USA Today final Expert rankings - Jim Halley (non algorithm)

[golfaddict1]

http://usatodayhss.com/rankings/expert/boys/football/2016/20

http://usatodayhss.com/2016/bishop-gorman-finishes-season-as-no-1-team-for-third-consecutive-season#undefined.uxfs

 

[AztecPadre]

Well they never seem to not surprise me with some of their choices. 

[golfaddict1]

1 minute ago, AztecPadre said:

Well they never seem to not surprise me with some of their choices. 

Halley did regional rankings... check out your area .  He didn't dig Chandler too much at #8 overall in the west and he excluded East and DLS.  

WEST

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

1.       Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas (15-0)
2.       St. John Bosco, Bellflower, Calif. (13-2)
3.       Mater Dei, Santa Ana, Calif. (13-1)
4.       Centennial, Corona, Calif. (11-2)
5.       Bingham, South Jordan, Utah (14-1)
6.       Saguaro, Scottsdale, Ariz. (14-0)
7.       Cathedral Catholic, San Diego (15-0)
8.       Chandler, Ariz. (12-2)
9.       Saint Louis, Honolulu (10-1)
10.     West Linn, Ore. (14-0)

[HawgGoneIt]

Number 24 and 25 are strange but I can't say one way or the other as I haven't seen or heard of either team before the last weeks poll from USAT. 

 

Not really thinking Cartersville should be in the top 25 either. 

[golfaddict1]

Just now, golfaddict1 said:

Halley did regional rankings... check out your area .  He didn't dig Chandler too much at #8 overall in the west and he excluded East and DLS.  

WEST

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

1.       Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas (15-0)
2.       St. John Bosco, Bellflower, Calif. (13-2)
3.       Mater Dei, Santa Ana, Calif. (13-1)
4.       Centennial, Corona, Calif. (11-2)
5.       Bingham, South Jordan, Utah (14-1)
6.       Saguaro, Scottsdale, Ariz. (14-0)
7.       Cathedral Catholic, San Diego (15-0)
8.       Chandler, Ariz. (12-2)
9.       Saint Louis, Honolulu (10-1)
10.     West Linn, Ore. (14-0)

The Caj even recognizes greatness...  I dug this team all season.  

Chandler beat an overrated Mountain Pointe and 

into the game vs. Valdosta LOL.    

 

[Ararar]

I think Saguaro has been over rated all season.They beat Serra by 15 and SJR beat them by 10 Narbonne beat them about the same MOV as well.Those teams never sniffed the lofty accolades Saguaro did all season

[golfaddict1]

1 minute ago, Ararar said:

I think Saguaro has been over rated all season.They beat Serra by 15 and SJR beat them by 10 Narbonne beat them about the same MOV as well.Those teams never sniffed the lofty accolades Saguaro did all season

Dislike    

[golfaddict1]

EAST

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, District of Columbia, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Connecticut, Vermont, Virginia, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine.

1.       DeMatha, Hyattsville, Md. (12-0)
2.       St. Joseph’s Prep, Philadelphia (14-0)
* 3.       Wise, Upper Marlboro, Md. (14-0)
4.       Wake Forest, N.C. (14-0)
5.       St. Joseph, Montvale, N.J. (10-2)
6.       Cathedral Prep, Erie, Pa. (14-0)
7.       King Phillip Regional, Wrentham, Mass. (12-0)
8.       Darien, Conn. (13-0)
9.       Troy, N.Y. (13-0)
10.     Westfield, Chantilly, Va. (13-2)

What a train wreck this is wow.  GSB, Mjd,  LMFAO!   

*  #25 in the country...   

[golfaddict1]

I believe an OT thread on hard rock/metal is in order for the off-season .   

[Connman]

I wondered where Allen was when I saw Hoover at #19. I didn't wonder anymore after I saw they were ranked behind Rio Rancho, NM in the regional rankings! ?

[AztecPadre]

40 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Halley did regional rankings... check out your area .  He didn't dig Chandler too much at #8 overall in the west and he excluded East and DLS.  

WEST

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

1.       Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas (15-0)
2.       St. John Bosco, Bellflower, Calif. (13-2)
3.       Mater Dei, Santa Ana, Calif. (13-1)
4.       Centennial, Corona, Calif. (11-2)
5.       Bingham, South Jordan, Utah (14-1)
6.       Saguaro, Scottsdale, Ariz. (14-0)
7.       Cathedral Catholic, San Diego (15-0)
8.       Chandler, Ariz. (12-2)
9.       Saint Louis, Honolulu (10-1)
10.     West Linn, Ore. (14-0)

Cathedral?  West Linn? Yeah I use to follow their rankings back in the 90's when I didnt know better.  Thank God for the internet now.  Pretty freaking bad. lol

[AztecPadre]

I wonder just how many people out there take their rankings for gospel?  Obviously those of us who follow this know better, but lots of peops don't follow and probably take these as legit rankings. 

[BigDrop]

7 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

My senior year quote in the 1983 PC Yearbook was...."You don't have to be old to be wise." I was wrong!!

I loved Priest and Maiden in HS. 

Best wishes for your 50th birthday!

[noonereal]

21 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

 

I loved Priest and Maiden in HS. 

I firmly believe that  "there is good music and there is great music, there is no bad music" but these two bands make me wonder!  lol

[Lamarfan]

The USA today is a joke. Hoover makes the list and the team that kicked the crap out of them didnt  Allen  Lol

[Cossacks]

On 12/27/2016 at 9:08 AM, noonereal said:

I firmly believe that  "there is good music and there is great music, there is no bad music" but these two bands make me wonder!  lol

Blasphemy!!!

[aZjimbo]

On 12/26/2016 at 0:17 PM, GardenStateBaller said:

Agree. DBP beat SJR by 17, therefore....

DBP>Saguaro

The transitive property in HSFB strikes again. 

[Wooderson]

On 12/26/2016 at 0:13 PM, Ararar said:

I think Saguaro has been over rated all season.They beat Serra by 15 and SJR beat them by 10 Narbonne beat them about the same MOV as well.Those teams never sniffed the lofty accolades Saguaro did all season

Not to belabor the point but Saguaro's in-state schedule was also very lacking-the team they beat for the title in their division (Catalina Foothills) had never made it farther than the second round prior to 2016, the team they beat in the semifinals (Salpointe) had a good group but lost to a six-win 6A squad and were boat-raced by a 5A semifinalist, Higley was a four-win team a year ago (and had not been past the second round since 2007), the presumptive #2 team in 4A most of the season (Sunrise Mountain) has never made it past the second round...the teams with legitimate long-term resumes in Arizona 4A are limited to Saguaro, Salpointe, and Marcos de Niza.

The out-of-state games were hand-picked as games that would get their name out in the national conversation but also as games where their disadvantage in depth wouldn't be easily exploited-this is why Saguaro doesn't schedule Arizona's best bigger school programs because when they come across a team that isn't overwhelmed by the simple fact that they have 280-pound linemen they go belly-up.  When Saguaro can't simply overwhelm their opponents they are a very fallible squad.  

Not for nothing, Saguaro's 2015 team was better than this edition-three-star quarterback that ended up at Wisconsin, junior o-lineman that was rated as best in his class in Arizona before following his brother to Wisconsin (and becoming a state player of the year there), four-star receiver/corner that ended up at Washington.  And that was a two-loss team because they scheduled bigger-enrollment schools that beat them.  They have a fantastic program where they likely have few equals even nationally among schools of similar enrollment but their status as a national player is puzzling considering their track record outside of their division in Arizona.   

[HawgGoneIt]

7 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Not to belabor the point but Saguaro's in-state schedule was also very lacking-the team they beat for the title in their division (Catalina Foothills) had never made it farther than the second round prior to 2016, the team they beat in the semifinals (Salpointe) had a good group but lost to a six-win 6A squad and were boat-raced by a 5A semifinalist, Higley was a four-win team a year ago (and had not been past the second round since 2007), the presumptive #2 team in 4A most of the season (Sunrise Mountain) has never made it past the second round...the teams with legitimate long-term resumes in Arizona 4A are limited to Saguaro, Salpointe, and Marcos de Niza.

The out-of-state games were hand-picked as games that would get their name out in the national conversation but also as games where their disadvantage in depth wouldn't be easily exploited-this is why Saguaro doesn't schedule Arizona's best bigger school programs because when they come across a team that isn't overwhelmed by the simple fact that they have 280-pound linemen they go belly-up.  When Saguaro can't simply overwhelm their opponents they are a very fallible squad.  

Not for nothing, Saguaro's 2015 team was better than this edition-three-star quarterback that ended up at Wisconsin, junior o-lineman that was rated as best in his class in Arizona before following his brother to Wisconsin (and becoming a state player of the year there), four-star receiver/corner that ended up at Washington.  And that was a two-loss team because they scheduled bigger-enrollment schools that beat them.  They have a fantastic program where they likely have few equals even nationally among schools of similar enrollment but their status as a national player is puzzling considering their track record outside of their division in Arizona.   

 

 

I can dig what you've been saying. You have came through with some very articulate and solid posts which add much to the board and are much appreciated.

 

I think quite a few of us watched Saguaro in a couple of games and were impressed with their execution and talent level, hence them getting pumped a little by some of us on here. I personally liked them as well. Anyway, I think maybe they were getting ranked on that, more than their past was a drain on them. I do get that many teams in the national conversation have gotten there by being steadily in the conversation for multiple seasons and maintaining a level of excellence throughout that time, but every now and again teams like Saguaro emerge with a squad that appears worthy of mention. It obviously helps to play an OOS game or more as well.

 

Depth would be an issue for A LOT of teams ranked well ahead of teams that would out depth them, but that has never done much to stop them from being ranked ahead of those teams, as pollsters are often weighing in a lot of variables, and those variables aren't always the same from team to team. I think the depth issue is a lot of times forgiven in lieu of stepping oos and flashing some great execution and talent in those games where many are paying attention.

 

 

[noonereal]

On 12/28/2016 at 7:50 PM, Lamarfan said:

The USA today is a joke. Hoover makes the list and the team that kicked the crap out of them didnt  Allen  Lol

Honest? Allen top 25? 

Freakin ridiculous. 

[Connman]

2 hours ago, noonereal said:

Honest? Allen top 25? 

Freakin ridiculous. 

you must be desperate, trying to argue with Lamarfan!   

[aZjimbo]

23 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Not to belabor the point but Saguaro's in-state schedule was also very lacking-the team they beat for the title in their division (Catalina Foothills) had never made it farther than the second round prior to 2016, the team they beat in the semifinals (Salpointe) had a good group but lost to a six-win 6A squad and were boat-raced by a 5A semifinalist, Higley was a four-win team a year ago (and had not been past the second round since 2007), the presumptive #2 team in 4A most of the season (Sunrise Mountain) has never made it past the second round...the teams with legitimate long-term resumes in Arizona 4A are limited to Saguaro, Salpointe, and Marcos de Niza.

The out-of-state games were hand-picked as games that would get their name out in the national conversation but also as games where their disadvantage in depth wouldn't be easily exploited-this is why Saguaro doesn't schedule Arizona's best bigger school programs because when they come across a team that isn't overwhelmed by the simple fact that they have 280-pound linemen they go belly-up.  When Saguaro can't simply overwhelm their opponents they are a very fallible squad.  

Not for nothing, Saguaro's 2015 team was better than this edition-three-star quarterback that ended up at Wisconsin, junior o-lineman that was rated as best in his class in Arizona before following his brother to Wisconsin (and becoming a state player of the year there), four-star receiver/corner that ended up at Washington.  And that was a two-loss team because they scheduled bigger-enrollment schools that beat them.  They have a fantastic program where they likely have few equals even nationally among schools of similar enrollment but their status as a national player is puzzling considering their track record outside of their division in Arizona.   

My pre season posts said that if Saguaro got past their first two OOS games I would be shocked if any team on their schedule gave them a game the rest of the season including the playoffs. They were a huge favorite to win 4A in both the pre-season and as they playoffs started. Bottom line is they did what they were supposed to do and beat every team in their way. Both OOS wins were good wins which put them on their way. They were loaded with talent, well coached and did everything asked of them. 

To say the OOS games were hand picked is not fair unless you have actual evidence that was the case. One of the issues is that the AIA keeps changing the divisions etc. For example some schools in some sports are the largest in their class and then in another sport they are in a smaller division. For instance SDO won the D1 state title in softball and yet played D2 in football when everyone knows this was a D1 team.  

[Wooderson]

6 minutes ago, aZjimbo said:

My pre season posts said that if Saguaro got past their first two OOS games I would be shocked if any team on their schedule gave them a game the rest of the season including the playoffs. They were a huge favorite to win 4A in both the pre-season and as they playoffs started. Bottom line is they did what they were supposed to do and beat every team in their way. Both OOS wins were good wins which put them on their way. They were loaded with talent, well coached and did everything asked of them. 

To say the OOS games were hand picked is not fair unless you have actual evidence that was the case. One of the issues is that the AIA keeps changing the divisions etc. For example some schools in some sports are the largest in their class and then in another sport they are in a smaller division. For instance SDO won the D1 state title in softball and yet played D2 in football when everyone knows this was a D1 team.  

I think the fact that the opponents they played were Serra and Valor Christian speaks volumes to how "hand-picked" those opponents were-they were teams that would be recognizable to a national audience yet were teams that an experienced opponent could exploit early in the year.  Anyone who took time to look deeper than a simple nod of "these are good games" was going to come to the conclusion that a team with the pedigree and experience that Saguaro had would beat two smaller, less experienced squads regardless of the reputation they had earned up to that point.  I wasn't shocked either when Saguaro ran the table-none of the teams they played were that good (from a relative perspective).  

My question is this-how do a pair of okay out of state wins propel a team into the national conversation when that team has never had a signature win over one of their fellow power programs in their home state?  Again, every time Saguaro has ventured outside of the comfort of their enrollment class they have floundered-they surrendered a three-touchdown halftime lead when they played eventual D-1 champ Desert Vista in 2011, sat their starters in a 65-0 loss to eventual D-2 champ Chaparral that same year, lost the subsequent rematches with those teams in 2012 (and Chaparral again in 2013; they did beat Chaparral in 2014 but it was a diminished Chaparral squad), and most recently went 0-2 against D-1 foes Centennial and Pinnacle in 2015 (and Pinnacle is not considered by anyone to be on equal footing with Saguaro).  Saguaro is a fantastic mid-enrollment squad but their results in their marquee in-state games speaks volumes on their actual standing alongside teams like Centennial, Chandler, Mountain Pointe, and Hamilton.

With the AIA's classification system from 2011 to 2015 you could be in the largest division in one sport and a smaller division in another due to the fact that they went to a model where there were fewer classifications for sports other than football; 2015 in particular resulted in some weird placements as teams were grouped off a mysterious algorithm that included past performance, socioeconomics, and enrollment that ultimately resulted in divisions of unequal size (D-1 had 17 teams and included your Chandlers, Mountain Pointes, Hamiltons, and Centennials, D-2 was 35 teams including Saguaro and 34 teams the D-1 squads had spent the better part of a decade beating the pants off of).  2016 marked the AIA's return to six enrollment-only classifications across all sports so as of now you can not be in a larger class in other sports while in a smaller division otherwise.  

In your scenario with O'Connor 2015 was the first (and thus far only) year since 2010 that the Eagles played D-2/5A/5A-2 ball and was entirely based on the past performance aspect of the aforementioned mysterious algorithm (i.e. they are not a quality football program). 

[golfaddict1]

https://www.podcat.com/podcasts/jedcpf-hs-football-america/episodes/yct17q-high-school-football-america-radio-show-december-1-2016

Nice listen with the HC of Saguaro in the latter stage of the podcast for about 20 min.   Seems to have a quality staff on board with him.  

Chandler had a nice run after losing by 45 points to Mountain Pointe early.  Mountain Pointe barely got by Red Mountain in the semis by 7... they rode some warped 45 point win all season in the top 25 and came down to earth with a reality check struggling with weaker opponents at times.   You can chip away at Chandler as well...  they gave up 101 points in 2 games.   Beating Perry isn't going to excite our forum.  What else, a loss to Cen10 by 7.   OK, so they avenged a 45 pt Norcrossed game, who was overrated.  They beat Perry 2X and lost to Cen10 in a close one.   This is overwhelmingly the AZ #1?  Debatable.  

If handpicked means playing on an ESPN channel, that's not a bad thing.   How many folks here knew who Saguaro was until this season?  The HC scheduling two name brand OOS schools is certainly different than in past years...  I think the HC knew what he had and did a nice job keeping the lowest winning pt differential at 15 pts all season... no, it wasn't a murderers row schedule in AZ,  but they are likely in a slightly better position where local parents/sons will be enticed to transfer and fill open spots in a well coached and run program.   They had a senior laden squad and no doubt will have plenty of openings for starting and/or depth roles.  We will see based on their schedule how the HC feels about the upcoming season.    

If the AZ locals get info on games, please share!      

 

[HawgGoneIt]

Wooderson and Golfaddict bringing it with the off-season banter!

 

Both of you guys have great points.

 

 

I was glad that I got to see the Saguaro/Valor Christian game. I had never heard of Saguaro and then they showed up as a polished and impressive squad. I think that's a great thing for Arizona and high school football in general when we get these nice OOS matchups televised by ESPN. 

 

Not only do these things open homers eyes to the fact that there is good football played everywhere, but it adds exposure for kids looking for scholies.

 

 

Chandler was a super impressive squad at the end. Going ham on Valdosta with the trick plays and demolishing them was a cherry on the top for a pretty good season in the polls for Arizona.