Once in a Generation Virus

[Sammyswordsman]

Covid-19 #OIAGV

Below is a good read

 

People don't seem to understand a couple points about the China virus and why all of this effort is being made when it's only infected a very small % and killed even less than that small %. 98-99% survive it. It's really simple to understand. There are three main reasons:

1:35 PM · Mar 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

 

 

Replying to

@unseen1_unseen

1. The reproduction data on the china virus. (R0) The (RO) for the Covid-19 is high about 1.6-2.6 according to the Lancet or a avg of 2.1(RO)

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international...

 

thelancet.com

 

 

To put this in context the Spanish Flu had an (RO) of about 1.8 and other pandemics had an avg anywhere between 1.4-1.8 (RO) ) and non-pandemic seasonal FLU is less than 1.28(RO) according to the NCI https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25186370#:~:text=The%20median%20R%20value%20for%20seasonal%20influenza%20was%201.28%20

(IQR,six%20R%20values%20were%20%3C1.

 

 

As the above data shows this virus has the POTENTIAL to surpass the Spanish FLu in the amount of people impacted "if nothing is done". The lancet article estimates that when China placed travel restrictions it decreased the 2.1(RO) to around 1 or less.

 

In other words, these actions are being taken because the POTENTIAL of the contagion infecting large percent of the population is high if nothing is done. This is where you get the "scary" numbers of people talking about 60-70% of the population being infected.

 

The people pushing those numbers are correct but they leave out the part of "if nothing is done". As we have seen in China, South Korea, Japan, Europe and now the USA things are being done and that (Ro) has dropped and should continue to drop as long as active measures are used.

 

So, while the POTENTIAL is there for 60-70% of the population to be infected it won't happen because of the measures being taken. Humans tend to be that way when forced with worst case scenarios; they take steps to make sure it doesn't happen.

2. The Covid-19 has a high death rate compared to influenza. This isn't the Flu. Current estimates of the death rate is 1% or 10 times higher than the FLU. That number will most likely come down as more mild cases are found. South Korea is showing about a 0.7% DR(7times higher)

 

Since this virus is new, there is no human immunity to it. That will come as people get infected and overcome the virus but as of now there is no human immunity to it in the population. There is also no vaccine nor any medicine to help fight against it, yet. Those will come too.

 

 

3. Due to the above the china virus requires a large % of the infected to seek hospital care.

 

No immunity, vaccine, drugs and the fact that virus impacts the lungs, estimates are that 20% of the cases need some type of hospitalization. Remember 98-99% of the people who get this survive but that is with hospitalization (80% don't need hospitalization)

 

So the worst case is that the virus spreads to 60-70% of the population, the hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate goes up causing widespread death in the older generations( those 50 and over). Of course all of this isn't going to happen because humans step in to avoid

 

...the worst case. This is where the fake media is failing the public. They are not giving you the information that where humans have stepped in, like in China/SK the (RO) decreased from pandemic level to less than normal flu levels. That when quarantines/travel limitations are

 

...adopted like Trump is doing the % of the population infected is not 60-70% but less than 1% and the death rate is lowered as those that need hospital care receive it. So you can't compare this with the Flu because the POTENTIAL of this virus to cause death and mayhem is

 

several times higher than the avg Flu season. However, That POTENTIAL will remain only a POTENTIAL as long as the proper steps are taken. As Of been saying for a month or so now. It's a concern, not a panic. those pushing the worst case without context like the fake media

 

...are causing a panic where there is no need but those saying it's not a concern and it's an overreaction are not factoring in the POTENTIAL if we do nothing. This china virus requires a measured response, not a panic. Closing down large gatherings and limiting contact

in infected areas is a smart move. Closing down the borders to limit the ability of this virus to spread unknowingly in the country is also a smart idea. Closing down the entire country isn't a smart move, it's an overreaction. Once testing is online most of the country can go

 

back to normal expect for large gatherings and the response can concentrate on as the infected clusters showing community spread. I see nothing wrong with people buying extra supplies to be prepared. Buying six cases of toilet paper is an overreaction.

 

President Trump and his administration have done a good job in explaining the context. the fake media have been terribly only pushing the worst case and then bitching that Trump isn't acting as if the worst case is upon us. It isn't and he shouldn't. Trump and his admin has

 

added appropriate actions as the status on the ground has changed. It's a constantly changing battle and it requires a constantly changing strategy dictated by the facts on the ground and so far Trump admin, state and most local officials are doing well in handling it.

 

Okay, now you have a different option instead of panic "we are all going to die" and "this is nothing it's not as big as the Flu or a common cold" Hope this helps calm some people and to increase others concern so we all get to a stable state and can take the needed actions

[Bodysurf]

It would still come in 3rd place in the Trinity League.

[Horsefly]

7 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Covid-19 #OIAGV

Below is a good read

 

People don't seem to understand a couple points about the China virus and why all of this effort is being made when it's only infected a very small % and killed even less than that small %. 98-99% survive it. It's really simple to understand. There are three main reasons:

1:35 PM · Mar 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

 

 

Replying to

@unseen1_unseen

1. The reproduction data on the china virus. (R0) The (RO) for the Covid-19 is high about 1.6-2.6 according to the Lancet or a avg of 2.1(RO)

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international...

 

thelancet.com

 

 

To put this in context the Spanish Flu had an (RO) of about 1.8 and other pandemics had an avg anywhere between 1.4-1.8 (RO) ) and non-pandemic seasonal FLU is less than 1.28(RO) according to the NCI https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25186370#:~:text=The%20median%20R%20value%20for%20seasonal%20influenza%20was%201.28%20

(IQR,six%20R%20values%20were%20%3C1.

 

 

As the above data shows this virus has the POTENTIAL to surpass the Spanish FLu in the amount of people impacted "if nothing is done". The lancet article estimates that when China placed travel restrictions it decreased the 2.1(RO) to around 1 or less.

 

In other words, these actions are being taken because the POTENTIAL of the contagion infecting large percent of the population is high if nothing is done. This is where you get the "scary" numbers of people talking about 60-70% of the population being infected.

 

The people pushing those numbers are correct but they leave out the part of "if nothing is done". As we have seen in China, South Korea, Japan, Europe and now the USA things are being done and that (Ro) has dropped and should continue to drop as long as active measures are used.

 

So, while the POTENTIAL is there for 60-70% of the population to be infected it won't happen because of the measures being taken. Humans tend to be that way when forced with worst case scenarios; they take steps to make sure it doesn't happen.

2. The Covid-19 has a high death rate compared to influenza. This isn't the Flu. Current estimates of the death rate is 1% or 10 times higher than the FLU. That number will most likely come down as more mild cases are found. South Korea is showing about a 0.7% DR(7times higher)

 

Since this virus is new, there is no human immunity to it. That will come as people get infected and overcome the virus but as of now there is no human immunity to it in the population. There is also no vaccine nor any medicine to help fight against it, yet. Those will come too.

 

 

3. Due to the above the china virus requires a large % of the infected to seek hospital care.

 

No immunity, vaccine, drugs and the fact that virus impacts the lungs, estimates are that 20% of the cases need some type of hospitalization. Remember 98-99% of the people who get this survive but that is with hospitalization (80% don't need hospitalization)

 

So the worst case is that the virus spreads to 60-70% of the population, the hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate goes up causing widespread death in the older generations( those 50 and over). Of course all of this isn't going to happen because humans step in to avoid

 

...the worst case. This is where the fake media is failing the public. They are not giving you the information that where humans have stepped in, like in China/SK the (RO) decreased from pandemic level to less than normal flu levels. That when quarantines/travel limitations are

 

...adopted like Trump is doing the % of the population infected is not 60-70% but less than 1% and the death rate is lowered as those that need hospital care receive it. So you can't compare this with the Flu because the POTENTIAL of this virus to cause death and mayhem is

 

several times higher than the avg Flu season. However, That POTENTIAL will remain only a POTENTIAL as long as the proper steps are taken. As Of been saying for a month or so now. It's a concern, not a panic. those pushing the worst case without context like the fake media

 

...are causing a panic where there is no need but those saying it's not a concern and it's an overreaction are not factoring in the POTENTIAL if we do nothing. This china virus requires a measured response, not a panic. Closing down large gatherings and limiting contact

in infected areas is a smart move. Closing down the borders to limit the ability of this virus to spread unknowingly in the country is also a smart idea. Closing down the entire country isn't a smart move, it's an overreaction. Once testing is online most of the country can go

 

back to normal expect for large gatherings and the response can concentrate on as the infected clusters showing community spread. I see nothing wrong with people buying extra supplies to be prepared. Buying six cases of toilet paper is an overreaction.

 

President Trump and his administration have done a good job in explaining the context. the fake media have been terribly only pushing the worst case and then bitching that Trump isn't acting as if the worst case is upon us. It isn't and he shouldn't. Trump and his admin has

 

added appropriate actions as the status on the ground has changed. It's a constantly changing battle and it requires a constantly changing strategy dictated by the facts on the ground and so far Trump admin, state and most local officials are doing well in handling it.

 

Okay, now you have a different option instead of panic "we are all going to die" and "this is nothing it's not as big as the Flu or a common cold" Hope this helps calm some people and to increase others concern so we all get to a stable state and can take the needed actions

No he has not, he sat up there on his ass and minimized the impact and overstated our ability in containing it.  He definitely was in the “this is nothing it’s not as big deal as the the flu” crowd and he stated so on national tv 

[abbatt]

The mindless dysfunctional masses are the big x-factor here. They are so dis-connected with our Planet and themselves it`s pathetic. They know everything about their technology but can`t tell you where their organs are in their body.

Big pharma runs the whole show...they control government...FDA...CDC.. google....news..healthcare.etc.etc.etc.

All of our govts. responses are carefully worded and controlled by big pharmas iron fist......

The standard American diet...aptly abbreviated as sad.....contains very little moisture......gmo meat....grains ...heavily processed food are all very dry and acidic......add to that that most people don`t drink enough clean water....and you create a breeding ground for many diseases to enter and raise havoc.

For most people ,,movement is limited to sitting...standing....lying down and a minimum of walking.Today most 25 yr olds couldn`t do what 60 yr old people did 100 plus yrs ago.

Eating a plant-based diet....making homemade Kefir.....Yogurt....cultured/fermented vegetables is essential to maintain superior health.

75% of our immune system is in our gut...you must nourish and feed it with healthy...naturally created pre-biotics and pro-biotics.

Because western health-care is completely symptomatic in it`s approach...again dictated by big pharma.....it is not designed for a person to be healthy....but rather to become dependent and addicted to their meds...pharmaceuticals ...and anti-biotic protocols.

The masses are further numbed by the use of flouride and chlorine ...which shuts down the Pineal gland.....pituitary gland and disrupts the signals between cells.

I could go on for pages and pages......but it comes down to each individual waking up to themselves and what`s really going on. in the world.

Be a deep diver in the infinite waters.....don`t accept anything as gospel...stop being so lazy and take the time to educate yourself about what you are and how you function.

The Animals don`t deserve our ignorance and arrogance....

 

 

[noonereal]

7 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Covid-19 #OIAGV

Below is a good read

 

People don't seem to understand a couple points about the China virus and why all of this effort is being made when it's only infected a very small % and killed even less than that small %. 98-99% survive it. It's really simple to understand. There are three main reasons:

1:35 PM · Mar 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

 

 

Replying to

@unseen1_unseen

1. The reproduction data on the china virus. (R0) The (RO) for the Covid-19 is high about 1.6-2.6 according to the Lancet or a avg of 2.1(RO)

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international...

 

thelancet.com

 

 

To put this in context the Spanish Flu had an (RO) of about 1.8 and other pandemics had an avg anywhere between 1.4-1.8 (RO) ) and non-pandemic seasonal FLU is less than 1.28(RO) according to the NCI https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25186370#:~:text=The%20median%20R%20value%20for%20seasonal%20influenza%20was%201.28%20

(IQR,six%20R%20values%20were%20%3C1.

 

 

As the above data shows this virus has the POTENTIAL to surpass the Spanish FLu in the amount of people impacted "if nothing is done". The lancet article estimates that when China placed travel restrictions it decreased the 2.1(RO) to around 1 or less.

 

In other words, these actions are being taken because the POTENTIAL of the contagion infecting large percent of the population is high if nothing is done. This is where you get the "scary" numbers of people talking about 60-70% of the population being infected.

 

The people pushing those numbers are correct but they leave out the part of "if nothing is done". As we have seen in China, South Korea, Japan, Europe and now the USA things are being done and that (Ro) has dropped and should continue to drop as long as active measures are used.

 

So, while the POTENTIAL is there for 60-70% of the population to be infected it won't happen because of the measures being taken. Humans tend to be that way when forced with worst case scenarios; they take steps to make sure it doesn't happen.

2. The Covid-19 has a high death rate compared to influenza. This isn't the Flu. Current estimates of the death rate is 1% or 10 times higher than the FLU. That number will most likely come down as more mild cases are found. South Korea is showing about a 0.7% DR(7times higher)

 

Since this virus is new, there is no human immunity to it. That will come as people get infected and overcome the virus but as of now there is no human immunity to it in the population. There is also no vaccine nor any medicine to help fight against it, yet. Those will come too.

 

 

3. Due to the above the china virus requires a large % of the infected to seek hospital care.

 

No immunity, vaccine, drugs and the fact that virus impacts the lungs, estimates are that 20% of the cases need some type of hospitalization. Remember 98-99% of the people who get this survive but that is with hospitalization (80% don't need hospitalization)

 

So the worst case is that the virus spreads to 60-70% of the population, the hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate goes up causing widespread death in the older generations( those 50 and over). Of course all of this isn't going to happen because humans step in to avoid

 

...the worst case. This is where the fake media is failing the public. They are not giving you the information that where humans have stepped in, like in China/SK the (RO) decreased from pandemic level to less than normal flu levels. That when quarantines/travel limitations are

 

...adopted like Trump is doing the % of the population infected is not 60-70% but less than 1% and the death rate is lowered as those that need hospital care receive it. So you can't compare this with the Flu because the POTENTIAL of this virus to cause death and mayhem is

 

several times higher than the avg Flu season. However, That POTENTIAL will remain only a POTENTIAL as long as the proper steps are taken. As Of been saying for a month or so now. It's a concern, not a panic. those pushing the worst case without context like the fake media

 

...are causing a panic where there is no need but those saying it's not a concern and it's an overreaction are not factoring in the POTENTIAL if we do nothing. This china virus requires a measured response, not a panic. Closing down large gatherings and limiting contact

in infected areas is a smart move. Closing down the borders to limit the ability of this virus to spread unknowingly in the country is also a smart idea. Closing down the entire country isn't a smart move, it's an overreaction. Once testing is online most of the country can go

 

back to normal expect for large gatherings and the response can concentrate on as the infected clusters showing community spread. I see nothing wrong with people buying extra supplies to be prepared. Buying six cases of toilet paper is an overreaction.

 

President Trump and his administration have done a good job in explaining the context. the fake media have been terribly only pushing the worst case and then bitching that Trump isn't acting as if the worst case is upon us. It isn't and he shouldn't. Trump and his admin has

 

added appropriate actions as the status on the ground has changed. It's a constantly changing battle and it requires a constantly changing strategy dictated by the facts on the ground and so far Trump admin, state and most local officials are doing well in handling it.

 

Okay, now you have a different option instead of panic "we are all going to die" and "this is nothing it's not as big as the Flu or a common cold" Hope this helps calm some people and to increase others concern so we all get to a stable state and can take the needed actions

i always knew you were a little jerk but not till now did i realize you were a complete ass hole

[Sammyswordsman]

2 hours ago, noonereal said:

i always knew you were a little jerk but not till now did i realize you were a complete ass hole

Always knew you despise a well written piece that contradicts your insufferable delusion of world view superiority 

[Sammyswordsman]

4 hours ago, Horsefly said:

No he has not, he sat up there on his ass and minimized the impact and overstated our ability in containing it.  He definitely was in the “this is nothing it’s not as big deal as the the flu” crowd and he stated so on national tv 

Happy to see you’re  trying to use big words

[Horsefly]

12 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Happy to see you’re  trying to use big words

I’m not a user of sesquipedalianism for the sole purpose of being pretentious.  I’d much rather my word choice be precise and efficient. 

[thc6795]

5 hours ago, Horsefly said:

No he has not, he sat up there on his ass and minimized the impact and overstated our ability in containing it.  He definitely was in the “this is nothing it’s not as big deal as the the flu” crowd and he stated so on national tv 

Yea the fuck he should have waited until at least a milion people died then took action. 

[concha]

3 minutes ago, thc6795 said:

Yea the fuck he should have waited until at least a milion people died then took action. 

 

We're only a few short weeks into this and this is all these clowns can do.

We had travel restrictions on the source country and a public medical emergency declared in January.  The reaction of the opposition?  He is attacked as a bigot who is acting prematurely.  The hypocrisy is galactic in scale.

Since then, we've had a much more robust financial reaction than with H1N1 under the last guy.

We've added new travel restrictions on the new epicenter of the disease (Europe).

Within 2 days of the WHO declaration of pandemic, we had a national emergency declared.  The equivalent reaction under the last guy took well over 4 MONTHS, when MILLIONS were already infected with H1N1 and people were dying across the nation.

 

[Horsefly]

9 minutes ago, thc6795 said:

Yea the fuck he should have waited until at least a milion people died then took action. 

No, he should have responded with measures we have in place now, months ago instead of telling us it was a democratic hoax and that it would all pass and it’s under control.  He did nothing the first month and after we knew it was spreading in Europe 

[thc6795]

1 hour ago, Horsefly said:

No, he should have responded with measures we have in place now, months ago instead of telling us it was a democratic hoax and that it would all pass and it’s under control.  He did nothing the first month and after we knew it was spreading in Europe 

So he should have done nothing for the next 6 months like the last guy did?

[Horsefly]

Just now, thc6795 said:

So he should have done nothing for the next 6 months like the last guy did?

That’s not what I said.  What we are doing now with the aggressive containment, quarantining and limiting contact with PSAs reminding people of the importance of these policies should have been done back in Jan-Feb time frame.  

this probably would have been done sooner had he not dismantled his pandemic response team back in 2018.  

[Bormio]

Armchair quarterbacking is so easy.  And so useless.  Something people on a HSFB board should understand.

[Blueliner]

1 hour ago, concha said:

 

We're only a few short weeks into this and this is all these clowns can do.

We had travel restrictions on the source country and a public medical emergency declared in January.  The reaction of the opposition?  He is attacked as a bigot who is acting prematurely.  The hypocrisy is galactic in scale.

Since then, we've had a much more robust financial reaction than with H1N1 under the last guy.

We've added new travel restrictions on the new epicenter of the disease (Europe).

Within 2 days of the WHO declaration of pandemic, we had a national emergency declared.  The equivalent reaction under the last guy took well over 4 MONTHS, when MILLIONS were already infected with H1N1 and people were dying across the nation.

 

Your post is spot on. These guys just won't accept basic facts. They're going to go down with the ship on the whole "he told us it was no big deal" crap. My conspiracy theories may be debunked one day, but these facts you presented never will.

[AztecPadre]

Damn, I know where a wall would be really saving us and it's not at the southern border, but at the border between OT side and HSFB side.  

[Horsefly]

9 minutes ago, Bormio said:

Armchair quarterbacking is so easy.  And so useless.  Something people on a HSFB board should understand.

Evaluating president’s performance is what people do as a pasttime.  So why the words of wisdom now?  I never read this advice with the onslaught of Obama bashing and what he shoulda, coulda done during his administration. 

[thc6795]

13 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

Evaluating president’s performance is what people do as a pasttime.  So why the words of wisdom now?  I never read this advice with the onslaught of Obama bashing and what he shoulda, coulda done during his administration. 

I never read anything you posted saying he did anything wrong either

[Horsefly]

1 minute ago, thc6795 said:

I never read anything you posted saying he did anything wrong either

Who is “he”?    

[thc6795]

1 minute ago, Horsefly said:

Who is “he”?    

Saint Obama

[Horsefly]

10 minutes ago, thc6795 said:

Saint Obama

I like to discuss current administrations, it’s relevant to current events and issues.  As a reference you don’t hear me bash the Clintons and Bush neither. 

[thc6795]

3 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

I like to discuss current administrations, it’s relevant to current events and issues.  As a reference you don’t hear me bash the Clintons and Bush neither. 

I knew you would say that. Easy way out. when Obama was in charge I was here as were you. Again back then you didnt say shit. 

[noonereal]

3 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Always knew you despise a well written piece that contradicts your insufferable delusion of world view superiority 

you should have asked, i would have told ya 

[Horsefly]

15 minutes ago, thc6795 said:

I knew you would say that. Easy way out. when Obama was in charge I was here as were you. Again back then you didnt say shit. 

I believe the OT threads were created in ‘17....during trumps presidency 

nice diversion, but we’ll stick to current events.  Trump is under the spotlight now.  

[I AM IRONMAN]

2 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

I believe the OT threads were created in ‘17....during trumps presidency 

nice diversion, but we’ll stick to current events.  Trump is under the spotlight now.  

You mean the negative spotlight..lots of you on here just like the msm refuse to give him an ounce of credit for the tons of great things he has done over the past 3+ years