ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Omaha Vol said: Are you using the ratings each team had when they played or the ratings each team had at the end of the year? End of the year, the ratings they had when they played wouldnt matter at all. You compare how they did all year/end of year VS how they did against the OOS team. Like... In a perfect world and system (which is impossible)... If 2 states were scaled perfectly, then the difference in their end of year ratings would match the MoV of their game played. Obviously thats impossible, so you find the difference of ALL OOS games played between the 2 states and adjust scales according to the outcome. An example, a microcosm atleast.... If a Tennessee team performed to an average of a 40 rating vs instate teams over the course of the season...but got a 60 Performance rating in their OOS game vs a Kentucky team, then Kentucky is probably scaled too high and Tennessee too low in comparison to each other. Obviously 1 game is too small of a sample to determine that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Caj still doesnt know what CalPreps means or how it works, he just wants to insert himself in the thread for attention. BTW Peeps, Ohio is in the works. Who is Caj? And why Caj? Is it an acronym for c*nt and jack-off? Is that even possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: End of the year, the ratings they had when they played wouldnt matter at all. You compare how they did all year/end of year VS how they did against the OOS team. Like... In a perfect world and system (which is impossible)... If 2 states were scaled perfectly, then the difference in their end of year ratings would match the MoV of their game played. Obviously thats impossible, so you find the difference of ALL OOS games played between the 2 states and adjust scales according to the outcome. So... in short this is for determining final rankings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 @Omaha Vol An example, a microcosm atleast.... If a Tennessee team performed to an average of a 40 rating vs instate teams over the course of the season...but got a 60 Performance rating in their OOS game vs a Kentucky team, then Kentucky is probably scaled too high and Tennessee too low in comparison to each other. Obviously 1 game is too small of a sample to determine that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said: Who is Caj? And why Caj? Is it an acronym for c*nt and jack-off? Is that even possible? His original name is Cajun-something something... Or TheCajun.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: His original name is Cajun-something something... Or TheCajun.. Wonder how his blog is doing, I bet it's endorsed by all the governing bodies in HS football, judging by the expert analysis here and astute political commentary on the off topic board. Wonder if Caj is doing autographs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Im about halftime done with Ohio... Its fairly time consuming. Texas will be next... I dont think itll take that long to do them. SoCal is after... When I do California, Im going to split SoCal and NorCal. Mainly because theres not a TON of play between the 2 in the regular season, so they each have their own scales essentially. SoCal mainly plays other SoCal teams, and NorCal mainly plays other NorCal team... So they'll be scaled mostly to themselves and not that much with each other. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 For giggles > because the calpreps debate ended in 2003. UHigh (Baton Rouge) 65.5 calpreps Grayson, GA 60.8 calpreps Who should win this game, worm farmer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, RedZone said: For giggles > because the calpreps debate ended in 2003. UHigh (Baton Rouge) 65.5 calpreps Grayson, GA 60.8 calpreps Who should win this game, worm farmer? Going by that... CP is saying UHigh is 4.7 points better than Grayson. Of course, the whole reason Im doing this is so we can see if States are scaled too high or low in comparison to the others... Georgias OOS performances say their teams are scaled 2.69 points too low ON AVERAGE. Grayson could receive a 2.69 point bump. But wed also need to do LA, and find their scale according to their OOS performances to make it more accurate, and adjust their teams. Doing this doesnt mean we are perfecting their scale, but its a step in the right direction in making sure these states are being treated fairly and others not receiving biased rating/ceiling advantages. At this point, Im honestly trying to help... Because I believe Neds model has a lot of potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Going by that... CP is saying UHigh is 4.7 points better than Grayson. . YOU say that...calpreps just has a team rating that doesn't mean SHIT. Keep wasting your entore life playing around with this crap. calpreps says: [2017] Grayson (Loganville, GA) 31, [2017] University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Massey uses a 2 year rolling data point correlation in his attempt to scale states for his Massey Ratings (USA Today computer poll) as he was concerned of not enough OOS games in one year for many states. Not sure what Freeman is doing after his latest 2017 correction (which adjusted prior years). He certainly is now reviewing the annual results of OOS play and I can’t think of another way than what Echs is doing and frankly I’m interested to see his results as this is likely what Freeman has done too (or will do). Echs, do me a favor and add Arkansas. Question, when Freeman starts projecting score differentials from the first week’s games past Oct 1 and giving his site a W-L performance %, how is he (or is he) adding a home field advantage? In the hypotheticals for example, it will state neutral site. If we were to amuse ourselves with that entertainment novelty for a hypothetical game, how would we gauge for home field or home state (if neutral but one school’s home state)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 18 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Georgia: (For GA, I only use GHSA teams, aka 1A-7A... Because GHSA and GISA dont play each other so those are 2 seperate scales anyway).. And nobody gives 2 shits about the GISA... Does Ned see Georgia this way or is his state scale using all available data concerning HS football? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Colquitt is rated 3 points higher at calpreps than Grayson and Grayson whoops them too....that's in GA Yeah, that calpreps team rating stuff is dead-eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 A lot of the stuff is nonsense because looking at the numbers the majority of the information collected is from meaningless garbage games and how bad a team blows another team out. Grayson gets plus-12 in the outperformance for beating ISB 74-0 instead of 62-0?? Lol ok I don't think Calpreps even projects past 62-0. I think Georgia would be scaled accordingly if they played better out-of-state teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 UHigh 65.5 Lee County, GA 60.3 neutral field [2017] Lee County (Leesburg, GA) 28, [2017] University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) 26 calpreps is much like this forum > for kids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Im about halftime done with Ohio... Its fairly time consuming. Texas will be next... I dont think itll take that long to do them. SoCal is after... When I do California, Im going to split SoCal and NorCal. Mainly because theres not a TON of play between the 2 in the regular season, so they each have their own scales essentially. SoCal mainly plays other SoCal teams, and NorCal mainly plays other NorCal team... So they'll be scaled mostly to themselves and not that much with each other. Let me know when you get to FL I just hope all the mismatches we take don't destory our ranking Btw i think you missed a few games in FL vs GA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Nolebull813 said: A lot of the stuff is nonsense because looking at the numbers the majority of the information collected is from meaningless garbage games and how bad a team blows another team out. Grayson gets plus-12 in the outperformance for beating ISB 74-0 instead of 62-0?? Lol ok I don't think Calpreps even projects past 62-0. I think Georgia would be scaled accordingly if they played better out-of-state teams Isb is a independent so if he is counting them against Florida then he needs to count ALL FL vs GA games not just the ones in classifications Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Columbiafan said: Isb is a independent so if he is counting them against Florida then he needs to count ALL FL vs GA games not just the ones in classifications Yeah and Cal preps adds in the independent teams from Georgia as well. So if they are crapping the bed then they could be bringing down the whole state. There is too much incomplete data to come up with an accurate solution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddyr2 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 BTW MD “outperformed” almost every game last year according to CalPreps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, RedZone said: UHigh 65.5 Lee County, GA 60.3 neutral field [2017] Lee County (Leesburg, GA) 28, [2017] University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) 26 calpreps is much like this forum > for kids How’s the Adult blog coming along? Crickets.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, RedZone said: YOU say that...calpreps just has a team rating that doesn't mean SHIT. Keep wasting your entore life playing around with this crap. calpreps says: [2017] Grayson (Loganville, GA) 31, [2017] University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) 22 What doesnt mean shit is the PAM (Predict-A-Matchup) that you are using. Thats for entertainment only. The actual ratings are what matter. Just stop before you get too deep to turn back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Nolebull813 said: Yeah and Cal preps adds in the independent teams from Georgia as well. So if they are crapping the bed then they could be bringing down the whole state. There is too much incomplete data to come up with an accurate solution Yeah , CalPreps puts independents and GISA in the Georgia rankings... But that doesnt mean it affects the GHSA scale... BECAUSE THEY DONT PLAY EACH OTHER. Independents/GISA ... And the GHSA.. Are their own entities, just because they are both under the GA tab means nothing. They are their own scales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Nolebull813 said: A lot of the stuff is nonsense because looking at the numbers the majority of the information collected is from meaningless garbage games and how bad a team blows another team out. Grayson gets plus-12 in the outperformance for beating ISB 74-0 instead of 62-0?? Lol ok I don't think Calpreps even projects past 62-0. I think Georgia would be scaled accordingly if they played better out-of-state teams 62-0 is the Predict a matchup. I wish morons like you and Caj didnt come in here and talk without knowing a damn bit of what the thread is actually doing/using. Im using the RATINGS. That 62-0 cap on the PAM means absolutely nothing because Im not using that. Graysons rating is a 60.8... ISBs is a -2.2 ... Thats a 63 point difference... But Grayson won 74-0, so thats a +11... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Columbiafan said: Let me know when you get to FL I just hope all the mismatches we take don't destory our ranking Btw i think you missed a few games in FL vs GA Mismatches mean nothing with what Im doing. A shit team will have a shit rating, and a good team will have a good rating. Mismatches or even games... It doesnt matter. Im not using Predict-A-Matchup for the 70th fucking time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, RedZone said: UHigh 65.5 Lee County, GA 60.3 neutral field [2017] Lee County (Leesburg, GA) 28, [2017] University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) 26 calpreps is much like this forum > for kids Again, this doesnt matter. Im not using CalPreps predict a matchup. Thats for entertainment only. The actual ratings are based on game performances and nothing more. The PAM is an entertainment tool with guesses thrown in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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