connection at all..  

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16 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said:

Hey @ECHS05 isn’t the GISA teams ranked in the overall Georgia rankings/ratings? I notice they are all ranked on maxpreps. 

I know you said they don’t play GHSA teams but doesn’t it matter since they are being lumped together in the rankings/ratings? 

Ararar, Im going to tell Nolebull you hacked his account.

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Just now, Fred said:

I glanced at this today and it made me go look at Calpreps for Grayson.  Someone probably needs to tell them (him) that Mickey Conn hasn't been coach for going on 4 years now.  Makes me wonder about the veracity of the rest of his info.

Exactly. 

The way it is told, the coach sends in then info through a survey. I guess online through an email or something. 

So, when pointing out clear inaccuracies that I can see just on my team, I was reminded that the coach sends in the info, so, if the coach was fired and a new coach hired and whatnot... How did they get the info they show? 

Regardless of how they got it, or didn't get it, it's still wrong. 

If I know for a fact that one team is wrong, how many others are wrong? 

How can the entire system be trusted with wrong info, no matter how they got the wrong info? 

 

 

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On 9/15/2019 at 4:49 PM, ECHS05 said:

Its not the score Im using.  Im using the R-A-T-I-N-G-S. Ive already said that.

It. All. Relative. You dont understand that.

Westlake was scoring on JC during the game... But either way... Its the ratings that matter.

Coffee was only 29.6 rating points higher than Taravella, clearly they are really much better.

Westlake was 47.3 points lower than JC... Clearly they arent really that much worse.

Milton was over 25 points lower than JSerra... Milton controlled much of that game & only ended up losing by 3... That matters.

When it happens THAT much, it matters.

 

The biggest one is Thomasville. They were only rated 11.2 points higher than Everglades... It obviously matters they were 39 points better in the actual game.

You are a fucking idiot and dont get that. THE TEAMS ARE OUTPERFORMING ON THE FIELD COMPARED TO THE RATINGS...what do you not understand about that. Jesus.

 

The offense only managed 7 points.  How is that controlling the game.

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CP Projection: Miami Northwestern FL 28, Lowndes GA 8 ... GA -20

CP Ratings: Lowndes: 63.2 ; Northwestern: 72.9 ... GA -9.7

Actual Score: Lowndes 48, Northwestern 21 ... GA +27

Difference: GA outperformed by +36.7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Valdosta GA 63, Beaufort SC 6

CP Ratings: Valdosta 59.2 ; Beaufort: 1.2 ... GA +58

Actual Score: Valdosta 44, Beaufort 7 ... GA +37

Difference: GA underperformed by -21 ... +15.7 / 2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Lakeside (Evans) GA vs. Aiken SC

CP Ratings: Lakeside: 9.8 ; Aiken: -17.6 ... GA +27.4

Actual Score: Lakeside 42, Aiken 0 ... GA +42

Difference: GA outperformed by +14.6 ... +30.3 / 3 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Richmond Academy GA vs. Midland Valley SC

CP Ratings: Richmond Academy: -5.4 ; Midland Valley: -20.3 ... GA +14.9

Actual Score: Richmond 19, Midland Valley 0 ... GA +19

Difference: GA outperformed by +4.1 ... +34.4 / 4 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Pierce Co. GA vs. Bradford FL

CP Ratings: Pierce: 32.4 ; Bradford: 4.4 ... GA +28

Actual Score: Pierce 10, Bradford 0 ... GA +10

Difference: GA underperformed by -18 ... +16.4 / 5 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Early Co. GA vs. Eufaula AL

CP Ratings: Early Co.: 10.1 ; Eufaula: 8.9 ... GA +1.2

Actual Score: Eufaula 57, Early Co. 49 ... GA -8

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

+7.2 / 5 = +1.44

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  • 2 weeks later...

To see which is better..  Im using the Massey & CalPreps projections of the top 6 instate games.. 

And the OOSers will be below ... Not many for GA this week.

 

 

Massey: Colquitt 28, Grayson 15

CalPreps: Grayson 24, Colquitt 21

- - - - - - - - - - 

Massey: Lowndes 44, Valdosta 28

CalPreps: Lowndes 41, Valdosta 28

- - - - - - - - - - 

Massey: Archer 28, Buford 21

CalPreps: Buford 27, Archer 20

- - - - - - - - - - 

Massey: Milton 28, Parkview 20

CalPreps: Milton 27, Parkview 14

- - - - - - - - - - 

Massey: Warner Robins 34, Northside-WR 20

CalPreps: Warner Robins 38, Northside-WR 22

- - - - - - - - - - 

Massey: Hillgrove 36, South Forsyth 20

CalPreps: Hillgrove 35, South Forsyth 21

- - - - - 

OOS

CP Projection: McCallie TN 48, West Forsyth GA 6 (Massey: 35-14)

CP Ratings: McCallie: 55.8 ; West Forsyth: 18.5 ... GA -37.3

Actual Score: McCallie 19, West Forsyth 9 ... GA -10

Difference: GA outperformed by +27.3

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Lakeside (Evans) GA 38, Emerald SC 14 (Massey: 21-14)

CP Ratings: Lakeside: 12.6 ; Emerald: 1.3 ... GA +11.3

Actual Score: Lakeside 42, Emerald 7 ... GA +35

Difference: GA outperformed by +23.7

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

 

+51 / 2 games = +25.5 ppg

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Week 0 +195.7 ÷ 7 games = +27.96 ppg 

Week 1 : +177.6 ÷ 18 games = +9.87 ppg 

Week 2 :  +75.2 ÷ 7 games = +10.74 ppg

Week 3: +115.7 ÷ 8 games = +14.46 ppg

Week 4: +7.2 ÷ 5 games = +1.44 ppg

Week 5: +51 ÷ 2 games = +25.5 ppg

 

Week 6

CP Official Projection:  Edgewater FL 28, Marietta GA 24 ... GA -4 (Massey: 31-32)

CP Ratings: Edgewater: 60.2 ; Marietta: 67.8 ... GA + 7.6

Actual: Marietta 39, Edgewater 24 ... GA +15

Difference: GA outperformed by +7.4 (ratings)

- - - - - - - 

CP Official Projection: Coffee GA 40, Godby FL 28 ... GA +12 (Massey: 34-28)

CP Ratings: Coffee: +39.9 ; Godby: +30.4 ... GA +9.5

Actual: Godby 35, Coffee 28 ... GA -7

Difference: GA underperformed by -16.5 (ratings) (-9.1 / 2 games)

- - - - - - - 

CP Official Projection: Effingham Co. GA 24, Beaufort SC 22 ... GA +2 (Massey: 34-20)

CP Ratings: EC: 0 ; Beaufort: -1.5 ... GA +1.5

Actual: Effingham Co. 38, Beaufort 24 ... GA +14

Difference: GA outperformed by +12.5 (+3.4 / 3 games)

- - - - - - - 

CP Official Projection: Harris Co. GA 42, Beauregard AL 10 ... GA +32 (Massey: 42-14)

CP Ratings: Harris Co. +19.5 ; Beauregard: -13.3 ... GA +32.8

Actual: Harris Co. 38, Beauregard 14 ... GA +24

Difference: GA underperformed by -6.8 (-3.4 / 4 games)

- - - - - - - 

CP Official Projection: New Hampstead GA 41, Hilton Head SC 14 ... GA +27 (Massey: 42-14)

CP Ratings: New Hampstead: +14.8 ; Hilton Head: -2.3 ... GA +17.1

Actual: New Hampstead 50, Hilton Head 35 ... GA +15

Difference: GA underperformed by -2.1 (-5.5 /5 games)

- - - - - - - 

CP Official Projection: Richmond Hill GA 48, Bluffton SC 14 ... GA +34 (Massey: 42-14)

CP Ratings: Richmond Hill: +13.8 ; Bluffton: -4.5 ... GA +18.3 

Actual: Richmond Hill 49, Bluffton 17 ... GA +32

Difference: GA outperformed by +13.7 (+8.2 /6 games)

- - - - - - - 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Week 7 

 

CP Projection: Colquitt Co. GA 40, Trinity Christian FL 19 ... GA +21 (Massey: 42-14)

CP Ratings: Colquitt: 64.4 ; TCA: 43.6 ... GA +20.8

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Camden Co. GA 62, Colleton Co. SC 6 ... GA +56 (Massey: 48-8)

CP Ratings: Camden: 47 ; Colleton: -1 ... GA +48

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

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45 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Week 7 

 

CP Projection: Colquitt Co. GA 40, Trinity Christian FL 19 ... GA +21 (Massey: 42-14)

CP Ratings: Colquitt: 64.4 ; TCA: 43.6 ... GA +20.8

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Camden Co. GA 62, Colleton Co. SC 6 ... GA +56 (Massey: 48-8)

CP Ratings: Camden: 47 ; Colleton: -1 ... GA +48

Actual Score:

Difference:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

40-19 seems like a maybe. Classic Florida team missing 2 extra points. But that would mean they score 3 touchdowns. Maybe a meaningless one at the end

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