Georgias Actual OOS Results vs CalPreps Projections

[ECHS05]

For the past 5-6 years, Ive done this. After the season I use CPs PAM to compare CPs projections to actual results using Georgias OoS games. What this says, is how well each team goes back and does in their own state after playing in this OOS game. This can tell you a lot. When you do every single OOS game for a state like I do, it can tell you whether or not CP undervalues or overvalues a state. A state that constantly outperforms the scores CP projects for them, is likely being undervalued by CP. Which means that states scale needs adjusting in comparison to the rest of the states in the country. A state that constantly underperforms is likely the reverse... they are overvalued by CP. Id like to do California next... to see where they fit in. 

Keep in mind, Georgias OOS opponents have the exact same opportunity to outperform CPs projections as Georgia teams do. Technically the odds should be 50/50 either way. But you'll quickly learn that isnt the case. Because GA teams are so undervalued at the site... you'll notice they almost always do better than CalPreps projections them to. 

 

Of all the states GA plays, South Carolina seems to be a bit undervalued themselves. Maybe North Carolina too, but most GA vs NC games are small time teams... so its hard to tell.

 

>> Now if you'd like me to save you the time of looking at every single one of these games... here are the overall stats from below <<

In all 59 of the GHSAs(1A-7A) OOS games in the 2016 season, Georgia outperformed CalPreps Projections in 46 of them. Thats 77.97% of the time.  They underperformed only 12 times, or 20.34% of the time. And 1 time, they were Even with CP projection, which is 1.69% of the time.

Thats GA outperforming CPs projection essentially 78 times out of every 100 games. 

The overall point total GA outperformed by was +416 points in 59 games... for an average of +7.05 ppg.

I could do a breakdown by state if anyone would like to see it... itd likely show which states are overvalued or undervalued themselves. 

 

==========

CP Projection: Parkview GA 35, Christ Presbyterian Academy TN 21 ... GA +14

Actual: Parkview GA 32, Christ Presbyterian Academy TN 7 ... GA +25

Difference: GA outperforms by +11

GA 1-0 outperforming; +11 points in 1 game (+11 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: McCallie TN 38, Peachtree Ridge GA 17 ... GA -21

Actual: Peachtree Ridge GA 20, McCallie TN 9 ... GA +11

Difference: GA outperforms by +32

GA 2-0 outperforming; +43 points in 2 games (+21.5 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: McCallie TN 42, Blessed Trinity GA 14 ... GA -28

Actual: McCallie TN 56, Blessed Trinity GA 6 ... GA -50

Difference: GA underperforms by -22

GA 2-1 outperforming; +21 points in 3 games (+7 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: North Augusta SC 35, Lakeside-Evans GA 12 ... GA -23

Actual: North Augusta SC 41, Lakeside-Evans GA 16 ... GA -25

Difference: GA underperforms by -2

GA 2-2 outperforming; +19 points in 4 games (+4.75 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bluffton SC 31, Screven Co. GA 24 ... GA -7

Actual: Bluffton SC 32, Screven Co. GA 25 ... GA -7

Difference: GA -- Even 

GA 2-2-1 outperforming; +19 points in 5 games (+3.8 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Fort Dorchester SC 40, Sandy Creek GA 24 ... GA -16

Actual: Fort Dorchester SC 48, Sandy Creek GA 35 ... GA -13

Difference: GA outperforms by +3 

GA 3-2-1 outperforming; +22 points in 6 games (+3.67 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Lincoln Co. GA 41, McCormick SC 7 ... GA +34

Actual: Lincoln Co. GA 41, McCormick SC 0 ... GA +41

Difference: GA outperforms by +7

GA 4-2-1 outperforming; +29 points in 7 games (+4.14 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: North Augusta SC 31, Evans GA 22 ... GA -9

Actual: North Augusta SC 28, Evans GA 20 ... GA -8

Difference: GA outperforms by +1

GA 5-2-1 outperforming; +30 points in 8 games (+3.75 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Spartanburg SC 26, Etowah GA 19 ... GA -7 

Actual: Etowah GA 21, Spartanburg SC 14 ... GA +7

Difference: GA outperforms by +14

GA 6-2-1 outperforming; +44 points in 9 games (+4.89 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Westside (Anderson) SC 60, Hart Co. GA 0 ... GA -60

Actual: Westside (Anderson) SC 42, Hart Co. GA 6 ... GA -36

Difference: GA outperforms by +24

GA 7-2-1 outperforming; +68 points in 10 games (+6.8 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Screven Co. GA 35, Wade Hampton SC 21 ... GA +14

Actual: Screven Co. GA 32, Wade Hampton SC 17 ... GA +15

Difference: GA outperforms by +1 

GA 8-2-1 outperforming; +69 points in 11 games (+6.27 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bluffton SC 42, New Hampstead SC 13 ... GA -29

Actual: Bluffton SC 30, New Hampstead GA 0 ... GA -30

Difference: GA underperforms by -1

GA 8-3-1 outperforming; +68 points in 12 games (+5.67 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Abbeville SC 27, Lincoln Co. GA 7 ... GA -20

Actual: Lincoln Co. GA 7, Abbeville SC 7 ... GA Even

Difference: GA outperforms by +20 

GA 9-3-1 outperforming; +88 points in 13 games (+6.77 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Buford GA 42, Bishop Timon-St. Jude NY 7 ... GA +35

Actual: Buford GA 49, Bishop Timon-St. Jude NY 6 ... GA +43

Difference: GA outperforms by +8

GA 10-3-1 outperforming; +96 points in 14 games (+6.86 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: St. Peter's Prep NJ 41, Blessed Trinity GA 17 ... GA -24

Actual: St. Peter's Prep NJ 41, Blessed Trinity GA 28 ... GA -13

Difference: GA outperforms by +11

GA 11-3-1 outperforming; +107 points in 15 games (+7.13 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Hapeville Charter GA 38, Swain Co. NC 12 ... GA +26

Actual: Hapeville Charter GA 35, Swain Co. NC 7 ... GA +28

Difference: GA outperforms by +2

GA 12-3-1 outperforming; +109 points in 16 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Towns Co. GA 28, Hayesville NC 14 ... GA +14

Actual: Towns Co. GA 18, Hayesville NC 7 ... GA +11

Difference: GA underperforms by -3

GA 12-4-1 outperforming; +106 points in 17 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Union Co. GA 55, Hayesville NC 14 ... GA +41

Actual: Union Co. GA 61, Hayesville NC 7 ... GA +54

Difference: GA outperforms by +13

GA 13-4-1 outperforming; +119 points in 18 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Union Co. GA 48, Andrews NC 8 ... GA +40

Actual: Union Co. GA 45, Andrews NC 20 ... GA +25

Difference: GA underperforms by -15 

GA 13-5-1 outperforming; +104 points in 19 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Fannin Co. GA 34, Andrews NC 17 ... GA +17

Actual: Fannin Co. GA 42, Andrews NC 0 ... GA +42

Difference: GA outperforms by +25

GA 14-5-1 outperforming; +129 points in 20 games (+6.45 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Murphy NC 34, Gilmer GA 3 ... GA -31

Actual: Murphy NC 27, Gilmer GA 6 ... GA -21

Difference: GA outperforms by +10

GA 15-5-1 outperforming; +139 points in 21 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 21, Godby FL 14 ... GA +7 

Actual: Bainbridge GA 14, Godby FL 0 ... GA +14

Difference: GA outperforms by +7

GA 16-5-1 outperforming; +146 points in 22 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Oakleaf FL 35, Camden Co. GA 17 ... GA -18

Actual: Oakleaf FL 27, Camden Co. GA 13 ... GA -14

Difference: GA outperforms by +4

GA 17-5-1 outperforming; +150 points in 23 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Miami Norland FL 22, Creekside GA 14 ... GA -8

Actual: Creekside GA 9, Miami Norland FL 7 ... GA +2

Difference: GA outperforms by +10

GA 18-5-1 outperforming; +160 points in 24 games (+6.67 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Lowndes GA 62, Bayside FL 8 ... GA +54

Actual: Lowndes GA 69, Bayside FL 0 ... GA +69

Difference: GA outperforms by +15

GA 19-5-1 outperforming; +175 points in 25 games (+7 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Venice FL 48, Camden Co. GA 13 ... GA -35

Actual: Venice FL 46, Camden Co. GA 17 ... GA -29

Difference: GA outperforms by +6

GA 20-5-1 outperforming; +181 points in 26 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: AH-Plantation FL 28, Colquitt Co. GA 22 ... GA -6

Actual: AH-Plantation FL 17, Camden Co. GA 14 ... GA -3

Difference: GA outperforms by +3

GA 21-5-1 outperforming; +184 points in 27 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: IMG Academy USA 28, Grayson GA 19 ... GA -9

Actual: IMG Academy USA 26, Grayson GA 7 ... GA -19

Difference: GA underperforms by -10

GA 21-6-1 outperforming; +174 points in 28 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Marist GA 21, Belen Jesuit FL 17 ... GA +4

Actual: Marist GA 27, Belen Jesuit FL 0 ... GA +27

Difference: GA outperforms by +23

GA 22-6-1 outperforming; +197 points in 29 games (+6.79 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Westminster GA 42, Naples Community FL 24 ... GA +18

Actual: Westminster GA 42, Naples Community FL 21 ... GA +21

Difference: GA outperforms by +3

GA 23-6-1 outperforming; +200 points in 30 games (+6.67 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Cambridge Christian FL 40, Twiggs Co. GA 21 ... GA -19

Actual: Cambridge Christian FL 38, Twiggs Co. GA 14 ... GA -24

Difference GA underperforms by -5

GA 23-7-1 outperforming; +195 points in 31 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Coffee GA 35, University Christian FL 26 ... GA +9

Actual: Coffee GA 49, University Christian FL 28 ... GA +21

Difference: GA outperforms by +12

GA 24-7-1 outperforming; +207 points in 32 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Grayson GA 40, Deerfield Beach FL 12 ... GA +28

Actual: Grayson GA 39, Deerfield Beach FL 14 ... GA +25

Difference: GA underperforms by -3

GA 24-8-1 outperforming; +204 points in 33 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Buford GA 48, Broward International FL 3 ... GA +45

Actual: Buford GA 48, Broward International FL 8 ... GA +40

Difference: GA underperforms by -5

GA 24-9-1 outperforming; +199 points in 34 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Rickards FL 31, Bainbridge GA 19 ... GA -12

Actual: Rickards FL 36, Bainbridge GA 34 ... GA -2

Difference: GA outperforms by +10

GA 25-9-1 outperforming; +209 points in 35 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Miller Co. GA 31, Sneads FL 14 ... GA +17

Actual: Miller Co. GA 35, Sneads FL 13 ... GA +22

Difference: GA outperforms by +5

GA 26-9-1 outperforming; +214 points in 36 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Pomona CO 26, Glynn Academy GA 24 ... GA -2

Actual: Glynn Academy GA 33, Pomona CO 14 ... GA +19

Difference: GA outperforms by +21

GA 27-9-1 outperforming; +235 points in 37 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Valor Christian CO 35, Greater Atl. Christian GA 17 ... GA -18

Actual: Valor Christian CO 21, Greater Atl. Christian GA 17 ... GA -4

Difference: GA outperforms by +14

GA 28-9-1 outperforming; +249 points in 38 games (+6.55 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Tift Co. GA 35, ThunderRidge CO 14 ... GA +21

Actual: Tift Co. GA 55, ThunderRidge CO 19 ... GA +36

Difference: GA outperforms by +15

GA 29-9-1 outperforming; +264 points in 39 games (+6.77 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Chandler AZ 35, Valdosta GA 22 ... GA -13

Actual: Chandler AZ 44, Valdosta GA 24 ... GA -20

Difference: GA underperforms by -7

GA 29-10-1 outperforming; +257 points in 40 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Chattooga GA 27,  Fort Payne AL 19 ... GA +8

Actual: Chattooga GA 28, Fort Payne AL 18 ... GA +10 

Difference: GA outperforms by +2

GA 30-10-1 outperforming; +259 points in 41 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Darlington GA 41, Gaston AL 8 ... GA +33

Actual: Darlington GA 51, Gaston AL 0 ... GA +51

Difference: GA outperforms by +18

GA 31-10-1 outperforming; +277 points in 42 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Eufaula AL 35, Early Co. GA 6 ... GA -29

Actual: Eufaula AL 27, Early Co. GA 13 ... GA -14

Difference: GA outperforms by +15

GA 32-10-1 outperforming; +292 points in 43 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Smiths Station AL 26, Harris Co. GA 20 ... GA -6

Actual: Harris Co. GA 17, Smiths Station AL 16 ... GA +1

Difference: GA outperforms by +7 

GA 33-10-1 outperforming; +299 points in 44 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Opelika AL 40, Carver-Columbus GA 7 ... GA -33

Actual: Opelika AL 34, Carver-Columbus GA 7 ... GA -27 

Difference: GA outperforms by +6

GA 34-10-1 outperforming; +305 points in 45 games (+6.78 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Piedmont AL 38, Cedartown GA 19 ... GA -19

Actual: Piedmont AL 29, Cedartown GA 22 ... GA -7

Difference: GA outperforms by +12 

GA 35-10-1 outperforming; +317 points in 46 games 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Randolph-Clay GA 42, Abbeville AL 21 ... GA +21

Actual: Randolph-Clay GA 36, Abbeville AL 6 ... GA +30

Difference: GA outperforms by +9

GA 36-10-1 outperforming; +326 points in 47 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Cherokee Co. AL 30, Rockmart GA 28 ... GA -2

Actual: Rockmart GA 54, Cherokee Co. AL 28 ... GA +26

Difference: GA outperforms by +28

GA 37-10-1 outperforming; +354 points in 48 games (+7.38 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Chattooga GA 42, Cedar Bluff AL 13 ... GA +29

Actual: Chattooga GA 49, Cedar Bluff AL 7 ... GA +42

Difference: GA outperforms by +13

GA 38-10-1 outperforming; +367 points in 49 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Handley AL 28, Callaway GA 27 ... GA -1

Actual: Callaway GA 42, Handley AL 28 ... GA +14

Difference: GA outperforms by +15

GA 39-10-1 outperforming; +382 points in 50 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: North Sand Mountain AL 21, Dade Co. GA 14 ... GA -7

Actual: Dade Co. GA 20, North Sand Mountain AL 7 ... GA +13

Difference: GA outperforms by +20

GA 40-10-1 outperforming; +402 points in 51 games (+7.88 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Minor AL 58, Central-Carrollton GA 3 ... GA -55

Actual: Minor AL 54, Central-Carrollton GA 0 ... GA -54

Difference: GA outperforms by +1

GA 41-10-1 outperforming; +403 points in 52 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Mt. Zion GA 42, Ranburne AL 3 ... GA +39

Actual: Mt. Zion GA 47, Ranburne AL 0 ... GA +47

Difference: GA outperforms by +8

GA 42-10-1 outperforming; +411 points in 53 games (+7.75 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Buford GA 34, Jeff Davis AL 19 ... GA +15

 Actual: Buford GA 38, Jeff Davis AL 30 ... GA +8

Difference: GA underperforms by -7

GA 42-11-1 outperforming; +404 points in 54 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Temple GA 35, Loachapoka AL 21 ... GA +14

Actual: Temple GA 35, Loachapoka AL 7 ... GA +28

Difference: GA outperforms by +14

GA 43-11-1 outperforming; +418 points in 55 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Bainbridge GA 26, Dothan AL 8 ... GA +18

Actual: Dothan AL 13, Bainbridge GA 6 ... GA -7

Difference: GA underperforms by -25

GA 43-12-1 outperforming; +393 points in 56 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Fitzgerald GA 42, Smiths Station AL 12 ... GA +30

Actual: Fitzgerald GA 41, Smiths Station AL 7 ... GA +34

Difference: GA outperforms by +4

GA 44-12-1 outperforming; +397 points in 57 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Grayson GA 38, Ramsay AL 14 ... GA +24

Actual: Grayson GA 38, Ramsay AL 6 ... GA +32

Difference: GA outperforms by +8

GA 45-12-1 outperforming; +405 points in 58 games

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: Grayson GA 28, Hoover AL 17 ... GA +11

Actual: Grayson GA 36, Hoover AL 14 ... GA +22

Difference: GA outperforms by +11

GA 46-12-1 outperforming; +416 points in 59 games (+7.05 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

[Omaha Vol]

Good Lord! Seriously? I'm not a fan of computers rankings, either, but come on. I think you've made your point. 

[94Packer]

38 minutes ago, Omaha Vol said:

Good Lord! Seriously? I'm not a fan of computers rankings, either, but come on. I think you've made your point. 

I'm actually glad he put some proof on the table that cal preps is skewed against GA. I would love to see a 5 year average... I think that would help solidify the point. It gets old hearing "were better than you... because Cal Preps says so" and the data doesn't support it.

[concha]

Meet a girl.

Get a life.

[Cossacks]

Good lawd!

[TheMaximumHornetSting]

Cmon man... 

We all know CP is flawed but let this go.... 

You know Nor and Californians have a silver spoon up their ass.... 

You cant prove them wrong.... even when they are....

[AztecPadre]

Lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ararar]

I wonder if ECHS ever stopped to think that maybe just maybe that Calpreps had the GA opponents ratings to high to start the season.I would venture to say that they did at a 60% clip.Which would account for the apparent "out performed " nonsense.everyone is free to check themselves.

 

 

[Pops]

If GA is undervalued by 7, Grayson would have been ahead of IMG last season

i don't think Georgians will be happy until their teams are ranked ahead of undefeated teams that beat them by 3 TDs

[TheMaximumHornetSting]

3 minutes ago, Pops said:

If GA is undervalued by 7, Grayson would have been ahead of IMG last season

i don't think Georgians will be happy until their teams are ranked ahead of undefeated teams that beat them by 3 TDs

And of course Captain Blowhard-est is always here to say some ridiculous BS..... 

 

Give it a rest pops.... 

Before you start insulting people. You should learn how to spell Glenville...

[Pops]

1 hour ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

And of course Captain Blowhard-est is always here to say some ridiculous BS..... 

 

Give it a rest pops.... 

Before you start insulting people. You should learn how to spell Glenville...

Sorry you find it insulting that I can add 7 ratings points to Grayson and see that they'd be ahead of the undefeated team that beat them by 3 TDs

i thought this was a fact sharing thread and didn't intend to insult the perpetually persecuted people that also aren't good at math

[Omaha Vol]

1 hour ago, Pops said:

i thought this was a fact sharing thread and didn't intend to insult the perpetually persecuted people that also aren't good at math

The mathematics is not the issue. It's the intangibles that Calpreps lacks. 

[Cat_Scratch]

• do California next...

[TheRealCAJ]

9 hours ago, Omaha Vol said:

Good Lord! Seriously? I'm not a fan of computers rankings, either, but come on. I think you've made your point. 

That guy has a sickness and I'm not kidding.

[golfaddict1]

I'm on the crazy train...  GA does not belong with PA and IL, they belong with CA, TX, FL and OH.   

5 hours ago, Cat_Scratch said:

• do California next...

I did and it's ridiculous.   From a prior post reflecting Norcross being rated higher than all but 2 Cali teams in 2012... now check the project a matchups, emphasized with #20 in Cali vs. #1 in GA.    This is called state scaling on LSD.   

 * GA #1 was rated #16 nationally that year.  2 teams in CA were rated higher.  

*  [2012] #20 CA  28,  #1  GA  22  NEUTRAL FIELD...  #20 CA rating 55.8   #1 GA rating 68.4

[2012] #7 CA  31, #1 GA  20  
[2012] #8 CA  31,  #1 GA  22

[2012] #1 GA 28, #9 CA  26     *computer glitch lol, can't be  
[2012] #10 CA 34, #1  GA  24

[2012] #11 CA 34,  #1  GA  28

[2012]#17 CA  34, #1  GA  31  

[2012] #1 GA 31, #21 CA  28    #21 CA rating 55.5  #1 GA rating 68.4

 

[954gator]

19 hours ago, ECHS05 said:

CP Projection: St. Peter's Prep NJ 41, Blessed Trinity GA 17 ... GA -24

Actual: St. Peter's Prep NJ 41, Blessed Trinity GA 28 ... GA -13

Difference: GA outperforms by +11

GA 11-3-1 outperforming; +107 points in 15 games (+7.13 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: McCallie TN 42, Blessed Trinity GA 14 ... GA -28

Actual: McCallie TN 56, Blessed Trinity GA 6 ... GA -50

Difference: GA underperforms by -22

GA 2-1 outperforming; +21 points in 3 games (+7 ppg)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CP Projection: McCallie TN 38, Peachtree Ridge GA 17 ... GA -21

Actual: Peachtree Ridge GA 20, McCallie TN 9 ... GA +11

Difference: GA outperforms by +32

GA 2-0 outperforming; +43 points in 2 games (+21.5 ppg)

I found this matchup string interesting.  Take it with a grain of salt of course.   The idea Nor tends to emphasize is how much of a grind the BNU is, and I would agree.  They are definitely very tough schedules.  Where I tend to disagree with him is the idea that these Ga 7A teams have these cake schedules.  You could say the same for McCaullie's schedule.    McCaullie whooped BT by more than SPP, with SPP playing the game in NJ and McCaullie playing in GA.   At the very least those two teams are somewhat in the same realm, and CP doesn't do that bad here. (103 vs 200 nat rk).    Then you get to PTR, and calpreps botches it all up. (914 nat rk)   Why such a big jump here?      

  

SPP NJ (8-4)   Nat rk (103)  NJ rk (3)

McCaullie TN  (7-5)   Nat rk (200)   TN rk (6)

Peachtree Ridge Ga  (6-6)  Nat rk (914)  Ga rk (34)

[Omaha Vol]

3 minutes ago, 954gator said:

I found this matchup string interesting.  Take it with a grain of salt of course.   

McCallie is one of those up and down teams. They'll show up and smoke a team like Brentwood Acad. then turn around and get blown out by Baylor. They're certainly capable of beating a Big 6 team, but I wouldn't bet on it most games. 

[HawgGoneIt]

3 hours ago, 954gator said:

 The idea Nor tends to emphasize is how much of a grind the BNU is, and I would agree.  They are definitely very tough schedules.  Where I tend to disagree with him is the idea that these Ga 7A teams have these cake schedules.  

This is the same thing that so many have been arguing with him over since I've been here. Before last season (the first season with 7 classifications) there were quite a few really tough regions in reality. Of course these guys could always go to CalPreps and say that was bullshit though, hence the constant debate over Cal and the overall strength of the teams in these regions. 

There has no doubt also been weak regions in 6A also though, but that shouldn't take away from the strength of the really good regions, however in CalPreps it does seem to do just that. 

Before last season, the region 1 (6A) region play was probably some of the toughest region play in the country, but CalPreps said different and these guys cling onto that little CP number over many people looking on and knowing the reality. Certainly Camden was on a down year, by their standards, but everyone else was as usual a tough opponent. Hell, even Camden on that decline which eventually culminated into the coach being replaced one season later, was no pushover.

It has sometimes been pretty difficult reading along with them and keeping one's head from spinning around three times and then exploding like something off that movie "Scanners". 

 

As far as this past season, the first 7A season, I think it's too soon to really tell how the regions will shape up. At first glance, it looks like stuff got a little watered down in places that used to be really strong region-wise, such as region 1. I think as far as region play goes, other than the loss of a couple of teams, the remainder is still pretty tough, just not as many there to play, so the region gauntlet isn't what it was just a couple of seasons ago. On the other hand, that does leave room for more non-region games, like Colquitt did with Tucker (a very tough opponent usually). Of course, again, these CP adorers can go into there and pull up some decimal points and scoff at Tucker saying they don't stack up to Xavier's School for Gifted Youngsters from up in Westchester County New York  

I'm sure it's never too soon for Cal Preps and it's adorers to tell what regions and classifications are strong though. 

 

 

[ECHS05]

18 hours ago, Pops said:

If GA is undervalued by 7, Grayson would have been ahead of IMG last season

i don't think Georgians will be happy until their teams are ranked ahead of undefeated teams that beat them by 3 TDs

This shit coming from the King of Hyperimprovement.

The irony.

[ECHS05]

16 hours ago, Pops said:

Sorry you find it insulting that I can add 7 ratings points to Grayson and see that they'd be ahead of the undefeated team that beat them by 3 TDs

i thought this was a fact sharing thread and didn't intend to insult the perpetually persecuted people that also aren't good at math

You say all the time that "DLS wouldve done this at the end of the year".

Maybe Grayson wouldve beaten IMG at the end of the year. They were clearly better themselves. IMG was the 1st game of the season for Grayson. IMGs 2nd technically (Carol City). Grayson had a new coach and lots of new star players. Throw in 4 turnovers bc of the HC trying to fit his new offensive system in with their old one THAT game... and... if you look at the way Grayson played McEachern (needing an INT and FG at the end of the game to win)... then how they performed vs Hoover,  Colquitt, Mill Creek(who beat McEachern by 3 in their previous game), and Roswell... it becomes clear they were better...

They have far more of an argument using that logic than any year youve made the argument for DLS.

If the above is your stance, I dont want to hear the shit about DLS playing better at the End of the Year again.

[ECHS05]

21 hours ago, 94Packer said:

I'm actually glad he put some proof on the table that cal preps is skewed against GA. I would love to see a 5 year average... I think that would help solidify the point. It gets old hearing "were better than you... because Cal Preps says so" and the data doesn't support it.

Ive done this for 5 years +... its been anywhere from 6-9 ppg every single season for the past 5 years(Pops knows, Hes been in those other threas where it was 8ppg+ with GA outperforming over 80% of the time.)

Itd be impossible to find at this point bc the old site is gone... this was a lot of work for just this season so doing it for 4 more years all at once would be exhausting.

[Pops]

7 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

This shit coming from the King of Hyperimprovement.

The irony.

Wouldn't expect a guy that doesn't understand CP to understand that my post has zero to do with hyper improvement, thus there is no irony

Most teams improve (some more or more consistently than others, ahem); some regress; some stay the same

That's irrelevant to the point

Just because I point out sometimes that DLS almost always plays their best in December doesn't mean that I have ever suggested a result ought to be ignored.  In fact, in 2015, I opined that DLS was the best team in the country at the end of the year, but they wouldn't get my vote for #1 because they lost in August.  Ditto 2011 (although would have still put them behind at least a couple of teams at year end)

You are mixing arguments because you don't understand

6 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

You say all the time that "DLS wouldve done this at the end of the year".

Maybe Grayson wouldve beaten IMG at the end of the year. They were clearly better themselves. IMG was the 1st game of the season for Grayson. IMGs 2nd technically (Carol City). Grayson had a new coach and lots of new star players. Throw in 4 turnovers bc of the HC trying to fit his new offensive system in with their old one THAT game... and...

They have far more of an argument using that logic than any year youve made the argument for DLS.

If the above is your stance, I dont want to hear the shit about DLS playing better at the End of the Year again.

Rinse/ repeat

(plus add the caveat that your assertion about Grayson having a better argument for improvement than DLS is absurd -- they barely beat a fringe top 50 team at the end of the year, while DLS blows out top 10 opponents or merely beats #1s)

[Pops]

5 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Ive done this for 5 years +... its been anywhere from 6-9 ppg every single season for the past 5 years(Pops knows, Hes been in those other threas where it was 8ppg+ with GA outperforming over 80% of the time.)

Itd be impossible to find at this point bc the old site is gone... this was a lot of work for just this season so doing it for 4 more years all at once would be exhausting.

Yes, and we all reject your assertion that Grayson should have been ranked ahead of an undefeated team that beat them by 3 TDs because they had a new coach

Good grief

[ECHS05]

Just now, Pops said:

Wouldn't expect a guy that doesn't understand CP to understand that my post has zero to do with hyper improvement, thus there is no irony

Most teams improve (some more or more consistently than others, ahem); some regress; some stay the same

That's irrelevant to the point

Just because I point out sometimes that DLS almost always plays their best in December doesn't mean that I have ever suggested a result ought to be ignored.  In fact, in 2015, I opined that DLS was the best team in the country at the end of the year, but they wouldn't get my vote for #1 because they lost in August.  Ditto 2011 (although would have still put them behind at least a couple of teams at year end)

You are mixing arguments because you don't understand

Rinse/ repeat

(plus add the caveat that your assertion about Grayson having a better argument for improvement than DLS is absurd -- they barely beat a fringe top 50 team at the end of the year, while DLS blows out top 10 opponents or merely beats #1s)

Heres the thing... there can always be 1 game anamolies or matchup problems in particular ganes. Hence the reason I did ALL 59 GAMES DUMBASS. To erase the 1 game anamolies.

Remember Georgias 7 Blue OOS Games to 1 Red OOS Game? Why arent you arguing the fact that so many of these OOS teams that GA beat, are ranked ahead of them then?

7-to-1. 

Thats no 1 game anamoly.

[ECHS05]

1 minute ago, Pops said:

Yes, and we all reject your assertion that Grayson should have been ranked ahead of an undefeated team that beat them by 3 TDs because they had a new coach

Good grief

We all do? I know you are old, so its too late to expect you to change. But you dont speak for anyone but yourself. Unless by you all, you mean you and the pet mouse in your pocket.