golfaddict1 Posted October 26, 2021 Report Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 hours ago, dntn31 said: Someone needs to pester Ned until he corrects GA. Is there a suggestion box? Ned, You need another calibration update… you’ve got GA boosted to Volume 11 (Spinal Tap reference 😉). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodysurf Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 IMG drops to #8 in Calpreps after their uninspiring performance last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GardenStateBaller Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 On 10/30/2021 at 8:31 AM, Bodysurf said: IMG drops to #8 in Calpreps after their uninspiring performance last night. Still #2 in MP and #4 in HSFBA. Looking fwd to the SFA game on 11/19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodysurf Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said: Still #2 in MP and #4 in HSFBA. Looking fwd to the SFA game on 11/19. You’ve seen both teams. Which one do you like in this game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GardenStateBaller Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, Bodysurf said: You’ve seen both teams. Which one do you like in this game? IMG in a close one at home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2021 Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishspinners Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 On 8/26/2021 at 2:32 PM, GardenStateBaller said: MLK isn't even a T25 team in MI. #4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-08 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cossacks Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, dntn31 said: Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-08 Santa Margarita at 37?😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, Cossacks said: Santa Margarita at 37?😂 It's because there is a lot of consensus among the top ~30 teams, so the outliers in the computers are in the 30-45 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 minute ago, dntn31 said: It's because there is a lot of consensus among the top ~30 teams, so the outliers in the computers are in the 30-45 range. Look at all of the "NR"s on the right side: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cossacks Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, dntn31 said: Look at all of the "NR"s on the right side: I did see that. But I have watched them play. Not not even a top 15 team in California IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Cossacks said: I did see that. But I have watched them play. Not not even a top 15 team in California IMO. They are definitely not a top 50 team in the country. Maybe top 15 in CA. They did give Los Alamitos their only loss, but got waxed by every other good team they played. They are going to lose to Servite by ~3 TDs this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cossacks Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, dntn31 said: They are definitely not a top 50 team in the country. Maybe top 15 in CA. They did give Los Alamitos their only loss, but got waxed by every other good team they played. They are going to lose to Servite by ~3 TDs this week. You are way more in the know on these polls. I’ve recently just started looking at them. On the Norcal board someone was talking about using rankings for their picks. I have not been on Calpreps in several years. Looked at it a few times, years ago didn’t do much for me either way. I guess its a tool. I wasn’t overly impressed with it, so I never have gone overly in one direction to defend it or slam it. I will read and laugh at some of these ad nauseam posts about Calpreps and adjustments, starting points, a bunch of shit I honestly I don’t know what their talking about most the time and I am either very impressed or scared someone would spend that much time going into detail about it 😂. I am not a numbers or math guy for sure. C- was my math wheelhouse 😂. I’ll do a little research and am way more an eyeballs 👀 guy and what I see or read about. Even betting lines and trends, I don’t throw to much stock in it. Then again my usual results (not this year so far) of being in the cellar looking up in some of these contests maybe it’s time for a new strategy. I’d say I’d look into @imaGoodBoyNowstragedy but I think he puts in more work then me 😂. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 32 minutes ago, Cossacks said: You are way more in the know on these polls. I’ve recently just started looking at them. On the Norcal board someone was talking about using rankings for their picks. I have not been on Calpreps in several years. Looked at it a few times, years ago didn’t do much for me either way. I guess its a tool. I wasn’t overly impressed with it, so I never have gone overly in one direction to defend it or slam it. I will read and laugh at some of these ad nauseam posts about Calpreps and adjustments, starting points, a bunch of shit I honestly I don’t know what their talking about most the time and I am either very impressed or scared someone would spend that much time going into detail about it 😂. I am not a numbers or math guy for sure. C- was my math wheelhouse 😂. I’ll do a little research and am way more an eyeballs 👀 guy and what I see or read about. Even betting lines and trends, I don’t throw to much stock in it. Then again my usual results (not this year so far) of being in the cellar looking up in some of these contests maybe it’s time for a new strategy. I’d say I’d look into @imaGoodBoyNowstragedy but I think he puts in more work then me 😂. Like with everything, you gotta take CalPreps and Massey (I won't include Fisher here, because I'm still not 100% convinced that his "proprietary algorithm" has anything to do with information science or even computers) with a grain of salt. CalPreps and Massey both attempt to provide an objective, holistic overview of all 15K national teams which doesn't really exist anywhere else (to my knowledge). Do they get it right on the whole? I think so, for the most part. Are they perfect? No one would argue that. They tend to work well on macro scales but tend to break down a bit more on micro scales and those break downs are a bit more extreme at the very ends of the bell curves. Humans can introduce a bit more nuance into their rankings but with that also comes bias (and sometimes laziness). What I'm doing with the comp poll is a bit like what the BCS was doing for college football before the current playoff system - nothing gets it perfect by itself but if you take everything and compile it together you tend to get something better than the sum of its parts. I've been tracking both Massey and CalPreps for the pickem to serve as a benchmark. Unfortunately, CalPreps stopped providing actual projections for games until October 1 so I had to use their more imprecise "project a matchup" tool until then (this partially qualifies their poor performance). I think (some) humans are at better evaluating and predicting games on smaller scales than the computers (we're both beating both Massey and CalPreps in our pickems), but both Massey and CalPreps are able to predict thousands of games (mostly between teams that I've never heard of) at over 80% success rate. I don't think any human would be able to do that... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omaha Vol Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, dntn31 said: They are going to lose to Servite by ~3 TDs this week. ….and Mission Viejo lost to them 40-7. Servite would beat most teams outside the top 25 by 3 TDs. SM is, realistically, top 9-15 in CA and top 55-85 in the nation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 28 minutes ago, Omaha Vol said: ….and Mission Viejo lost to them 40-7. Servite would beat most teams outside the top 25 by 3 TDs. SM is, realistically, top 9-15 in CA and top 55-85 in the nation. MV actually lost 44-7, but I think if they played again the score would be closer. SM is a tough one because they lost to Norco by 3 scores but beat Los Al by 3 scores. I think they are better than their Norco loss and worse than their Los Al win. Beating OLU on the last possession of a home game is a bit more calibrated for how good they really are, imho. It makes it a bit more difficult to gauge because the top 3/4 teams in CA really are on another level (a different tier if you will). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 How Calpreps has done on projections for every state http://calpreps.com/2021/projection_accuracy.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HooverOutlaw Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Funny that massey does not have the Hoover vs Hewitt game listed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, HooverOutlaw said: Funny that massey does not have the Hoover vs Hewitt game listed. It looks like it might be a bug. The previous Servite/Santa Margarita game isn't listed either. This must be fairly recent, because I've definitely seen both games of rematches appearing on Massey before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HooverOutlaw Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, dntn31 said: It looks like it might be a bug. The previous Servite/Santa Margarita game isn't listed either. This must be fairly recent, because I've definitely seen both games of rematches appearing on Massey before. I emailed him about it maybe they will add it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2021 Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HooverOutlaw Posted November 17, 2021 Report Share Posted November 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, dntn31 said: Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-15 Massey added the Hewitt regular season game and took off Hoover's win over Thompson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, HooverOutlaw said: Massey added the Hewitt regular season game and took off Hoover's win over Thompson. Ya, it's a rematch game bug with Massey. It's the case for a bunch of teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted November 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Comp Poll: Updated 2021-11-22 I was waiting for SB Live to release their Power 25 football rankings. I reached out to Connor Morrissette on Twitter and he told me that he wouldn't be publishing football rankings until the end of the season (December 20), but these would have been his rankings this week had they been published: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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