St. John Bosco 28 vs. Mater Dei 0 (F)

[181pl]

not sure but it has occurred several years in a row..

[golfaddict1]

On 10/15/2023 at 7:58 PM, golfaddict1 said:

The one sticking point I had in regards to a decision of risk points added to the losing team. 

Just an fyi as the differential in the SJB-MD game was 28 pts. 
My cap in this novelty tool creation was at 28.  
In this ex, certainly MD earned full risk points per 

Of the 3 algorithms used for my peel the onion power ratings novelty piggyback tool, HSFA is the weakest imho.  

I adjusted my 10 minute creation to 300 as a column as HSFA I can retrieve Fisher’s top 300. 

It is a one man show and each school takes time to analyze and finalize.   Thats why (like in the past) I’ll just use @dntn31’s comp poll entries. 

But I will take requests (time permitting)  

Starting from the bottom 4, for sure I had/have a MC issue of risk points.  Their one quality win earned 12 pts and their losses combined total earning 85 pts, incl 40 pts earned vs BG alone.  
 

Assuming better wins ahead, I used all risk points max for MC. 

[golfaddict1]

I’ll keep editing and adding schools from bottom up today (time permitting) or tomorrow.  If any ratings from CP change overnight, so be it.  

Once I setup the entries in excel and have a foundation, with manually written backup to reference in following weeks and adjust… should be a less time consuming exercise.  
 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/11gg4Kif3BaiqUXJx8gLJmxRACuEfqDVF/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel
 

 

Pts/games/avg

OLGC - 76/4/19

Newton GA - 60/2/30

Miami Central - 97/4/24 *

Central AL - 44/3/15

Centennial AZ - 42/2/21

Thompson  - 35/3/12

McCallie - 20/1/20

Brownsburg - 60/3/20

Katy - 16/1/16

Center Grove - 20/1/20

Providence Day - 20/1/20

American Fork - 94/6/16

Cherry Creek - 0/0/0

Liberty AZ - 52/2/26

Cocoa - 112/5/22 *

Aledo - 42/2/21

Carrollton - 42/3/14

Serra (San Mateo) - 40/2/20

Saraland - 0/0/0

Belleville, MI - 0/0/0

BC- 59/3/20 *

Archbishop Hoban - 12/1/12

SLC - 0/0/0

Bixby - 0/0/0

Norland - 56/3/19

Corner Canyon - 51/3/17 *

St Edward - 120/4/30

Atascocita - 80/3/27

Cen10 CA - 172/5/34 *

Westlake TX - 52/3/17

AHP - 71/4/18

Sierra Canyon - 56/4/14

Massillon Wash. - 104/3/35

Walton GA - 62/3/21

Buford - 89/3/30

Colquitt County - 42/2/21

Kahuku - 152/3/51 *

STA - 101/4/25 *

SJP - 48/3/16

Desoto - 52/3/17

Mill Creek - 116/4/29

North Shore - 60/3/20

IMG - 106/3/35

Duncanville - 32/2/16

Mater Dei - 312/9/35

Cham.-Madonna - 168/5/34

SJB - 292/7/42

BG - 176/5/35

[Adam_MD_Alum]

On 10/17/2023 at 6:56 PM, Duckburghsfinest1987 said:

lets say if MD wins the rest of the games for the remainder of this season, wins the possible rematch with Bosco and eventually the state title, can MD still win a Natty, an MNC this year? as in, be similiar to how the 2018 season was for MD? and how the reverse was for Bosco in 2019 and last year?

Or are the circumstances different this time? Is Bishop Gorman the main effect, difference this time, as in, if BG remains undefeated for the remainder of their season, will BG then be the odds on favorite to win the Natty, MNC?

This article right here says it would be extreme difficult for MD to win the Natty, MNC now:

https://usatodayhss.com/2023/st-john-bosco-shuts-out-mater-dei

what it says:

"Even if Mater Dei wins the Southern Section Division 1 championship, in which they may need to face the Braves again, a loss like this will be nearly impossible to recover for national championships consideration."

I’d say SJB has a better chance to win a piece of natty than MD (all things equal, assuming either can win out).  IMO, 28-0 loss is worse than narrow loss to Hawaii team (different than what played out years ago).

Anything’s possible, but at this point all roads appear to run thru Gorman and it’d be hard to not crown Geico winner of two Top 5 undefeated teams. 

[THEOC89]

23 hours ago, Adam_MD_Alum said:

I’d say SJB has a better chance to win a piece of natty than MD (all things equal, assuming either can win out).  IMO, 28-0 loss is worse than narrow loss to Hawaii team (different than what played out years ago).

Anything’s possible, but at this point all roads appear to run thru Gorman and it’d be hard to not crown Geico winner of two Top 5 undefeated teams. 

I agree, there is No chance whatsoever of MD winning any piece of the Natty with that loss to SJB by 4TD’s….

Th difference from a few years ago was that MD Beat IMG that was a consensus Top 3 team…. They don’t have any wins of that quality this year….

[dntn31]

30 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

I agree, there is No chance whatsoever of MD winning any piece of the Natty with that loss to SJB by 4TD’s….

Th difference from a few years ago was that MD Beat IMG that was a consensus Top 3 team…. They don’t have any wins of that quality this year….

MD is *currently* #1 in Massey...

[THEOC89]

34 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

MD is *currently* #1 in Massey...

So you’re saying there’s a chance?!?!… 🤣🤣

[golfaddict1]

SJC @ DeMatha 8 pm est ESPN2 fyi.  

[Atticus Finch]

15 hours ago, dntn31 said:

MD is *currently* #1 in Massey...

And will be #1 in calpreps if they win out.

Why is this so hard for some of them to accept?

[Adam_MD_Alum]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:59 PM, dntn31 said:

Saw him limping off after that first series. Hope he's OK.

Any update on the injury? MD is a totally different animal with JD in the backfield?

[Adam_MD_Alum]

On 10/13/2023 at 11:39 PM, HurricaneNick said:

I’d like to blame it all on the OC, but Elijah has just looked off this year. Not the same kid that threw it all over the yard against some of the best teams in the country. I’m sure when I watch tonight’s game I’ll feel the same way. 

Maybe off-game, looked hesitant, or not used to next level coverage this year, or impacted by not having #1 RB in the game making throws more predictable playing from behind entire game.                                  
I don’t care what others think ~ MD defense is elite. That said, it’s a game of marginal proficiency and getting blanked is irrefutable. EB’s also shown consistency in the past and MD is deeper personal-wise this year. 

I put blame on the OC. No excuse for being unable to at least put 7 on the board. Gameplan has to adapt - JD goes down, get QB in motion w/ short passes. 3rd and 10, two-down chunk plays to convert on 4th (MD-way). They weren’t ready for the smoke..up to coaches to change that. 

[Duckburghsfinest1987]

On 10/19/2023 at 2:25 PM, Adam_MD_Alum said:

I’d say SJB has a better chance to win a piece of natty than MD (all things equal, assuming either can win out).  IMO, 28-0 loss is worse than narrow loss to Hawaii team (different than what played out years ago).

Anything’s possible, but at this point all roads appear to run thru Gorman and it’d be hard to not crown Geico winner of two Top 5 undefeated teams. 

ya because i assume MD's loss to Bosco this year, 28-0, is worse than how they lost to them in 2018 in the regular season. But MD has bragging rights over Bosco ever since both programs became what they are currently.

MD has won a Natty, MNC while having an undefeated season twice, 2017 and 2021, Bosco, just 2013, but that 2013 Bosco team was nowhere as decorated as the 2017 and 2021 MD teams.

[Adam_MD_Alum]

We’re in alignment; 28-0 is a statement and momentum call-to-arms. We shall see my friend. 

[Duckburghsfinest1987]

On 10/21/2023 at 7:11 PM, Adam_MD_Alum said:

We’re in alignment; 28-0 is a statement and momentum call-to-arms. We shall see my friend. 

so i assume the circumstances are different this time, as in, lets say if MD manages to win the rest of all of their remaining games, including the playoffs, it will be much more difficult for MD to win another Natty, MNC, like compared to their 2018 season was when they lost to Bosco in the regular season but won the rematch in the post-season?

 

Im assuming Bishop Gorman is the main difference this time, that is, if BG manages to remain undefeated for the rest of their season.

[Adam_MD_Alum]

On 10/25/2023 at 4:26 PM, Duckburghsfinest1987 said:

so i assume the circumstances are different this time, as in, lets say if MD manages to win the rest of all of their remaining games, including the playoffs, it will be much more difficult for MD to win another Natty, MNC, like compared to their 2018 season was when they lost to Bosco in the regular season but won the rematch in the post-season?

 

Im assuming Bishop Gorman is the main difference this time, that is, if BG manages to remain undefeated for the rest of their season.

100%

most likely scenario ~ BG goes undefeated ~ crowned MNC

Only scenario (least likely) where SJB has a chance, is if they win out AND ChaMadonna loses in playoffs AND BG looses to a 1-loss team in Geico.

MD would need above to happen AND blow-out SJB (unlikely).

And, even then it’s not unfathomable an Undefeated TX team has a better claim over the above hypothetical 1-loss teams (North Shore or De Soto).

 

[Duckburghsfinest1987]

On 10/29/2023 at 6:26 AM, Adam_MD_Alum said:

100%

most likely scenario ~ BG goes undefeated ~ crowned MNC

Only scenario (least likely) where SJB has a chance, is if they win out AND ChaMadonna loses in playoffs AND BG looses to a 1-loss team in Geico.

MD would need above to happen AND blow-out SJB (unlikely).

And, even then it’s not unfathomable an Undefeated TX team has a better claim over the above hypothetical 1-loss teams (North Shore or De Soto).

 

and lets say if the reverse was to occur for Bosco, if Bosco remains undefeated for the remainder of their season, will it be equally as difficult for them to win the Natty, MNC, just like for MD?

[CaliNorth]

2 hours ago, Duckburghsfinest1987 said:

and lets say if the reverse was to occur for Bosco, if Bosco remains undefeated for the remainder of their season, will it be equally as difficult for them to win the Natty, MNC, just like for MD?

I have a hard time just handing the mnc title to BG just because they didn't lose a game . Here we are arguing about the seedings for the cif and which brackets to place teams in, bringing  up the facts, for example, on the merits of Poly being a good team with a 9-1 record . They haven't beaten anyone who is very good. Who the hell has BG beaten ?  Their best win will be against a 3, possibly 4 loss team in a 2nd tier MC .  Corner Canyon, cen10, please !  This day and age there is no back dooring your way into a mnc. You have to take on some tier 1 heavies to argue your case . SJB , if they beat MD again, they will have beaten 4 tier one giants :  STA , MD twice, SFA .  Then they will also have beaten cen10 or SC, and played a top 10 Kahuka . Not to mention the  trinity league where all those teams are good , just having the misfortune of having to play each other and the top 2 teams in the country . The difference between the schedule that MD and SJB have vs BG is light years different. Really, in todays high school landscape, The MNc runs thru those 2 and to have any legitimacy to a claim, you have to at minimum schedule one of them . That the reality, but I know people don't or won't accept that fact . They will argue blue in the face to the contrary, but everyone knows . That is why a lot of teams don't want to schedule them

[Adam_MD_Alum]

10 hours ago, CaliNorth said:

I have a hard time just handing the mnc title to BG just because they didn't lose a game . Here we are arguing about the seedings for the cif and which brackets to place teams in, bringing  up the facts, for example, on the merits of Poly being a good team with a 9-1 record . They haven't beaten anyone who is very good. Who the hell has BG beaten ?  Their best win will be against a 3, possibly 4 loss team in a 2nd tier MC .  Corner Canyon, cen10, please !  This day and age there is no back dooring your way into a mnc. You have to take on some tier 1 heavies to argue your case . SJB , if they beat MD again, they will have beaten 4 tier one giants :  STA , MD twice, SFA .  Then they will also have beaten cen10 or SC, and played a top 10 Kahuka . Not to mention the  trinity league where all those teams are good , just having the misfortune of having to play each other and the top 2 teams in the country . The difference between the schedule that MD and SJB have vs BG is light years different. Really, in today’s high school landscape, The MNc runs thru those 2 and to have any legitimacy to a claim, you have to at minimum schedule one of them . That the reality, but I know people don't or won't accept that fact . They will argue blue in the face to the contrary, but everyone knows . That is why a lot of teams don't want to schedule them

While I agree with everything you said above, they did lose a game to Kahuka, albeit under questionable circumstances. The answer is unfortunately never going to be binary if your top tier winning teams have 1-loss vs. an undefeated Tier-2 team. I do agree that SJB has the better case for a piece of MNC than MD if they win out. I also think MD will get a very small piece of MNC if they win out (calpreps, Massey), but I’m not sure alums would count that as deserving a natty ring (same thing happened in 2020 undefeated 5-game Covid season), I for one have ruled out MD this year and am focused on beating SJB and CIF. 

[Bodysurf]

11 hours ago, CaliNorth said:

IYou have to take on some tier 1 heavies to argue your case . SJB , if they beat MD again, they will have beaten 4 tier one giants :  STA , MD twice, SFA .  

SFA is not a 'tier 1 heavy' this season. Miami Central is a better win than SFA this season. Kahuku is way above SFA also. Maybe not for the past few years, but definitely this year. 

[CaliNorth]

55 minutes ago, Bodysurf said:

SFA is not a 'tier 1 heavy' this season. Miami Central is a better win than SFA this season. Kahuku is way above SFA also. Maybe not for the past few years, but definitely this year. 

When I say tier 1 , I am putting the tenured group of SFA, IMG, STA, MD, SJB ,  Can anyone of this group have a down year ?

Yes . What these teams have that others don't, is the upside potential due to their immense wealth of talent . They can play down to the level of a lesser opponent like SFA has this season , but when it comes time to play one of the other heavies they have a gear that most teams don't . There are no trap games between these teams when they play each other . You are going to get the best effort out of them, usually at a very high level . SFA was down last season. This season they had a better group potentially, and they scheduled to win the mnc . They probably bit off more than they can chew, and should have maybe scheduled a couple of less challenging games opening up the season so that they could assimilate all that talent into a team, rather than just a collection of talent . Any one who is willing to play them will pay the price afterward because that is a punishing physical team . I will say after last season and this one, they, along with IMG, are kind of fringe tier 1 . STA had some bumps earlier, but it would be hard to bet against them now that they are rolling. It's too bad that we can't see them play CM of even MC in FLA playoffs to get more clarity . MC is a tenured tier 2 team . I can recall maybe one season where I would call them in that tier 1 group . Kahuka, imop, would not beat SFA now. Maybe earlier in season . 

Getting back to BG and their win over MC, yes, that was a good win . But , using tennis terminology, that was a series 1000 win, not a grand slam win. In fact, they didn't schedule any grand slams , just series 1000 and 500 .  And going by the eye test, it is not really clear if they were better than MC , maybe by the slimmest of margins . And it was a home game, rested, and not coming off the heals of playing a juggernaut. Everything was in their favor and they did not look so great in their signature game of the season . 

[CaliNorth]

3 hours ago, Adam_MD_Alum said:

While I agree with everything you said above, they did lose a game to Kahuka, albeit under questionable circumstances. The answer is unfortunately never going to be binary if your top tier winning teams have 1-loss vs. an undefeated Tier-2 team. I do agree that SJB has the better case for a piece of MNC than MD if they win out. I also think MD will get a very small piece of MNC if they win out (calpreps, Massey), but I’m not sure alums would count that as deserving a natty ring (same thing happened in 2020 undefeated 5-game Covid season), I for one have ruled out MD this year and am focused on beating SJB and CIF. 

I agree that MD should win the mnc if they beat bosco . Heres a telling fact. MD has not lost to anyone since 2015, except to  bosco. Just think about that . 8 years, barnstorming around the country, taking on all comers who are willing to get into the ring with them, and not losing to anyone except their evil twin brother, Lol !  And Bosco's record is almost similar, though there  are a couple of blemishes .   Until proven otherwise, I do stand behind my comment that the road to an MNC has to go thru one of these two . Like all things , this will end, but as of today, imop, this is still true . I anticipate a lot of stepping up by teams next season to challenge these teams, all those who want a claim for an MNC 

[Duckburghsfinest1987]

9 hours ago, CaliNorth said:

I agree that MD should win the mnc if they beat bosco . Heres a telling fact. MD has not lost to anyone since 2015, except to  bosco. Just think about that . 8 years, barnstorming around the country, taking on all comers who are willing to get into the ring with them, and not losing to anyone except their evil twin brother, Lol !  And Bosco's record is almost similar, though there  are a couple of blemishes .   Until proven otherwise, I do stand behind my comment that the road to an MNC has to go thru one of these two . Like all things , this will end, but as of today, imop, this is still true . I anticipate a lot of stepping up by teams next season to challenge these teams, all those who want a claim for an MNC 

and MD's entire win loss record is a crazy stat impressive that since 2016 CIF title game loss to Bosco at Angel Stadium.

[Adam_MD_Alum]

Deleted.  

[Adam_MD_Alum]

On 10/29/2023 at 8:26 AM, Adam_MD_Alum said:

100%

most likely scenario ~ BG goes undefeated ~ crowned MNC

Only scenario (least likely) where SJB has a chance, is if they win out AND ChaMadonna loses in playoffs AND BG looses to a 1-loss team in Geico.

MD would need above to happen AND blow-out SJB (unlikely).

And, even then it’s not unfathomable an Undefeated TX team has a better claim over the above hypothetical 1-loss teams (North Shore or De Soto).

 

Gawd…I hate quoting myself and being Right. Truth is, I was shocked by the results of both MD/SJB games. I thought they’d be closer and that MD was good enough to win 2X. Totally wrong there. 

[Duckburghsfinest1987]

MD overall, hasn't lost to anyone not named Bosco since 2015, thats just crazily impressive.