Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm curious though @ECHS05 Is there any interesting numbers you noticing so far with your research? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Columbiafan said: So if 0 is average then how is isb only minus 2? You telling me they are almost a average team? Damn I wonder where Suwannee and Columbia rank on those team ratings then after all Suwannee blew isb out just a few years ago and Columbia beat Suwannee without breaking a sweat Well... Ned calls 0 an "average" team... Its really not. But the way CalPreps ratings work... A 65 should be 5 points better than,a 60, and 10 points better than a 55. The ratings are based on an average of a teams combined single game performance ratings... Which are an opponents rating + the margin of victory. What Im doing is exactly right... Not sure why Nolebull and Eddyr2 are wasting time arguing that. Argue about something thats actually up for debate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Well... Ned calls 0 an "average" team... Its really not. But the way CalPreps ratings work... A 65 should be 5 points better than,a 60, and 10 points better than a 55. The ratings are based on an average of a teams combined single game performance ratings... Which are an opponents rating + the margin of victory. What Im doing is exactly right... Not sure why Nolebull and Eddyr2 are wasting time arguing that. Argue about something thats actually up for debate. Kinda sounds like what Joe Pinkos does in Florida He uses power rankings and whenever a team plays another he subtracts the difference in the power rankings to determine who will win and by how many but I'm still not sure what he puts into his power rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 Where can i find specific teams rankings on the calpreps site? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Columbiafan said: So if 0 is average then how is isb only minus 2? You telling me they are almost a average team? Damn I wonder where Suwannee and Columbia rank on those team ratings then after all Suwannee blew isb out just a few years ago and Columbia beat Suwannee without breaking a sweat With ISB... Their tough schedule helped their rating a lot... They also only actually played 7 games, and 4 of them were vs good teams.. Let me explain... ISB played... Lowndes - 61 rating Grayson - 60.8 rating Cocoa,- 57.7 rating Elder - 51.9 rating CalPreps has a cap, that no matter how bad you lose... Your single game performance rating will never be more than 29 points less than your opponents ratings... So their minimum performance rating vs those 4 teams would be... vs Lowndes - ISBs minimum PR would be 32 vs Grayson - ISBs minimum PR would be 31.8 vs Cocoa - ISBs minimum PR would be 28.7 vs Elder - ISBs minimum PR would be 22.9 And like I said, a teams Rating is merely all their performance ratings added up and averaged... Hell .... An example, a team could lose 90-0 for 10 straight weeks during the regular season... But if all 10 teams were Rated as 70s, then that team that lost 90-0 every week would still have an average rating of 41... Because 70-29 = 41... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Columbiafan said: Where can i find specific teams rankings on the calpreps site? What do you mean? They are everywhere... You can go to the Top 1000... Or go to a States site, and look for that team... Do a Ctrl+F and look them up .... You can find a teams ranking everywhere on the site... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddyr2 Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: This is exactly how CalPreps works. What Im doing with the States (doing it with a single team is dumb and pointless) is exactly how Ned would check state scales, to see if they need to be adjusted up or down. And you dont even know what I posted means for Mater Dei, its not necessarily bad. 0 is suppose to be the average team in America... Suppose to be. A 97 means Mater Dei is 97 points better than a team at 0. Predictions do not matter at all when it comes to ratings. You are wrong. Completely and unequivocally. I seriously wish people like you would stop coming on here saying shit like that when they have NO idea what they are talking about, its old. A few of Neds quotes... Read please ***** "When margins are used, the differences in ratings between two teams is roughly a measure of how many points better one team is than another. An 80 should beat a 60 by 20, etc.""" ***** And a little on State Scaling... That adds to the 1st point. """say for example that a state has played 30 out-of-state games and averaged winning those games by 2.5 points more than the ratings would suggest (discarding blowouts). That state simply then gets a +2.5 point bump in terms of where they slot in against the rest of the teams in the country.""" If you want to know exactly what that means with Mater Dei, it means they didnt play to the level of their rating on average all season... Their rating should probably be closer to a 94 or 95... But the playoff bump Ned gives, where MD had performance ratings of 98.4, 106, 99.9... But whatevs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: What do you mean? They are everywhere... You can go to the Top 1000... Or go to a States site, and look for that team... Do a Ctrl+F and look them up .... You can find a teams ranking everywhere on the site... That's what i did to figure it out Columbia was ranked about where I had them in my rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: With ISB... Their tough schedule helped their rating a lot... They also only actually played 7 games, and 4 of them were vs good teams.. Let me explain... ISB played... Lowndes - 61 rating Grayson - 60.8 rating Cocoa,- 57.7 rating Elder - 51.9 rating CalPreps has a cap, that no matter how bad you lose... Your single game performance rating will never be more than 29 points less than your opponents ratings... So their minimum performance rating vs those 4 teams would be... vs Lowndes - ISBs minimum PR would be 32 vs Grayson - ISBs minimum PR would be 31.8 vs Cocoa - ISBs minimum PR would be 28.7 vs Elder - ISBs minimum PR would be 22.9 And like I said, a teams Rating is merely all their performance ratings added up and averaged... Hell .... An example, a team could lose 90-0 for 10 straight weeks during the regular season... But if all 10 teams were Rated as 70s, then that team that lost 90-0 every week would still have an average rating of 41... Because 70-29 = 41... Hmm so losing by 60 or 100 counts for the same? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 9 hours ago, Ararar said: On 3/3/2018 at 3:49 PM, ECHS05 said: Georgia: (For GA, I only use GHSA teams, aka 1A-7A... Because GHSA and GISA dont play each other so those are 2 seperate scales anyway).. And nobody gives 2 shits about the GISA... Does Ned see Georgia this way or is his state scale using all available data concerning HS football? Still waiting for an answer to this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlockIsHot Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 9 hours ago, ECHS05 said: What do you go 99% of the time you are on here? Push Folsom football based on 0 facts and no logic. Pure biased emotion. I pushed nothing. Just posted #s from CP. You actually post Predict-A-Matchups.... With Folsom vs other teams. I do and will continue to push my team now that I see what your goal is on here. You will push GA at all costs, even though everyone can see what you are doing. GA is 4th tier. Get over it and move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 Good informative thread, good line of questioning... No, I'm not talking to the snarky or otherwise unproductive posts. Thanks, Aspiring Asshole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/3/2018 at 3:55 PM, ECHS05 said: That whole post summed up in 1 sentence... Georgia teams outperformed (aka outscored) their CalPreps Team Ratings by +2.68 PPG in OOS games in 2017. That means GA still isnt scaled high enough on average. Or, it means that GA’s top teams scheduled ISB and you didn’t cap MOV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/4/2018 at 5:17 AM, Omaha Vol said: Are you using the ratings each team had when they played or the ratings each team had at the end of the year? Whatever serves his purpose best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, Pops said: Or, it means that GA’s top teams scheduled ISB and you didn’t cap MOV That's what I said. If Georgia played better oos teams their schedules, ratings and rankings would all go up. you can't have every single team in your state's top 10 play a JV team with 20 players and cry that they are all ranked too low. Grayson beating a JV team 74-0 instead of the projected 62-0 is supposed to mean something more I guess 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, Pops said: Whatever serves his purpose best Ouch. Pops, this is likely what Freeman did (or close to it) with regards to his 2017 correction and prior years. His explanation is on the site somewhere. As mentioned prior, Massey was worried about too few OOS interaction games to compile data, so he opted for using a 2 year rolling data point curve to set his scale in place. How Freeman adjusts one year vs past years in his scaling not really sure, but my guess would be he adjusts on the fly now and how the season ended is how it will stay... or perhaps prior to August another correction? Freeman boosted GA up in the past. He’s not done tinkering. What I’d like to see is Echs tally on Arkansas. Also Echs, if you can rewind back to my first post in thread about home field points. Thx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 hours ago, Columbiafan said: Hmm so losing by 60 or 100 counts for the same? In the ratings/rankings yes... Losing by 30 or 500 counts as the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, ECHS05 said: In the ratings/rankings yes... Losing by 30 or 500 counts as the same. That's what i would call a hole in the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 hours ago, Ararar said: Still waiting for an answer to this I dont know the answer to that question honestly. But my data is relevant to the GHSA only because those are the teams I used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 hours ago, golfaddict1 said: Ouch. Pops, this is likely what Freeman did (or close to it) with regards to his 2017 correction and prior years. His explanation is on the site somewhere. As mentioned prior, Massey was worried about too few OOS interaction games to compile data, so he opted for using a 2 year rolling data point curve to set his scale in place. How Freeman adjusts one year vs past years in his scaling not really sure, but my guess would be he adjusts on the fly now and how the season ended is how it will stay... or perhaps prior to August another correction? Freeman boosted GA up in the past. He’s not done tinkering. What I’d like to see is Echs tally on Arkansas. Also Echs, if you can rewind back to my first post in thread about home field points. Thx. Ill do Arkansas... Im still doing Ohio... Each state takes a few hours of work to do... Atleast the ones with 40+ OOS games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 hours ago, Nolebull813 said: That's what I said. If Georgia played better oos teams their schedules, ratings and rankings would all go up. you can't have every single team in your state's top 10 play a JV team with 20 players and cry that they are all ranked too low. Grayson beating a JV team 74-0 instead of the projected 62-0 is supposed to mean something more I guess That Grayson vs ISB game means very little. Now I dont like counting that game, but if I dont use every game its incomplete and incorrect data. Grayson couldve won by a lot more. The point was Grayson is rated +63 points higher than ISB... But they won by 74, so technically that IS outperforming their rating in that particular game. If youll look I did Grayson vs Hoover too, Grayson won by 9... But is rated at 60.8 while Hoover is rated a 65.7... So Grayson gets a +9 on the W, and their were rated 4.9 points lower than Hoover... So Grayson outperformed by 9+4.9 = 13.9 points... Its all relevant. Ill do Florida too, so calm the hell down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wow... Id spent almost 5 hours on Ohio, had gotten over 50 games done... And my phone didnt save it so I lost all of it. Morther-f***. FUCK@@@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: That Grayson vs ISB game means very little. Now I dont like counting that game, but if I dont use every game its incomplete and incorrect data. Grayson couldve won by a lot more. The point was Grayson is rated +63 points higher than ISB... But they won by 74, so technically that IS outperforming their rating in that particular game. If youll look I did Grayson vs Hoover too, Grayson won by 9... But is rated at 60.8 while Hoover is rated a 65.7... So Grayson gets a +9 on the W, and their were rated 4.9 points lower than Hoover... So Grayson outperformed by 9+4.9 = 13.9 points... Its all relevant. Ill do Florida too, so calm the hell down. You said though you don't count independents Well if you counting isb then count img as well They are both independents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 5, 2018 Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ECHS05 said: Wow... Id spent almost 5 hours on Ohio, had gotten over 50 games done... And my phone didnt save it so I lost all of it. Morther-f***. FUCK@@@ 😬😬😬😬 That sucks!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted March 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2018 I guess Ill do Arkansas, just for you golf.... Cause Im not going back and doing Ohio again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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