frankyjames Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Im not the one with the burden of proof. You are. Anyone can just say anything. That doesnt make it true. And what you are saying is randomly idiotic. Then offer a shred of proof to the contrary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ECHS05 said: Folsom has played 2 OOS games in the last 15 years... BOTH at home, to the same team.. Coeur d'Alene ID. Folsom wouldnt even grant them a return trip. Folsom isnt trying to play anybody but Idaho, OOS. Don’t F with Idaho. I remember a 6-3 team beat a team from Washington State and Dallas Jackson had that WA team in his national top 100 after the game! Can’t make it up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, frankyjames said: Then offer a shred of proof to the contrary. Let me offer the same proof you did. What you said is a lie ... Every 7A team in Georgia called Folsom, and Folsom told them they dont play teams outside of their area because they are scared to lose. There. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 Georgias Week 2 OOS Games CP Projection: Archer GA 35, Spartanburg SC 8 ... (GA +27) CP Ratings: Archer: 47.9 ; Spartanburg: 17.8 ... (GA +30.1) Actual Score: Archer 49, Spartanburg 10 ... GA +39 Difference: GA outperforms by +8.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: North Augusta SC 24, Grovetown GA 7 ... (GA -17) CP Ratings: Grovetown: -7.9 ; North Augusta: 5.1 ... (GA -13) Actual Score: North Augusta 17, Grovetown 16 ... GA -1 Difference: GA outperforms by +12 ... GA +20.9 in 2 games - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 28, North Miami Beach FL 7 ... (GA -21) CP Ratings: Bainbridge: 35.5 ; North Miami Beach: 14.9 ... (GA +20.6) Actual Score: Bainbridge 37, North Miami Beach 0 ... GA +37 Difference: GA outperforms by +16.4 ... +37.3 in 3 games - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Marist GA 48, Canyon Springs NV 3 ... (GA +45) CP Ratings: Marist: 38.5 ; Canyon Springs: 4 ... (GA +34.5) Actual Score: Marist 45, Canyon Springs 8 ... GA +37 Difference: GA outperforms by +2.5 ... +39.8 in 4 games - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Cedar Grove GA 27, Valor Christian CO 21 ... (GA +6) CP Ratings: Cedar Grove: 44.4 ; Valor Christian: 34.7 ... (GA +9.7) Actual Score: Cedar Grove 27, Valor Christian 17 ... GA +10 Difference: GA outperforms by +0.3 ... +40.1 through 5 games - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Prestonwood Christian TX 24, Greater Atl. Christian GA 21 ... (GA -3) CP Ratings: GAC: 12.6 ; Prestonwood Christian: 13.8 ... (GA -1.2) Actual Score: GAC 34, Prestonwood Christian 27 ... GA +7 Difference: GA outperforms by +8.2 ... +48.3 through 6 games - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Laney GA 28, McCormick SC 12 ... (GA +16) CP Ratings: Laney: -24.3 ; McCormick: -39.4 ... (GA +15.1) Actual Score: Laney 42, McCormick 0 ... GA +42 Difference: GA outperforms by +26.9 ... +75.2 through 7 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 4, 2019 Report Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 hour ago, ECHS05 said: Georgias Week 2 OOS Games CP Projection: Archer GA 35, Spartanburg SC 8 ... (GA +27) CP Ratings: Archer: 47.9 ; Spartanburg: 17.8 ... (GA +30.1) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Beaufort SC 26, Effingham Co. GA 20 ... (GA -6) CP Ratings: Effingham Co.: -9.2 ; Beaufort: 0 ... (GA -9.2) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: North Augusta SC 24, Grovetown GA 7 ... (GA -17) CP Ratings: Grovetown: -7.9 ; North Augusta: 5.1 ... (GA -13) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 28, North Miami Beach FL 7 ... (GA -21) CP Ratings: Bainbridge: 35.5 ; North Miami Beach: 14.9 ... (GA +20.6) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Bolles FL 38, New Hampstead GA 17 ... (GA -21) CP Ratings: New Hampstead: -2.5 ; Bolles: 23.9 ... (GA -26.4) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Rockledge FL 50, Columbia GA 0 ... (GA -50) CP Ratings: Columbia: -10.6 ; Rockledge: 46.3 ... (GA -56.9) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Marist GA 48, Canyon Springs NV 3 ... (GA +45) CP Ratings: Marist: 38.5 ; Canyon Springs: 4 ... (GA +34.5) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Cedar Grove GA 27, Valor Christian CO 21 ... (GA +6) CP Ratings: Cedar Grove: 44.4 ; Valor Christian: 34.7 ... (GA +9.7) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Prestonwood Christian TX 24, Greater Atl. Christian GA 21 ... (GA -3) CP Ratings: GAC: 12.6 ; Prestonwood Christian: 13.8 ... (GA -1.2) Actual Score: Difference: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Laney GA 28, McCormick SC 12 ... (GA +16) CP Ratings: Laney: -24.3 ; McCormick: -39.4 ... (GA +15.1) Actual Score: Difference: Bolles vs New Hampstead and Columbia vs Rockledge are both cancelled. As well as Fort Dorchester at Viera. No one on that side of the coast is traveling and most every team on East Coast of Florida has postponed or cancelled this coming weeks game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 4, 2019 Report Share Posted September 4, 2019 Not sure if NMB is coming up. Will find out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted September 4, 2019 Report Share Posted September 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Nolebull813 said: Not sure if NMB is coming up. Will find out Big Loser W/nothing? Wharton playing this weekend? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 4, 2019 Report Share Posted September 4, 2019 5 hours ago, RedZone said: Big Loser W/nothing? Wharton playing this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 On 9/3/2019 at 8:51 AM, ECHS05 said: Strange happenings... @golfaddict1 ... This morning, going from yesterday to today... Every single team in Georgia was docked -.5 rating points. Why would they do that? Monday to Tuesday adjustment seems odd, but perhaps due to the holiday weekend, adjustments were delayed. Based on the quick review I saw from your analysis this past week, GA did fine OOS vs expected and they have 7 teams rated in the top 100 (48.6 cap) and 53 teams in the top 1000 (20.2 cap) and that has more than lapped NC, who had a lead on GA the prior week. NC this week has 1 team rated in the top 100 and 24 teams rated in the top 1000. I noticed this because yesterday I wrote out all of Georgias OOS games & had the GA teams ratings written in. I go back & look 5 minutes ago & every single team is exactly .5 points lower. Wonder if this happened to any other states. Its also more proof someone is manually maneuvering these teams. Also, the first time Marietta loses, SJP is gonna jump ahead of them... Because of starting ratings. SJP is exactly 0.2 behind Marietta due to that little rule they have. If an undefeated team has beaten another team, that team cannot be ahead of the undefeated team no matter what, so they scale them .2 points behind until they lose. Notice Armwood is only .1 behind North Gwinnett, seemingly because North Gwinnett already has a loss. GA's opponent schedule is quite low right now, along with PA among other states. Maryland won't last that high overall as more teams play in state (similar to NJ). If this was a list of much less than a top 50, MD would be flexing more for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 I have a question for the mathematicians that are tracking CP and know more about it than myself... Why is Armwood at 62 and North Gwinnett at 67 when NG beat Armwood h2h and only have a loss to number 42 Colquitt, while Armwood only has a win over a team outside the top 500 and a loss to number 67? Is it an overall strength of schedule thing? It just seems like at this point, given the actual win/loss records and data, NG should be ahead of Armwood. Is this an anomaly or something you guys see as a legitimate rating for the two teams? @golfaddict1 @ECHS05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 20 hours ago, RedZone said: Big Loser W/nothing? Wharton playing this weekend? Ar first glance I thought your new avatar was the Wharton logo. It would've been a great troll job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: It just seems like at this point, given the actual win/loss records and data, NG should be ahead of Armwood. If anything Armwood's raw rating should be higher given how they get a -15 adjustment for a double OT loss. In other words, North Gwinnett is getting a +15 bump on Armwood even though they tied at the end of regulation and won by 3 in double OT. It's one of the several flaws in the algorithm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 hour ago, HawgGoneIt said: I have a question for the mathematicians that are tracking CP and know more about it than myself... Why is Armwood at 62 and North Gwinnett at 67 when NG beat Armwood h2h and only have a loss to number 42 Colquitt, while Armwood only has a win over a team outside the top 500 and a loss to number 67? Is it an overall strength of schedule thing? It just seems like at this point, given the actual win/loss records and data, NG should be ahead of Armwood. Is this an anomaly or something you guys see as a legitimate rating for the two teams? @golfaddict1 @ECHS05 Armwood is inflated preseason based on recruits most likely. Freeman mentions schools with more D1's (loaded up) having an inflated preseason start and a North Gwinnett won't get this boost (assuming the D1 count isn't similar). Head to head the algorithm doesn't analyze... they could have the same team beating another 5 times in a season and be rated lower based on other game performances of weakness and perhaps a better playoff run (boost). By October, let's have another look at these two schools ratings and I think you'll see a drop with Armwood coming (until the playoff boost lol). I think it's an early scaled boost season advantage that in most cases will be resolved with multiple quality opponents. In some cases an elite team will keep a lofty rating and even increase with dominance... but the majority won't sustain the lofty early rating and when facing a quality opponent(s), the reality check hits and the rating will drop. As some super teams play one another, we will see some chutes and ladders changes for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Armwood's dumb for taking an OOS game in GA without any media covering it...not a good idea. Who knows what the F happened out there. Not even a highlight of an OT game. I've always said the refs are the worst when no one is watching. That being said seriously is there no video on this game? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 14 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said: I have a question for the mathematicians that are tracking CP and know more about it than myself... Why is Armwood at 62 and North Gwinnett at 67 when NG beat Armwood h2h and only have a loss to number 42 Colquitt, while Armwood only has a win over a team outside the top 500 and a loss to number 67? Is it an overall strength of schedule thing? It just seems like at this point, given the actual win/loss records and data, NG should be ahead of Armwood. Is this an anomaly or something you guys see as a legitimate rating for the two teams? @golfaddict1 @ECHS05 Starting Ratings. Armwood started higher. Now Marietta is only .2 higher than St. Josephs Prep. If Marietta had a loss, SJP would be higher despite the loss. But a team (SJP) cant be higher than a team (Marietta) they lost to thats undefeated... No matter how bad the undefeated teams rating/schedule may be. North Gwinnett isnt undefeated so the rule doesnt apply to Armwood.. And Armwood started much higher than North Gwinnett. Starting ratings essentially count as a performance rating for every team. Once more games are played, the starting ratings will have much less influence on the ratings as a whole as theyll be a smaller percentage of the pie... But right now, they matter a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 12 hours ago, The Guru said: Ar first glance I thought your new avatar was the Wharton logo. It would've been a great troll job. No it would have made him look like an unhinged pussy. Not that he needed to do it for people to already know he is one. Where I went to school 17-20 years ago doesn’t mean shit about watching good football from around the country. That’s like saying you didn’t play in the NFL or even work for the NFL so you shouldn’t be allowed to watch and observe the games. You and Cajun are the laughing stock of the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 16 hours ago, 954gator said: Armwood's dumb for taking an OOS game in GA without any media covering it...not a good idea. Who knows what the F happened out there. Not even a highlight of an OT game. I've always said the refs are the worst when no one is watching. That being said seriously is there no video on this game? Remember Sandy Creek! (Sung to tune of “13 Days of Glory at Seige of Alamo”) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankyjames Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Nolebull813 said: No it would have made him look like an unhinged pussy. Must be all those needles and homeless people on your street going to your head. SMH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 51 minutes ago, frankyjames said: Must be all those needles and homeless people on your street going to your head. SMH Dude you already said that stupid joke and no one laughed the first time. Give it up. Folsom will lose to DLS then go undefeated, then play some garbage San Diego team that wouldn’t even make the top 7 in the six team Trinity League. Take a lap 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 17 hours ago, 954gator said: Armwood's dumb for taking an OOS game in GA without any media covering it...not a good idea. Who knows what the F happened out there. Not even a highlight of an OT game. I've always said the refs are the worst when no one is watching. That being said seriously is there no video on this game? SJP & Marietta was one of the best ref'd OOS games Ive seen. At times it felt like they were actually against Marietta. I dont think refs in North GA care as much as South GA (aka Colquitt, Lee, Lowndes, Valdosta, Camden, etc...) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: SJP & Marietta was one of the best ref'd OOS games Ive seen. At times it felt like they were actually against Marietta. I dont think refs in North GA care as much as South GA (aka Colquitt, Lee, Lowndes, Valdosta, Camden, etc...) I thought it was too. I just find it weird that basically all of NG's games have been streamed and also had a ton of footage and highlights, yet their OOS....NADA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, 954gator said: I thought it was too. I just find it weird that basically all of NG's games have been streamed and also had a ton of footage and highlights, yet their OOS....NADA. Its definitely weird. But theres no way they wouldnt stream/broadcast it just so the refs could call more flags... I just want to see it because it sounds/looks like it was a damn good game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Not surprised SMH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, 954gator said: Not surprised SMH. Why in OOS games, if the away team gets flagged, its like Auto-BS. Are away teams suppose to be able to do whatever they want? Impossible to say if it was legit or not without video... But to assume without knowing, nah homey. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 https://www.maxpreps.com/m/high-schools/north-gwinnett-bulldogs-(suwanee,ga)/football/videos.htm?videoid=4e35e11b-af08-44cc-9e23-2595b24c2cf7 Here's atleast SOME highlights 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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