golfaddict1 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Thanks Jeff and don’t be a stranger... visit anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBA said: Did I get everyone? No, but it's ok. I knew the answer anyways... You really have no algorithm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiberalDonaldTrump Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said: He was instructed via text not to answer that idiotic question. Why must you.... Well Propst should mind his own Beeswax... and should not be texting anyone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Awesome! Another home run! Regards BGW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 49 minutes ago, HSFBA said: I guess I misread your question...preseason is a scaled down version of the algorithm...SOS, returners, tradition and state to name a few...sorry Do you ever adjust your state scales' during the season when/if it becomes apparent a states teams seem to be undervalued or overvalued based on how well they are doing OOS? Basically, sometimes a state will outplay its preset scale, made apparent by teams' on field results ... Do you ever change state scales midseason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ECHS05 said: Do you ever adjust your state scales' during the season when/if it becomes apparent a states teams seem to be undervalued or overvalued based on how well they are doing OOS? Basically, sometimes a state will outplay its preset scale, made apparent by teams' on field results ... Do you ever change state scales midseason? Not a bad question but you kinda late to the party 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Do you ever adjust your state scales' during the season when/if it becomes apparent a states teams seem to be undervalued or overvalued based on how well they are doing OOS? Basically, sometimes a state will outplay its preset scale, made apparent by teams' on field results ... Do you ever change state scales midseason? You are very late. I'll say he said definitively... NO TINKERING during the season to a similar question though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 40 minutes ago, HSFBA said: Well, it's the algorithm and not me. But, I think they played SJR pretty tough and I respect Coach Augie. The on-the-field will tell. NJ is a VERY strong state. Don't think I'll get argument on that haha NJ is not a strong STATE. There are a few good teams in New Jersey... That doesnt make the state strong... It has no depth at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: You are very late. I'll say he said definitively... NO TINKERING during the season to a similar question though. Crap... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: NJ is not a strong STATE. There are a few good teams in New Jersey... That doesnt make the state strong... It has no depth at all. Same can be said about Hawaii, Arizona, Maryland, and a few other states All of them lack depth despite having quite a few solid teams at the top Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Do you ever adjust your state scales' during the season when/if it becomes apparent a states teams seem to be undervalued or overvalued based on how well they are doing OOS? Basically, sometimes a state will outplay its preset scale, made apparent by teams' on field results ... Do you ever change state scales midseason? 6 minutes ago, Columbiafan said: Not a bad question but you kinda late to the party 5 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: You are very late. I'll say he said definitively... NO TINKERING during the season to a similar question though. 1 hour ago, PrepGridiron said: Following up on the last part of your answer: Do you get a chance to watch games live? If so, how do you treat the rankings when what you see is not corresponding to the proprietary rankings? 1 hour ago, HSFBA said: In all CAPS, for emphasis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Crap... He did say that he has found reasons to tinker in between seasons and adjust numbers like what you are asking about though. Just never during the season. I guess I can agree with that approach to some extent. It almost seems kind of silly to leave it running if there is an obvious misjudgment of scaling like that, but, it can't be an algorithm if it's being tinkered with after the initial populating of data has been set. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Belly Bob said: In all CAPS, for emphasis. Yeah I didnt do much reading , as I knew I was late since there was already 4 pages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECHS05 Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Just now, HawgGoneIt said: He did say that he has found reasons to tinker in between seasons and adjust numbers like what you are asking about though. Just never during the season. I guess I can agree with that approach to some extent. It almost seems kind of silly to leave it running if there is an obvious misjudgment of scaling like that, but, it can't be an algorithm if it's being tinkered with after the initial populating of data has been set. Preseason ranking are usually pretty bad ... No matter who makes it. Preseason State Scaling is also just that... Preseason. You cant know exactly where a state stands in the preseason because you dont know exactly where its teams stand. OOS games begin to scale states automatically to an extent. If Team A from Arizona beats Team B from Colorado... Arizona gains points while Colorado loses some (as long as the 2 team ratings' allow for it)... And that begins the state scaling process. Problem is thats not enough. IMO, there needs to be some tinkering during the season if it becomes obvious it needs it. Use OOS game results as a guide. Scales should be messed with until game results/scores match team ratings. Anyway.... Just putting my opinion out there, tinkering with state scales midseason makes more sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Yeah I didnt do much reading , as I knew I was late since there was already 4 pages. I hear you. I was just trying to give you the hard evidence that he seems to have answered your question in the negative, to save you the trouble of having to go back to find it yourself, assuming (perhaps wrongly) that you wouldn't want to go back to find it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Preseason ranking are usually pretty bad ... No matter who makes it. Preseason State Scaling is also just that... Preseason. You cant know exactly where a state stands in the preseason because you dont know exactly where its teams stand. OOS games begin to scale states automatically to an extent. If Team A from Arizona beats Team B from Colorado... Arizona gains points while Colorado loses some (as long as the 2 team ratings' allow for it)... And that begins the state scaling process. Problem is thats not enough. IMO, there needs to be some tinkering during the season if it becomes obvious it needs it. Use OOS game results as a guide. Scales should be messed with until game results/scores match team ratings. Anyway.... Just putting my opinion out there, tinkering with state scales midseason makes more sense. I don't see (and I don't think anyone else can see, because it's a false presumption) that you can accurately rank teams after week 0 without already having ranked them, however inchoate those rankings may be, in week 0. And given that fact, I think that Jeff's reasoning is correct: don't tinker, but let the chips fall where they may. If the end result is shit, then tinker in the offseason. The end-of-the-year results are good evidence for the strength of the algorithm. If you tinker along the way, then you diminish the value of that evidence. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Preseason ranking are usually pretty bad ... No matter who makes it. Preseason State Scaling is also just that... Preseason. You cant know exactly where a state stands in the preseason because you dont know exactly where its teams stand. OOS games begin to scale states automatically to an extent. If Team A from Arizona beats Team B from Colorado... Arizona gains points while Colorado loses some (as long as the 2 team ratings' allow for it)... And that begins the state scaling process. Problem is thats not enough. IMO, there needs to be some tinkering during the season if it becomes obvious it needs it. Use OOS game results as a guide. Scales should be messed with until game results/scores match team ratings. Anyway.... Just putting my opinion out there, tinkering with state scales midseason makes more sense. 1 minute ago, Belly Bob said: I don't see (and I don't think anyone else can see, because it's a false presumption) that you can accurately rank teams after week 0 without already having ranked them, however inchoate those rankings may be, in week 0. And given that fact, I think that Jeff's reasoning is correct: don't tinker, but let the chips fall where they may. If the end result is shit, then tinker in the off season. The end-of-the-year results are good evidence for the strength of the algorithm. If you tinker along the way, then you diminish the value of that evidence. Both of you make a pretty good argument. I think I was initially with Belly Bob on that you have to let it run once you initially populate it with all the pertinent data. I do wonder, if, say in a case where some of the pertinent data was either entered incorrectly via typo or misinformation, if they would attempt to correct it. I suppose if they did, then it would change everything before it and after it in the algorithm. If they didn't, and it was a glaring error, then it diminishes the final product as well. Kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't type situation I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Just now, HawgGoneIt said: Both of you make a pretty good argument. I think I was initially with Belly Bob on that you have to let it run once you initially populate it with all the pertinent data. I do wonder, if, say in a case where some of the pertinent data was either entered incorrectly via typo or misinformation, if they would attempt to correct it. I suppose if they did, then it would change everything before it and after it in the algorithm. If they didn't, and it was a glaring error, then it diminishes the final product as well. Kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't type situation I think. That's a good point, but it seems different from the one ECHS and I disagree on. It's one thing to test your algorithm (as you intended it to work) against real outcomes on the field. It's quite another to enter data points incorrectly (so that your algorithm does't work as you intended it to work). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Well he did say last year he had a 62% success in teams starting in the preseason 100 to those who finished the season there.He also said he only does preseason for the fans 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawgGoneIt Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Belly Bob said: That's a good point, but it seems different from the one ECHS and I disagree on. It's one thing to test your algorithm (as you intended it to work) against real outcomes on the field. It's quite another to enter data points incorrectly (so that your algorithm does't work as you intended it to work). Well, it's sort of the same argument. If you realize after the fact that you grossly underscaled North Carolina for instance, then suddenly all the connecting data is corrupted as well. In the end of ends, not tinkering and just accepting what you got with it, as it was, is probably the right move. Once you break into tinkering, or replacing data midstream, your product is wasted. You can't say it's an algorithm after that. It would have to be called a hybrid or something else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 50 minutes ago, ECHS05 said: Preseason ranking are usually pretty bad ... No matter who makes it. Preseason State Scaling is also just that... Preseason. You cant know exactly where a state stands in the preseason because you dont know exactly where its teams stand. OOS games begin to scale states automatically to an extent. If Team A from Arizona beats Team B from Colorado... Arizona gains points while Colorado loses some (as long as the 2 team ratings' allow for it)... And that begins the state scaling process. Problem is thats not enough. IMO, there needs to be some tinkering during the season if it becomes obvious it needs it. Use OOS game results as a guide. Scales should be messed with until game results/scores match team ratings. Anyway.... Just putting my opinion out there, tinkering with state scales midseason makes more sense. Why are you putting so much weight on OOS results? As you yourself seem to suggest, the outcome of one game between two similarly ranked (or rated) teams from different states wouldn't tell us much about the quality of play in the states from which those teams come. As you yourself often go on and on and on about, the outcome of a game is often determined by the styles of play of the teams involved or by a few lucky plays or bad calls, which has nothing at all to do with how good the state are from which the teams come. So why give Arizona points (and take away points from Colorado) because team A happened to beat team B on a given Friday night (or Saturday afternoon)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 When’s Ned coming on? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ararar said: Well he did say last year he had a 62% success in teams starting in the preseason 100 to those who finished the season there.He also said he only does preseason for the fans I don't know what he meant by that. If SOS is crucial for ranking teams in week 2, then it must also be in week 1. And if it's crucial in week 1, then must also be in week 0. He might release preseason rankings for the fans, but he has to have them in mind himself, if he's going rank teams on the basis of SOS after the first games of the season have been played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belly Bob Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said: Well, it's sort of the same argument. If you realize after the fact that you grossly underscaled North Carolina for instance, then suddenly all the connecting data is corrupted as well. In the end of ends, not tinkering and just accepting what you got with it, as it was, is probably the right move. Once you break into tinkering, or replacing data midstream, your product is wasted. You can't say it's an algorithm after that. It would have to be called a hybrid or something else. I misunderstood you then. I thought you had something like this in mind: "Hmmm...This is an unexpected result. Oh, I see why. I didn't hit the keys I meant to when I was putting North Carolina's values in". That's very different from: "Hmmm...This is an unexpected result. Oh, I see why. North Carolina is performing much better than I expected, given my algorithm for determining week 0 rankings." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Las Vegas_JC Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ararar said: When’s Ned coming on? Forget Ned. If we can get the man who first started the sports algorithm business that would be great. Jeff Sagarin is who we need. Heck even Massey got started before that hack (Ned) did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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