CalPreps: Georgias State Scaling in 2017 (OOS Results)

[ECHS05]

Over the years Ive done this with CalPreps to show its lack of state scaling, as its truly the best and really the only way to actually see state scaling.

Not using CalPreps' PAM... Im using CPs actual Team Ratings... 

Heres the process.... I post game results(scores) from 1 specific state vs all their OOS opponents, and show each teams Rating difference compared to their opponent to see how they did in their OOS game as far as outperforming or underperforming in relation to their ratings.... This is really the only way State Scaling can be achieved without bias. If you dont use this...  Then the only other way is just manually scale the states where you want them, and obviously this creates bias...

Im going to do Georgia 1st... Then I'll do some other states...

It only works if you look at all of the OOS games for a specific state though.... (Also to better scale the Divisions/Classes vs each other within a state.. You can do this same thing for instate games... Like do GA 7A vs 6A and see which of them underperformed or ourperformed compared to their ratings...and youll get an idea if smaller classes are ranked too high or low as compared to larger classes)

Obviously this is for the 2017 season...

And BTW ----! Better State Scaling = More Accurate National Rankings... Thats the entire point!!!

 

Georgia: (For GA, I only use GHSA teams, aka 1A-7A... Because GHSA and GISA dont play each other so those are 2 seperate scales anyway).. And nobody gives 2 shits about the GISA...

Here are the Overall Totals I came up with if you dont want to look at every single game: (You can check State-by-State results below)

******************************************

Total GHSA(1A-7A)OOS Games: 49

Total Points: +131.4

Performance Average: Outperformed by +2.68 PPG (Meaning GA teams outperformed, or outscored, their Team Ratings by an average of 2.68 PPG vs OOS teams)

******************************************

**Obviously GA did better vs some states & worse vs others... The ones they did well against, means those states are probably scaled too high, and the ones GA did poorly against, probably means those states are scaled too low**

Looking at these numbers above ... Compared to most years, 2017 was an improvement for CalPreps as far as ranking GA teams... It use to be +8 or more points every year GA was underrated by... But here you can see it was only +2.68 ppg this season.

 

 

vs Alabama: (GA underperformed by -15.1 points in 14 games vs AL)

OOS Result: Abbeville AL 24, Randolph-Clay GA 18 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: Abbeville: -13.3 ; Randolph-Clay: -24.7 ... (GA -11.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA +5.4, 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cedartown GA 41, Cherokee Co. AL 14 ... (GA +27)

Team Ratings: Cedartown: 39.4 ; Cherokee Co.: 5.9 ... (GA +33.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -6.5 ... (GA -1.1, 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Darlington GA 50, Gaston AL 0 ... (GA +50)

Team Ratings: Darlington: 16.5 ; Gaston: -46.1 ... (GA +62.6)

Difference: GA underperformed by -12.6 ... (GA -13.7, 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Eufaula AL 42, Early Co. GA 20 ... (GA -22)

Team Ratings: Eufaula: 18.2 ; Early Co.: -1.2 ... (GA -19.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -2.6 ... (GA -16.3, 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Fort Payne AL 30, Chattooga GA 28 ... (GA -2)

Team Ratings: Fort Payne: 13.1 ; Chattooga: 1.6 ... (GA -11.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +9.5 ... (GA -6.8, 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 35, Hoover AL 26 ... (GA +9)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Hoover: 65.7 ... (GA -4.9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +13.9 ... (GA +7.1, 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Mt. Zion GA 43, Ranburne AL 14 ... (GA +29)

Team Ratings: Mt. Zion: 24.7 ; Ranburne: -13.4 ... (GA +38.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.1 ... (GA -2, 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: North Sand Mountain AL 28, Dade Co. GA 27 ... (GA -1)

Team Ratings: NSM: -4.3 ; Dade Co.: -8.5 ... (GA -4.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +3.2 ... (GA +1.2, 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Rockmart GA 36, Piedmont AL 22 ... (GA +14)

Team Ratings: Rockmart: 21.5 ; Piedmont: 17.8 ... (GA +3.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +10.3 ... (GA +11.5, 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Thompson AL 21, Hapeville Charter GA 20 ... (GA -1)

Team Ratings: Thompson: 59.2 ; Hapeville Charter: 52.8 ... (GA -6.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA +16.9 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Saraland AL 17, Heard Co. GA 14 ... (GA -3)

Team Ratings: Saraland: 29.3 ; Heard Co.: 35.4 ... (GA +6.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.1 ... (GA +7.8 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Callaway GA 35, Handley AL 0 ... (GA +35)

Team Ratings: Callaway: 29.1 ; Handley: -10.8 ... (GA +39.9)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.9 ... (GA +2.9 , 12 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 42, Ramsay AL 16 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Ramsay: 30.2 ... (GA +30.6)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.6 ... (GA -1.7 , 13 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Dothan AL 29, Early Co. GA 20 ... (GA -9)

Team Ratings: Dothan: -5.6 ; Early Co.: -1.2 ... (GA +4.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -13.4 ... (GA -15.1 , 14 games vs AL)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs California: (GA outperformed by +1.5 points in 1 game vs. CA)

OOS Result: Colquitt Co. GA 26, Vista Murrieta CA 7 ... (GA +19)

Team Ratings: Colquitt Co.: 63 ; Vista Murrieta: 45.5 ... (GA +17.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +1.5 ... (GA +1.5, 1 game vs CA)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Colorado: (GA underperformed by -9.8 points in 1 game vs CO)

OOS Result: Valor Christian CO 28, Greater Atl. Christian GA 22 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: Valor Christian: 42.1 ; Greater Atl. Christian: 45.9 ... (GA +3.8)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.8 ... (GA -9.8, 1 game vs CO)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Florida: (GA outperformed by +91.1 points in 12 games vs Florida)

OOS Result: Camden Co. GA 19, Oakleaf FL 6 ... (GA +13)

Team Ratings: Camden Co.: 33.3 ; Oakleaf: 20.9 ... (GA +12.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +0.6 ... (GA +0.6, 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Buford GA 34, Melbourne Central Catholic FL 17 ... (GA +17)

Team Ratings: Buford: 54.3 ; MCC : 37.2 ... (GA +17.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -0.1 ... (GA +0.5 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Lowndes GA 56, Broward International FL 0 ... (GA +56)

Team Ratings: Lowndes: 61 ; Broward Int.: -2.2 ... (GA +63.2)

Difference: NOT COUNTING THIS GAME BECAUSE IT WAS CALLED 3 MINUTES INTO THE 3RD QUARTER AT 56-0

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Venice FL 35, Camden Co. GA 3 ... (GA -32)

Team Ratings: Venice: 68.1 ; Camden Co.: 33.3 ... (GA -34.8)

Difference: GA outperformed by +2.8 ... (GA +3.3 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cartersville GA 52, Bartram Trail FL 45 ... (GA +7)

Team Ratings: Cartersville: 57.3 ; Bartram Trail: 57.3 ... (GA +-0)

Difference: GA outperformed by +7 ... (GA +10.3 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Bainbridge GA 43, Lincoln FL 33 ... (GA +10)

Team Ratings: Bainbridge: 36.3 ; Lincoln: 35.5 ... (GA +0.8)

Difference: GA outperformed by +9.2 ... (GA +19.5 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cambridge Christian FL 35, Twiggs Co. GA 8 ... (GA -27)

Team Ratings: Cambridge Christian: 16 ; Twiggs Co.: -28.7 ... (GA -44.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +17.7 ... (GA +37.2 , 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Bainbridge GA 51, Sarasota FL 0 ... (GA +51)

Team Ratings: Bainbridge: 36.3 ; Sarasota: 22.6 ... (GA +13.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +37.3 ... (GA +74.5 , 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 74, Broward International FL 0 ... (GA +74)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Broward Int.: -2.2 ... (GA +63)

Difference: GA outperformed by +11 ... (GA +85.5 , 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Rickards FL 41, Bainbridge GA 27 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Rickards: 33.8 ; Bainbridge: 36.3 ... (GA +2.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -16.5 ... (GA +69 , 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Ware Co. GA 27, East Lake FL 9 ... (GA +18)

Team Ratings: Ware Co.: 33.7 ; East Lake: 32.5 ... (GA +1.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +16.8 ... (GA +85.8 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Miller Co. GA 27, Sneads FL 20 ... (GA +7)

Team Ratings: Miller Co.: 0.1 ; Sneads: -26.3 ... (GA +26.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -19.4 ... (GA +66.4 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Thomasville GA 49, Chiles FL 12 ... (GA +37)

Team Ratings: Thomasville: 38.6 ; Chiles: 26.3 ... (GA +12.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +24.7 ... (GA +91.1 , 12 games vs FL)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Louisiana: (GA outperformed by +2.1 points in 1 game vs LA)

OOS Result: Grayson GA 22, John Curtis LA 9 ... (GA +13)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; John Curtis: 49.9 ... (GA +10.9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +2.1 ... (GA +2.1 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

(Total from AL-to-LA ... +69.8 points , in 29 games = +2.41 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

vs North Carolina: GA underperformed by -2.6 points in 5 games vs NC (granted these were all crappy teams)

OOS Result: Towns Co. GA 38, Hayesville NC 21 ... (GA +17)

Team Ratings: Towns Co.: -4.3 ; Hayesville: -28.3 ... (GA +24)

Difference: GA underperformed by -7 ... (GA -7 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Union Co. GA 60, Hayesville NC 7 ... (GA +53)

Team Ratings: Union Co.: 1.2 ; Hayesville: -28.3 ... (GA +29.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +23.5 ... (GA +16.5 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Union Co. GA 42, Andrews NC 28 ... (GA +14)

Team Ratings: Union Co.: 1.2 ; Andrews: -32.9 ... (GA +34.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -20.1 ... (GA -3.6 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Fannin Co. GA 26, Andrews NC 0 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Fannin Co.: -12.5 ; Andrews: -32.9 ... (GA +20.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.6 ... (GA +2 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Murphy NC 48, Gilmer GA 0 ... (GA -48)

Team Ratings: Murphy: 14.5 ; Gilmer: -28.9 ... (GA -43.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.6 ... (GA -2.6 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs South Carolina: (GA underperforms by -3.2 points in 11 games)

OOS Result: North Augusta SC 37, Lakeside (Evans) GA 0 ... (GA -37)

Team Ratings: North Augusta: 36.5 ; Lakeside: 11 ... (GA -25.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -11.5 ... (GA -11.5 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Screven Co. GA 45, Bluffton SC 20 ... (GA +25)

Team Ratings: Screven Co.: 37.2 ; Bluffton: 11.7 ... (GA +25.5)

Difference: GA underperforms by -0.5 ... (GA -12 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cross Creek GA 33, Fox Creek SC 14 ... (GA +19)

Team Ratings: Cross Creek: -12.7 ; Fox Creek: -3.7 ... (GA -9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +28 ... (GA +16 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Lincoln Co. GA 41, McCormick SC 8 ... (GA +33)

Team Ratings: Lincoln Co.: 17.6 ; McCormick: -13.7 ... (GA +31.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +1.7 ... (GA +17.7 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: North Augusta SC 35, Evans GA 23 ... (GA -12)

Team Ratings: North Augusta: 36.5 ; Evans: 34.8 ... (GA -1.7)

Difference: GA underperformed by -10.3 ... (GA +7.4 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Richmond Co. GA 33, Aiken SC 25 ... (GA +8)

Team Ratings: Richmond Co.: 5.5 ; Aiken: -12.9 ... (GA +18.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -10.4 ... (GA -3 , 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Screven Co. GA 48, Wade Hampton SC 13 ... (GA +35)

Team Ratings: Screven Co.: 37.2 ; Wade Hampton: 8.1 ... (GA +29.1)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.9 ... (GA +2.9 , 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Spartanburg SC 39, Etowah GA 25 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Spartanburg: 37.9 ; Etowah: 34.9 ... (GA -3)

Difference: GA underperforms by -11 ... (GA -8.1 , 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Westside (Anderson) SC 30, Hart Co. GA 7 ... (GA -23)

Team Ratings: Westside: 26.5 ; Hart Co.: 8.4 ... (GA -18.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.9 ... (GA -13 , 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Abbeville SC 28, Lincoln Co. GA 14 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Abbeville: 37 ; Lincoln Co.: 17.6 ... (GA -19.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA -7.6 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: South Pointe SC 33, Buford GA 27 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: South Pointe: 64.7 ; Buford: 54.3 ... (GA -10.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +4.4 ... (GA -3.2 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Tennessee: (GA outperformed by +49.7 points in 3 games vs TN)

OOS Result: ELCA GA 55, Knoxville Catholic TN 10 ... (GA +45)

Team Ratings: ELCA: 57.3 ; Knoxville Catholic: 46.8 ... (GA +10.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +34.5 ... (GA +34.5 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Marist GA 31, Baylor TN 6 ... (GA +25)

Team Ratings: Marist: 52.7 ; Baylor: 31.1 ... (GA +21.6)

Difference: GA outperformed by +3.4 ... (GA +37.9 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Blessed Trinity GA 45, McCallie TN 19 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Blessed Trinity: 58.9 ; McCallie: 44.7 ... (GA +14.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +11.8 ... (GA +49.7 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Virginia: (GA outperformed by +17.7 points in 1 game vs VA

OOS Result: Colquitt Co. GA 38, Bishop Sullivan VA 7 ... (GA +31)

Team Ratings: Colquitt Co.: 63 ; Bishop Sullivan: 49.7 ... (GA +13.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +17.7 ... (GA +17.7 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

[ECHS05]

That whole post summed up in 1 sentence... Georgia teams outperformed (aka outscored) their CalPreps Team Ratings by +2.68 PPG in OOS games in 2017.

That means GA still isnt scaled high enough on average.

But is a vast improvement over the last few years when it was +7 to +8 or more... 

Obviously, GA performed well vs states that were scaled too high, and not as well vs states that are scaled too low.... But this only tells how those other states are scaled in comparison to GA... Not compared to rest of the nation or the states they each played.

Im going to do other states and see how they did... And see how well CalPreps had other states scaled...

You can do just Classes or Divisions within States if you wanted to... You just have to make sure and include every team. 

A few states Im very interested in seeing... Ohio, SoCal, NorCal, Florida, Texas, New Jersey, and a few others... Im going to start with Ohio... 

[ECHS05]

What does this mean: If Georgia teams' Ratings were adjusted up +2.68 points per team on average... Georgias scale on the national level would be closer to correct (although that doesnt mean itd be perfect... Because those other states would need to be found out and adjusted too)

[Ararar]

It would seem impossible to be exact on any given state in any given year because you can’t know how good/bad that state will be in a particular year.Its Good information 

 

p.s. you have to much free time 

[TheBlockIsHot]

This is nothing short of an attempt to justify GA being ranked with the big dog states like CA, FL, and Texas.

GA is 4th tier, if they are lucky. Stop trying to justify them being any higher.

You are a joke!

The fact that you had this much time to do this, tells me a few things: 1. You are a loser 2. You are OBSESSED with GA football. 3. You are a loser. 

[hardhit1]

ECHS05

nice work I guess

but how does that work when a state does not play many/any OOS games?

i believe you always said they were ok rating within each state and  could not accurately do a rating on a national scale

are you giving in or just to much free time like Ararar stated?😀

[Eddyr2]

Way too many words to read...

let me guess the thesis...”CalPreps sucks and GA is great”...please confirm so I can save 20 minutes of reading...thanks!

[ECHS05]

48 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

ECHS05

nice work I guess

but how does that work when a state does not play many/any OOS games?

i believe you always said they were ok rating within each state and  could not accurately do a rating on a national scale

are you giving in or just to much free time like Ararar stated?😀

Not giving in at all... Just wanted to see how Georgia in 2017 stacked up with other years now that Ned put more emphasis on State Scaling. (Either that, or just just explained it and did nothing).

National rating will never be perfect because theres simply not enough connecting OOS games, nor will there ever be only having 10-15 game seasons where most teams only play in-state teams and even the teams that do play OOS only play 1 or 2.

Each state is only connected to a handful of other states. Sure if Alabama played OOS vs a state Georgia did not play... Theres some indirect linkage, but that wouldnt be enough to move the needle at all.

Nationally, itll always be bad. State-wise, its OK. Class-wise this method could be pretty good because theres a lot of connectivity, for example... 7As in GA play a lot of other 7As... So theres a good bit of data there. 

Any way... Im going to do a few more states... This shizz does take a good bit of time though, so 1 state a day max.

[ECHS05]

48 minutes ago, Eddyr2 said:

Way too many words to read...

let me guess the thesis...”CalPreps sucks and GA is great”...please confirm so I can save 20 minutes of reading...thanks!

I dont believe youve heard anyone say that, or complain that I said that. 

[ECHS05]

54 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

ECHS05

nice work I guess

but how does that work when a state does not play many/any OOS games?

i believe you always said they were ok rating within each state and  could not accurately do a rating on a national scale

are you giving in or just to much free time like Ararar stated?😀

It doesnt really work if a state doesnt play many/any OOS games. The guy that inputs the data is left to *guess* where that particular state stands in relation to another... And thats either going to hamper that state by giving them a ceiling, or give them a boost they dont deserve granting a higher ceiling than others.

Its another reason why the CP National rankings are so unreliable.

But really, the State rankings are atleast good enough to reference. Hell, maybe 2A or 4A or whatever(just an example), might be too high in GA or something... But theres still enough data to make it respectable. Again, Class rankings even more respectable. And region rankings (like GA Class 7A-Region 1), even more so... You can take those to the bank most years.

[RedZone]

2 hours ago, ECHS05 said:

Over the years Ive done this with CalPreps to show its lack of state scaling, as its truly the best and really the only way to actually see state scaling.

Not using CalPreps' PAM... Im using CPs actual Team Ratings... 

Heres the process.... I post game results(scores) from 1 specific state vs all their OOS opponents, and show each teams Rating difference compared to their opponent to see how they did in their OOS game as far as outperforming or underperforming in relation to their ratings.... This is really the only way State Scaling can be achieved without bias. If you dont use this...  Then the only other way is just manually scale the states where you want them, and obviously this creates bias...

Im going to do Georgia 1st... Then I'll do some other states...

It only works if you look at all of the OOS games for a specific state though.... (Also to better scale the Divisions/Classes vs each other within a state.. You can do this same thing for instate games... Like do GA 7A vs 6A and see which of them underperformed or ourperformed compared to their ratings...and youll get an idea if smaller classes are ranked too high or low as compared to larger classes)

Obviously this is for the 2017 season...

And BTW ----! Better State Scaling = More Accurate National Rankings... Thats the entire point!!!

 

Georgia: (For GA, I only use GHSA teams, aka 1A-7A... Because GHSA and GISA dont play each other so those are 2 seperate scales anyway).. And nobody gives 2 shits about the GISA...

Here are the Overall Totals I came up with if you dont want to look at every single game: (You can check State-by-State results below)

******************************************

Total GHSA(1A-7A)OOS Games: 49

Total Points: +131.4

Performance Average: Outperformed by +2.68 PPG (Meaning GA teams outperformed, or outscored, their Team Ratings by an average of 2.68 PPG vs OOS teams)

******************************************

**Obviously GA did better vs some states & worse vs others... The ones they did well against, means those states are probably scaled too high, and the ones GA did poorly against, probably means those states are scaled too low**

Looking at these numbers above ... Compared to most years, 2017 was an improvement for CalPreps as far as ranking GA teams... It use to be +8 or more points every year GA was underrated by... But here you can see it was only +2.68 ppg this season.

 

 

vs Alabama: (GA underperformed by -15.1 points in 14 games vs AL)

OOS Result: Abbeville AL 24, Randolph-Clay GA 18 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: Abbeville: -13.3 ; Randolph-Clay: -24.7 ... (GA -11.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA +5.4, 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cedartown GA 41, Cherokee Co. AL 14 ... (GA +27)

Team Ratings: Cedartown: 39.4 ; Cherokee Co.: 5.9 ... (GA +33.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -6.5 ... (GA -1.1, 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Darlington GA 50, Gaston AL 0 ... (GA +50)

Team Ratings: Darlington: 16.5 ; Gaston: -46.1 ... (GA +62.6)

Difference: GA underperformed by -12.6 ... (GA -13.7, 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Eufaula AL 42, Early Co. GA 20 ... (GA -22)

Team Ratings: Eufaula: 18.2 ; Early Co.: -1.2 ... (GA -19.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -2.6 ... (GA -16.3, 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Fort Payne AL 30, Chattooga GA 28 ... (GA -2)

Team Ratings: Fort Payne: 13.1 ; Chattooga: 1.6 ... (GA -11.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +9.5 ... (GA -6.8, 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 35, Hoover AL 26 ... (GA +9)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Hoover: 65.7 ... (GA -4.9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +13.9 ... (GA +7.1, 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Mt. Zion GA 43, Ranburne AL 14 ... (GA +29)

Team Ratings: Mt. Zion: 24.7 ; Ranburne: -13.4 ... (GA +38.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.1 ... (GA -2, 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: North Sand Mountain AL 28, Dade Co. GA 27 ... (GA -1)

Team Ratings: NSM: -4.3 ; Dade Co.: -8.5 ... (GA -4.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +3.2 ... (GA +1.2, 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Rockmart GA 36, Piedmont AL 22 ... (GA +14)

Team Ratings: Rockmart: 21.5 ; Piedmont: 17.8 ... (GA +3.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +10.3 ... (GA +11.5, 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Thompson AL 21, Hapeville Charter GA 20 ... (GA -1)

Team Ratings: Thompson: 59.2 ; Hapeville Charter: 52.8 ... (GA -6.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA +16.9 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Saraland AL 17, Heard Co. GA 14 ... (GA -3)

Team Ratings: Saraland: 29.3 ; Heard Co.: 35.4 ... (GA +6.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.1 ... (GA +7.8 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Callaway GA 35, Handley AL 0 ... (GA +35)

Team Ratings: Callaway: 29.1 ; Handley: -10.8 ... (GA +39.9)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.9 ... (GA +2.9 , 12 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 42, Ramsay AL 16 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Ramsay: 30.2 ... (GA +30.6)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.6 ... (GA -1.7 , 13 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Dothan AL 29, Early Co. GA 20 ... (GA -9)

Team Ratings: Dothan: -5.6 ; Early Co.: -1.2 ... (GA +4.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -13.4 ... (GA -15.1 , 14 games vs AL)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs California: (GA outperformed by +1.5 points in 1 game vs. CA)

OOS Result: Colquitt Co. GA 26, Vista Murrieta CA 7 ... (GA +19)

Team Ratings: Colquitt Co.: 63 ; Vista Murrieta: 45.5 ... (GA +17.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +1.5 ... (GA +1.5, 1 game vs CA)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Colorado: (GA underperformed by -9.8 points in 1 game vs CO)

OOS Result: Valor Christian CO 28, Greater Atl. Christian GA 22 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: Valor Christian: 42.1 ; Greater Atl. Christian: 45.9 ... (GA +3.8)

Difference: GA underperformed by -9.8 ... (GA -9.8, 1 game vs CO)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Florida: (GA outperformed by +91.1 points in 12 games vs Florida)

OOS Result: Camden Co. GA 19, Oakleaf FL 6 ... (GA +13)

Team Ratings: Camden Co.: 33.3 ; Oakleaf: 20.9 ... (GA +12.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +0.6 ... (GA +0.6, 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Buford GA 34, Melbourne Central Catholic FL 17 ... (GA +17)

Team Ratings: Buford: 54.3 ; MCC : 37.2 ... (GA +17.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -0.1 ... (GA +0.5 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Lowndes GA 56, Broward International FL 0 ... (GA +56)

Team Ratings: Lowndes: 61 ; Broward Int.: -2.2 ... (GA +63.2)

Difference: NOT COUNTING THIS GAME BECAUSE IT WAS CALLED 3 MINUTES INTO THE 3RD QUARTER AT 56-0

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Venice FL 35, Camden Co. GA 3 ... (GA -32)

Team Ratings: Venice: 68.1 ; Camden Co.: 33.3 ... (GA -34.8)

Difference: GA outperformed by +2.8 ... (GA +3.3 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cartersville GA 52, Bartram Trail FL 45 ... (GA +7)

Team Ratings: Cartersville: 57.3 ; Bartram Trail: 57.3 ... (GA +-0)

Difference: GA outperformed by +7 ... (GA +10.3 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Bainbridge GA 43, Lincoln FL 33 ... (GA +10)

Team Ratings: Bainbridge: 36.3 ; Lincoln: 35.5 ... (GA +0.8)

Difference: GA outperformed by +9.2 ... (GA +19.5 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cambridge Christian FL 35, Twiggs Co. GA 8 ... (GA -27)

Team Ratings: Cambridge Christian: 16 ; Twiggs Co.: -28.7 ... (GA -44.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +17.7 ... (GA +37.2 , 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Bainbridge GA 51, Sarasota FL 0 ... (GA +51)

Team Ratings: Bainbridge: 36.3 ; Sarasota: 22.6 ... (GA +13.7)

Difference: GA outperformed by +37.3 ... (GA +74.5 , 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Grayson GA 74, Broward International FL 0 ... (GA +74)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; Broward Int.: -2.2 ... (GA +63)

Difference: GA outperformed by +11 ... (GA +85.5 , 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Rickards FL 41, Bainbridge GA 27 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Rickards: 33.8 ; Bainbridge: 36.3 ... (GA +2.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -16.5 ... (GA +69 , 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Ware Co. GA 27, East Lake FL 9 ... (GA +18)

Team Ratings: Ware Co.: 33.7 ; East Lake: 32.5 ... (GA +1.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +16.8 ... (GA +85.8 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Miller Co. GA 27, Sneads FL 20 ... (GA +7)

Team Ratings: Miller Co.: 0.1 ; Sneads: -26.3 ... (GA +26.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -19.4 ... (GA +66.4 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Thomasville GA 49, Chiles FL 12 ... (GA +37)

Team Ratings: Thomasville: 38.6 ; Chiles: 26.3 ... (GA +12.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +24.7 ... (GA +91.1 , 12 games vs FL)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Louisiana: (GA outperformed by +2.1 points in 1 game vs LA)

OOS Result: Grayson GA 22, John Curtis LA 9 ... (GA +13)

Team Ratings: Grayson: 60.8 ; John Curtis: 49.9 ... (GA +10.9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +2.1 ... (GA +2.1 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

(Total from AL-to-LA ... +69.8 points , in 29 games = +2.41 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

vs North Carolina: GA underperformed by -2.6 points in 5 games vs NC (granted these were all crappy teams)

OOS Result: Towns Co. GA 38, Hayesville NC 21 ... (GA +17)

Team Ratings: Towns Co.: -4.3 ; Hayesville: -28.3 ... (GA +24)

Difference: GA underperformed by -7 ... (GA -7 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Union Co. GA 60, Hayesville NC 7 ... (GA +53)

Team Ratings: Union Co.: 1.2 ; Hayesville: -28.3 ... (GA +29.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +23.5 ... (GA +16.5 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Union Co. GA 42, Andrews NC 28 ... (GA +14)

Team Ratings: Union Co.: 1.2 ; Andrews: -32.9 ... (GA +34.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -20.1 ... (GA -3.6 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Fannin Co. GA 26, Andrews NC 0 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Fannin Co.: -12.5 ; Andrews: -32.9 ... (GA +20.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.6 ... (GA +2 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Murphy NC 48, Gilmer GA 0 ... (GA -48)

Team Ratings: Murphy: 14.5 ; Gilmer: -28.9 ... (GA -43.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.6 ... (GA -2.6 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs South Carolina: (GA underperforms by -3.2 points in 11 games)

OOS Result: North Augusta SC 37, Lakeside (Evans) GA 0 ... (GA -37)

Team Ratings: North Augusta: 36.5 ; Lakeside: 11 ... (GA -25.5)

Difference: GA underperformed by -11.5 ... (GA -11.5 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Screven Co. GA 45, Bluffton SC 20 ... (GA +25)

Team Ratings: Screven Co.: 37.2 ; Bluffton: 11.7 ... (GA +25.5)

Difference: GA underperforms by -0.5 ... (GA -12 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Cross Creek GA 33, Fox Creek SC 14 ... (GA +19)

Team Ratings: Cross Creek: -12.7 ; Fox Creek: -3.7 ... (GA -9)

Difference: GA outperformed by +28 ... (GA +16 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Lincoln Co. GA 41, McCormick SC 8 ... (GA +33)

Team Ratings: Lincoln Co.: 17.6 ; McCormick: -13.7 ... (GA +31.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +1.7 ... (GA +17.7 , 4 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: North Augusta SC 35, Evans GA 23 ... (GA -12)

Team Ratings: North Augusta: 36.5 ; Evans: 34.8 ... (GA -1.7)

Difference: GA underperformed by -10.3 ... (GA +7.4 , 5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Richmond Co. GA 33, Aiken SC 25 ... (GA +8)

Team Ratings: Richmond Co.: 5.5 ; Aiken: -12.9 ... (GA +18.4)

Difference: GA underperformed by -10.4 ... (GA -3 , 6 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Screven Co. GA 48, Wade Hampton SC 13 ... (GA +35)

Team Ratings: Screven Co.: 37.2 ; Wade Hampton: 8.1 ... (GA +29.1)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.9 ... (GA +2.9 , 7 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Spartanburg SC 39, Etowah GA 25 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Spartanburg: 37.9 ; Etowah: 34.9 ... (GA -3)

Difference: GA underperforms by -11 ... (GA -8.1 , 8 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Westside (Anderson) SC 30, Hart Co. GA 7 ... (GA -23)

Team Ratings: Westside: 26.5 ; Hart Co.: 8.4 ... (GA -18.1)

Difference: GA underperformed by -4.9 ... (GA -13 , 9 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Abbeville SC 28, Lincoln Co. GA 14 ... (GA -14)

Team Ratings: Abbeville: 37 ; Lincoln Co.: 17.6 ... (GA -19.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +5.4 ... (GA -7.6 , 10 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: South Pointe SC 33, Buford GA 27 ... (GA -6)

Team Ratings: South Pointe: 64.7 ; Buford: 54.3 ... (GA -10.4)

Difference: GA outperformed by +4.4 ... (GA -3.2 , 11 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Tennessee: (GA outperformed by +49.7 points in 3 games vs TN)

OOS Result: ELCA GA 55, Knoxville Catholic TN 10 ... (GA +45)

Team Ratings: ELCA: 57.3 ; Knoxville Catholic: 46.8 ... (GA +10.5)

Difference: GA outperformed by +34.5 ... (GA +34.5 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Marist GA 31, Baylor TN 6 ... (GA +25)

Team Ratings: Marist: 52.7 ; Baylor: 31.1 ... (GA +21.6)

Difference: GA outperformed by +3.4 ... (GA +37.9 , 2 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

OOS Result: Blessed Trinity GA 45, McCallie TN 19 ... (GA +26)

Team Ratings: Blessed Trinity: 58.9 ; McCallie: 44.7 ... (GA +14.2)

Difference: GA outperformed by +11.8 ... (GA +49.7 , 3 games)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

vs Virginia: (GA outperformed by +17.7 points in 1 game vs VA

OOS Result: Colquitt Co. GA 38, Bishop Sullivan VA 7 ... (GA +31)

Team Ratings: Colquitt Co.: 63 ; Bishop Sullivan: 49.7 ... (GA +13.3)

Difference: GA outperformed by +17.7 ... (GA +17.7 , 1 game)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

Team ratings mean nothing at calpreps especially trying to use them like you are....don't want to bust your bubble or spoil hours of work though.

Carry on.

 

[hardhit1]

14 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

It doesnt really work if a state doesnt play many/any OOS games. The guy that inputs the data is left to *guess* where that particular state stands in relation to another... And thats either going to hamper that state by giving them a ceiling, or give them a boost they dont deserve granting a higher ceiling than others.

Its another reason why the CP National rankings are so unreliable.

But really, the State rankings are atleast good enough to reference. Hell, maybe 2A or 4A or whatever(just an example), might be too high in GA or something... But theres still enough data to make it respectable. Again, Class rankings even more respectable. And region rankings (like GA Class 7A-Region 1), even more so... You can take those to the bank most years.

I like them as a reference pointing the past games results 

they are not telling me who's winning the next game 

they never have and I NEVER lost to that damn computer 😀

[ECHS05]

1 hour ago, RedZone said:

Team ratings mean nothing at calpreps especially trying to use them like you are....don't want to bust your bubble or spoil hours of work though.

Carry on.

 

Actually it means exactly this.

A team with a 40 rating is suppose to be 40 points better than a team with a 0 rating. 

Im comparing actual scores to ratings...

Hate to "burst" your bubble... But this is the ONLY way it works.  Its either you are clueless, or you are regurgitating what a couple people use to say about using CPs PAM to do this (which is right about the PAM)... But not the ratings. A team with a 1 rating is 1 point better than a team with a 0 rating, and so on. This is THE way to do state scaling and its the way Ned "tries" to do it.

Perhaps youd like to keep going with this? Id like a chance to school you as well.

[ECHS05]

Just for you Caj... Heres a direct Ned quote about State Scaling... "say for example that a state has played 30 out-of-state games and averaged winning those games by 2.5 points more than the ratings would suggest (discarding blowouts).  That state simply then gets a +2.5 point bump in terms of where they slot in against the rest of the teams in the country"

Now tuck your tail between your legs, and trot home.

The irony of some random hillbilly guy like Caj, telling ME what does and doesnt work with CP after years of me working with it... Figure out how a door knob works first please.

[ATLien12x]

It’s 2018 and you’re still doing this shit 😂 never change E, never change. 

[ECHS05]

16 minutes ago, ATLien12x said:

It’s 2018 and you’re still doing this shit 😂 never change E, never change. 

Its 2018 and were still trying to figure out a lot about the Pyramid of Giza & The Sacsayhuaman Walls too...

Just like how some people today still believe the Earth is flat, even a couple thousand years after the Greeks figured out it was round...

Just like that, there are still some out there that believe CP a reliable source for National Rankings... Im here to show them they are the Flat Earthers of the HSFB Ranking world.

[hardhit1]

8 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Its 2018 and were still trying to figure out a lot about the Pyramid of Giza & The Sacsayhuaman Walls too...

Just like how some people today still believe the Earth is flat, even a couple thousand years after the Greeks figured out it was round...

Just like that, there are still some out there that believe CP a reliable source for National Rankings... Im here to show them they are the Flat Earthers of the HSFB Ranking world.

Nice come back! 😆

[RedZone]

8 hours ago, ECHS05 said:

Just for you Caj... Heres a direct Ned quote about State Scaling... "say for example that a state has played 30 out-of-state games and averaged winning those games by 2.5 points more than the ratings would suggest (discarding blowouts).  That state simply then gets a +2.5 point bump in terms of where they slot in against the rest of the teams in the country"

Now tuck your tail between your legs, and trot home.

The irony of some random hillbilly guy like Caj, telling ME what does and doesnt work with CP after years of me working with it... Figure out how a door knob works first please.

There is a reason extremely dumb people don't go to college.

They take, your route.

And, people know why you did this BS yet again. 

[ECHS05]

5 minutes ago, RedZone said:

There is a reason extremely dumb people don't go to college.

They take, your route.

And, people know why you did this BS yet again. 

Oh, extremely dumb people go to college too.

Nice reasoning though Caj your original thought was explained so clear and thorough.

[RedZone]

2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Oh, extremely dumb people go to college too.

Nice reasoning though Caj your original thought was explained so clear and thorough.

Dude, we figured calpreps out when you were still shittin in pampers and trying to say mommaaa!

 

[RedZone]

6 hours ago, ATLien12x said:

It’s 2018 and you’re still doing this shit 😂 never change E, never change. 

5 hours of his life gone. 

[ECHS05]

21 minutes ago, RedZone said:

Dude, we figured calpreps out when you were still shittin in pampers and trying to say mommaaa!

 

The only thing you figured out was how to use the big boy potty at 17.

[ECHS05]

Caj still doesnt know what CalPreps means or how it works, he just wants to insert himself in the thread for attention.

BTW Peeps, Ohio is in the works.

[Omaha Vol]

Are you using the ratings each team had when they played or the ratings each team had at the end of the year? 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

1 hour ago, RedZone said:

There is a reason extremely dumb people don't go to college.

They take, your route.

And, people know why you did this BS yet again. 

How's. That. Shitty. Blog. Coming. Along?

Asking. For. A. Friend. Who. I. Barely. Like.