HawgGoneIt Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Makes sense. Clearly North Carolina is much better than Georgia at all aspects of the game. They have more and better of everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaximumHornetSting Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: Makes sense. Clearly North Carolina is much better than Georgia at all aspects of the game. They have more and better of everything. I know this is sarcasm but NC has some decent teams. But they're top heavy... It's like a reverse California... Top heavy public's with 1 or 2 decent privates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Having a glance at 2018 end of year state's top 50's average schedule strength. With IMG if one cares to, you can move FL down .3 in avg. schedule strength if you switch with FL #51, to 32.4 total and with avg. rating removing IMG would be .8 reduction to 51.5 What I noticed right away was the variance with Avg. schedule strength of the 5 state powers (1-50 in state) being so wide from Cali vs the rest and also TX was way down... you can say within the ballpark of GA's. Now granted, Cali is loaded and you have some very good teams beyond the top 5 we discuss often here, but that's a wide variance right there and no doubt with that lofty rating, the top 100 and top 1000 will also be affected. It's not just GA we discuss here about CalPreps... any state is fair game and let's be honest, it was comments Freeman read that changed his mind about how to state scale and it's still a work in progress as this year he handpicked a top 25 to look better on a glamour cover I suppose. He claims it was related to schedule strength, which in itself is misleading (see 2018 SFA) and he also didn't factor in that the better teams will get a playoff boost with more emphasis of importance in a team rating overall that Freeman states on his site. I dig the site and the novelty tools (like Massey), but in the end it all starts with the state scale (your D in a box like the SNL skit) and unless you play OOS, you are bound by that state's cap and movement potential. I've stated it often, I think Hawaii is jacked up too much by CalPreps and Massey has a weird affection for Nebraska (I think it's the Penny character from Big Bang Theory ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: Having a glance at 2018 end of year state's top 50's average schedule strength. With IMG if one cares to, you can move FL down .3 in avg. schedule strength if you switch with FL #51, to 32.4 total and with avg. rating removing IMG would be .8 reduction to 51.5 What I noticed right away was the variance with Avg. schedule strength of the 5 state powers (1-50 in state) being so wide from Cali vs the rest and also TX was way down... you can say within the ballpark of GA's. Now granted, Cali is loaded and you have some very good teams beyond the top 5 we discuss often here, but that's a wide variance right there and no doubt with that lofty rating, the top 100 and top 1000 will also be affected. It's not just GA we discuss here about CalPreps... any state is fair game and let's be honest, it was comments Freeman read that changed his mind about how to state scale and it's still a work in progress as this year he handpicked a top 25 to look better on a glamour cover I suppose. He claims it was related to schedule strength, which in itself is misleading (see 2018 SFA) and he also didn't factor in that the better teams will get a playoff boost with more emphasis of importance in a team rating overall that Freeman states on his site. I dig the site and the novelty tools (like Massey), but in the end it all starts with the state scale (your D in a box like the SNL skit) and unless you play OOS, you are bound by that state's cap and movement potential. I've stated it often, I think Hawaii is jacked up too much by CalPreps and Massey has a weird affection for Nebraska (I think it's the Penny character from Big Bang Theory ). I may do Hawaii , and a couple other random states too before the games this week. Hawaii would be easy because its so small... They cant be playing a ton of OOS games. Do ... Meaning, post ratings before the games are played & then the actual results... Id need to do it all year though, to show if theres actually any improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Heres Hawaii for this week.... Theres 47 teams in Hawaii & their #s 1, 2, 3, & 7 are all playing Oos... And are all projected to win. CP Projection: St. Louis HI 41, Bishop Gorman NV 26 ... (HI +15) Ratings: St. Louis: 74.6 ; Bishop Gorman: 65.3 ... (HI +9.3) Actual: St. Louis HI 31, Bishop Gorman NV 19 ... (HI +12) Difference: HI outperforms by +2.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Mililani HI 28, Liberty NV 14 ... (HI +14) Ratings: Mililani: 56.5 ; Liberty: 43.9 ... (HI +12.6) Actual: Mililani HI 34, Liberty NV 22 ... (HI +12) Difference: HI underperforms by -0.6 ... (+2.1 through 2 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Punahou HI 31, Long Beach Poly CA 12 ... (HI +19) Ratings: Punahou: 41.9 ; Long Beach Poly: 27.7 ... (HI +14.2) Actual: Punahou HI 45, Long Beach Poly CA 0 ... (HI +45) Difference: HI outperforms by +30.8 ... (+32.9 through 3 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projection: Kapolei HI 35, Downey CA 21 ... (HI +14) Ratings: Kapolei: 14 ; Downey: 1.5 ... (HI +12.5) Actual: Kapolei HI 31, Downey CA 28 ... (HI +3) Difference: HI underperforms by -9.5 ... (+23.4 through 4 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HI outperforms by +23.4 points through 4 games... Which is +5.85 points per game. Clearly the Punahou vs LBP game had a big affect on this... If you take that 1 game out, HI is at -7.4 in the red. That could mean LBP is vastly overrated, or it could mean Punahou is vastly underrated, or a little of both. Be nice if we had a larger sample size than 4 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Westlake,GA is playing Davis,AL not Clay Chalk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said: Westlake,GA is playing Davis,AL not Clay Chalk Yeah youre right. On ghsa.net its still Clay-Chalkville & on MaxPreps/CalPreps it has both. Had to go on their twitter to get a final answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Couldnt help but notice on almost all of Georgias projections, they are predicted to lose by more & win by less than the difference of the ratings. Tells you what CP thinks of GA teams... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Madness, I tell ya! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Is there a website I can go to with all of Californias OOS games for the week? ... Obviously without having to search through over 1000 teams 1 at a time on CalPreps? The way CP does Cali... I could almost do each Section individually... The SS would be a good one to expose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted August 28, 2019 Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 41 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said: Weird... But ok, changed to reflect those games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 29, 2019 Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 3 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Is there a website I can go to with all of Californias OOS games for the week? ... Obviously without having to search through over 1000 teams 1 at a time on CalPreps? The way CP does Cali... I could almost do each Section individually... The SS would be a good one to expose. Massey Ratings... use this link and look under the standings column. Any team without a ranking showing is an out of state team playing a Cali team. Mt Pleasant for example is the first one listed. https://www.masseyratings.com/hsf/california/games What I like to do is nationally get the week's schedule and you can click on the standing column and see the games with the closest ratings playing. This is how it looks from the top down currently. I'm actually surprised Massey has these games predicted already. Usually it's either blank or not until later in the week. Unfortunately, we'll never know about the BC-STA game... the best we can do is setup a playstation or Xbox game or stratomatic football cards assembled and get it on lol. Massey is not digging NJ on the road... we won't have to guess what if with SJR and that seems like an odd prediction. We will see. I guess many of these games are in your pick em challenge. Also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2019 6 hours ago, golfaddict1 said: Massey Ratings... use this link and look under the standings column. Any team without a ranking showing is an out of state team playing a Cali team. Mt Pleasant for example is the first one listed. https://www.masseyratings.com/hsf/california/games What I like to do is nationally get the week's schedule and you can click on the standing column and see the games with the closest ratings playing. This is how it looks from the top down currently. I'm actually surprised Massey has these games predicted already. Usually it's either blank or not until later in the week. Unfortunately, we'll never know about the BC-STA game... the best we can do is setup a playstation or Xbox game or stratomatic football cards assembled and get it on lol. Massey is not digging NJ on the road... we won't have to guess what if with SJR and that seems like an odd prediction. We will see. I guess many of these games are in your pick em challenge. Also Ah, ok that makes it a lot easier. I may do Cali this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted August 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 On 8/27/2019 at 5:13 PM, ECHS05 said: There was 3 GA teams in the top 100 last week, now theres 4 with McEachern coming in at 99. There were 34 Georgia teams in the Top 1000 last week, this week theres 35... Not sure who the new addition is there. But yeah, there literally is NO other way to scale states together other than by using OOS game performances. Ill get all the Performances updated after todays games are played but for now... @golfaddict1 It went from 4 in the top 100, and 35 in the top 1000 on Tuesday To 7 in the top 100 today (#s 8 & 9 are right outside the Top 100 at 103 & 104), and 54 in the top 1000.... 3 have been added to the top 100, and 19 added to the top 1000 Theres only 1 way thats really possible, atleast to add that many to the top 1000 that quick, and thats if he really did add a state scaling affect via OOS results. Him starting them so slow forcing them to play catchup means theyll never be on the positive side of the line though. There are people here like Pops, that dont get it in the least, that think even if he started every Georgia team at a -10,000 rating to start the year, by October all would be gravy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 31, 2019 Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 31 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Ill get all the Performances updated after todays games are played but for now... @golfaddict1 It went from 4 in the top 100, and 35 in the top 1000 on Tuesday To 7 in the top 100 today (#s 8 & 9 are right outside the Top 100 at 103 & 104), and 54 in the top 1000.... 3 have been added to the top 100, and 19 added to the top 1000 Theres only 1 way thats really possible, atleast to add that many to the top 1000 that quick, and thats if he really did add a state scaling affect via OOS results. Him starting them so slow forcing them to play catchup means theyll never be on the positive side of the line though. There are people here like Pops, that dont get it in the least, that think even if he started every Georgia team at a -10,000 rating to start the year, by October all would be gravy. You can't keep a good state down... not even Freeman anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 On 8/27/2019 at 9:01 PM, ECHS05 said: CP Projections: Armwood FL 27, North Gwinnett GA 7 ... (GA -20) Ratings: North Gwinnett: 43.9 ; Armwood: 59.7 ... (GA -15.8) Actual: North Gwinnett 26, Armwood 23 ... (GA +3) Difference: GA outperforms by +18.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Bartram Trail FL 49, Brunswick GA 17 ... (GA -32) Ratings: Brunswick: -7.5 ; Bartram Trail: 22.8 ... (GA -30.3) Actual: Bartram Trail FL 24, Brunswick GA 7 ... (GA -17) Difference: GA outperforms by +13.3 ... (+32.1 through 2 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Camden Co. GA 34, Wren SC 21 ... (GA +13) Ratings: Camden Co.: 33.8 ; Wren: 25.4 ... (GA +8.4) Actual: Camden Co. GA 52, Wren SC 44 ... (GA +8) Difference: GA underperforms by -0.4 ... (+31.7 through 3 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Lowndes GA 35, Champagnat Catholic FL 20 ... (GA +15) Ratings: Lowndes: 45.7 ; Champagnat Catholic: 9.8 ... (GA +35.9) (Not sure why the big difference in projection & rating) Actual: Lowndes GA 44, Champagnat Catholic FL 14 ...(GA +30) Difference: GA outperforms the projection by 15, but underperforms in Ratings by -5.9 ... Weird but Im using the ratings so this is an underperformance .... (+25.8 through 4 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Westlake GA 26, Jeff Davis AL 20 ... (GA +6) Ratings: Westlake: 8.6 ; Jeff Davis: 0.5 ... (GA +8.1) Actual: Westlake GA 30, Jeff Davis AL 14 ... (GA +16) Difference: GA outperforms by +7.9 (+33.7 through 5 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: St. Josephs Prep PA 40, Marietta GA 14 ... (GA -26) Ratings: Marietta: 54.4 ; St. Josephs Prep: 74.3 ... (GA -19.9) Actual: Marietta GA 21, St. Joseph's Prep PA 17 ... (GA +4) Difference: GA outperforms by +23.9 (+56.6 through 6 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Hewitt-Trussville AL 55, West Forsyth GA 7 ... (GA -48) Ratings: West Forsyth: 10.7 ; Hewitt-Trussville: 49.9 ... (GA -39.2) Actual: Hewitt-Trussville AL 47, West Forsyth GA 19 ... (GA -28) Difference: GA outperforms by +11.2 ... (+67.8 through 7 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Lee Co. GA 31, Life Christian Academy VA 10 ... (GA +21) Ratings: Lee Co.: 53 ; LCA: 20.3 ... (GA +32.7) (LCA outperformed their rating the first game... Appears to be why the big different in projection vs. Rating) Actual: Lee Co. GA 27, LCA 0 ... (GA +27) Difference: Id rather not count this one as it was called early due to bad sportsmanship from LCA , BUT its going to be put this way into CalPreps so I have to if I want to be accurate... GA underperforms by -5.7 ... (+62.1 through 8 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: North Augusta SC 21, Evans GA 17 ... (GA -4) Ratings: Evans: -6.5 ; North Augusta: -3.4 ... (GA -3.1) Actual: North Augusta SC 14, Evans GA 7 ... (GA -7) Difference: GA underperforms by -3.9 ... (+58.2 through 9 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Midland Valley SC 28, Grovetown GA 21 ... (GA -7) Ratings: Grovetown: -11.4 ; Midland Valley: -18.7 ... (GA +7.3) Actual: Grovetown GA 27, Midland Valley SC 0 ... (GA +27) Difference: GA outperforms by +19.7 ... (GA +77.9 through 10 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: South Aiken SC 27, Lakeside (Evans) GA 17 ... (GA -10) Ratings: Lakeside (Evans): -7.8 ; South Aiken: 2.4 ... (GA -10.2) Actual: Lakeside (Evans) GA 36, South Aiken SC 21 ... (GA +15) Difference: GA outperforms by +25.2 ... (+103.1 through 11 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Mays GA 27, Carver AL 14 ... (GA +13) Ratings: Mays: -2.6 ; Carver AL: -10.4 ... (GA +7.8) Actual: Mays GA 49, Carver AL 21 ... (GA +28) Difference: GA outperforms by +20.2 ... (+123.3 through 12 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Jones FL 42, Johns Creek GA 7 ... (GA -35) Ratings: Johns Creek: -1.8 ; Jones: 31.8 ... (GA -33.6) Actual: Jones FL 47, Johns Creek GA 16 ... (GA -31) Difference: GA outperforms by +2.6 ... (+125.9 through 13 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Griffin GA 35, Fairfield AL 13 ... (GA +22) Ratings: Griffin: 7.4 ; Fairfield: -7.1 ... (GA +14.5) Actual: Griffin GA 44, Fairfield AL 6 ... (GA +38) Difference: GA outperforms by +23.5 ... (+149.4 through 14 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Central (Phenix City) AL 34, Cedar Grove GA 12 ... (GA -22) Ratings: Cedar Grove: 42.6 ; Central: 58.9 ... (GA -16.3) Actual: Central AL 24, Cedar Grove GA 20 ... (GA -4) Difference: GA outperforms by +12.3 ... (+161.7 through 15 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: North Sand Mountain AL 40, Dade Co. GA 6 ... (GA -34) Ratings: Dade Co.: -46 ; North Sand Mountain: -10.4 ... (GA -35.6) Actual: North Sand Mountain AL 28, Dade Co. GA 26 ... (GA -2) Difference: GA outperforms by +33.6 ... ( 195.3 through 16 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Savannah Christian GA 31, Oceanside Collegiate SC 26 ... (GA +4) Ratings: Sav. Christian: 7.2 ; Oceanside: 0.1 ... (GA +7.1) Actual: Oceanside Collegiate SC 49, Savannah Christian GA 7 ... GA -42 Difference: Letting 1 game change the #s this much is probably a mistake because this is more of an extreme outlier.. But whatevs... GA underperforms by -49.1 ... (+146.2 through 17 games) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CP Projections: Lincoln Co. GA 28, McCormick SC 14 ... (GA +14) Ratings: Lincoln Co.: -30.2 ; McCormick: -40.6 ... (GA +10.4) Actual: Lincoln Co. GA 41, McCormick SC 0 ... (GA +41) Difference: GA outperforms by +31.4. ... (+177.6 through 18 games) Georgia outperforms by +9.87 points per game through 18 total games. Game outperformed in 13 games, & underperformed in 5. Take out just the ONE extreme outlier where GA underperformed by -49.1 ... And it becomes +13.34 per game. The +9.87 per game means...... Every Georgia teams rating should be +9.87 points higher on average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, ECHS05 said: Georgia outperforms by +9.87 points per game through 18 total games. Game outperformed in 13 games, & underperformed in 5. Take out just the ONE extreme outlier where GA underperformed by -49.1 ... And it becomes +13.34 per game. The +9.87 per game means...... Every Georgia teams rating should be +9.87 points higher on average. It would be prudent for you see a professional. peace 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, noonereal said: It would be prudent for you see a professional. peace Why don’t you help him then? PM him and set up some private sessions so he can get back on track and be a functioning member of society. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said: Why don’t you help him then? PM him and set up some private sessions so he can get back on track and be a functioning member of society. I already offered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted September 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 Strange happenings... @golfaddict1 ... This morning, going from yesterday to today... Every single team in Georgia was docked -.5 rating points. Why would they do that? I noticed this because yesterday I wrote out all of Georgias OOS games & had the GA teams ratings written in. I go back & look 5 minutes ago & every single team is exactly .5 points lower. Wonder if this happened to any other states. Its also more proof someone is manually maneuvering these teams. Also, the first time Marietta loses, SJP is gonna jump ahead of them... Because of starting ratings. SJP is exactly 0.2 behind Marietta due to that little rule they have. If an undefeated team has beaten another team, that team cannot be ahead of the undefeated team no matter what, so they scale them .2 points behind until they lose. Notice Armwood is only .1 behind North Gwinnett, seemingly because North Gwinnett already has a loss. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 On 8/27/2019 at 8:45 AM, Ararar said: Obsessive-compulsive disorder Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a mental disorder in which people have unwanted and repeated thoughts, feelings, ideas, sensations (obsessions), and behaviors that drive them to do something over and over (compulsions). Often the person carries out the behaviors to get rid of the obsessive thoughts. But this only provides short-term relief. Not doing the obsessive rituals can cause great anxiety and distress. I offered to help. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 hour ago, ECHS05 said: Strange happenings... @golfaddict1 ... This morning, going from yesterday to today... Every single team in Georgia was docked -.5 rating points. Why would they do that? I noticed this because yesterday I wrote out all of Georgias OOS games & had the GA teams ratings written in. I go back & look 5 minutes ago & every single team is exactly .5 points lower. Wonder if this happened to any other states. Its also more proof someone is manually maneuvering these teams. Also, the first time Marietta loses, SJP is gonna jump ahead of them... Because of starting ratings. SJP is exactly 0.2 behind Marietta due to that little rule they have. If an undefeated team has beaten another team, that team cannot be ahead of the undefeated team no matter what, so they scale them .2 points behind until they lose. Notice Armwood is only .1 behind North Gwinnett, seemingly because North Gwinnett already has a loss. They are putting Georgia "as they prefer" They think they are being slick. Glad you are watching their bullshit. Thanks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 Pretty serious stuff happening in this thread.....😄 Where is East Coweta at Calpreps? Close to right or wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted September 3, 2019 Report Share Posted September 3, 2019 Oh, I see them now..#204 in GA 204 East Coweta (Sharpsburg, GA) team preview trend Georgia AAAAAAA Region 2 AAAAAAA 0-2 0-0 0-1 -2.2 22.8 2-1 WINS: none, LOSSES: #792 Carrollton (GA) (33-3), #851 Mill Creek (Hoschton, GA) (38-6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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