2018 Tier Placement - Final

[Sammyswordsman]

4 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Must be tough ranking IMG then lol

 

The question becomes when are they showing 100% effort

The book on IMG according to guys here is that they “do just enough to win”,   

[Sammyswordsman]

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB,  NorthShore (TX),  Duncanville,

Tier 2 -    Allen, DLS, Cen10,  St. Louis (Hi),   St. Edwards, Archbishop Hoban, Lakeland (Fla),  Colerain, Colquitt County,  Milton, Miami Central, Carol City, Northwestern, STA, SFA

Tier 3 -     Mentor (OH),  Bishop Gorman,  Aledo, Chandler (Az), ULAB (La), Longview (Tx), SJC,   Katy,  DeMatha, Gonzaga, Archer,   Rockwall Tx. Longview Tx, Highland Park Tx

Tier 4 -   SJP,  Jserra, Jokes,  Massilon, SJR,  West Monroe, Christopher Columbus FLA, Mandarin Fla, Hillgrove Ga, Folsom, Christian Brothers,  St. Iggy, Centennial (AZ), Parkview, Trinity Christian, Columbia FL, Deerfield Beach, Warren Central. John Curtis

Tier 5 -    Hoover,  Good Council,   Lincoln Way East,  Blessed Trinity,  Mission Viejo, Warner Robbins Ga,   Cardinal Gibbons,   Lee County Ga, Bergen Catholic,   Robert E Lee,   AHP, Grayson, Cathedral Catholic, Loyola Academy

Tier 6 -      Bingham, Walton,   De Paul,  Pinnacle Az.  Cass Tech (MI),  Muskegon (MI), Rome,  Lowndes, Tift,   Pick Central, SPP,  Wekivia (Fl) ,  Cartersville

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*It is possible for a team to lose by 10+ to a team on their same Tier, and still be 10+ points better than teams on the next lowest Tier.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

[Extremely Humble]

Terrible but not surprising. 

[Pops]

3 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

The goal is to place teams appropriately based on ability.  Ability would be measured on results from a 100% effort 

Point of clarification — when you say ability, are you implying that w/l results don’t matter?  IOW, would a difference if winning or losing a 1point game impact the evaluation more than the difference between winning 35-14 or 34-13?

[Pops]

1 hour ago, Extremely Humble said:

Terrible but not surprising. 

Awful and completely predictable 

he wouldn’t treat any other team like that 

[THEOC89]

Excellent Job on the TIERS @Sammyswordsman!!!!...  I Like that you have those 2 TX Teams on TIER 1!!!.... I saw both play this weekend and They are Both Very Impressive Teams!!!...

What about Allen Though?... Why TIER 2?... I saw their las 2 Games and I think they would Beat all of the TIER 2 Teams...

I know Duncanville Beat them in a Close game and Lake Travis was Very Impressive in their win, But those 3 Teams look very close to me....

I am just Curious....🙂

[Sammyswordsman]

17 minutes ago, Pops said:

Point of clarification — when you say ability, are you implying that w/l results don’t matter?  IOW, would a difference if winning or losing a 1point game impact the evaluation more than the difference between winning 35-14 or 34-13?

I was pointing out the pereceived amount of effort IMG puts forth depending on who they are playing.

Of course W/L records count, but so do data points vs. relevant teams.  Teams are evaluated not on the basis on 1 data point.

As far as Folsom goes there were only 2 relevant data points.  The 0-14 loss to DLS in week 0 and the 14-14 regulation tie and OT win vs. Tier 5 Cathedral Catholic.  Folsom got the benefit of the doubt all year by hanging with DLS, but the last game (which all the Nor Cal guys and Folsom guys predicted a blowout) saw Folsom trail the entire game before the OT win.  I can't see any justification to group them with the Tier 3 teams.  May'be you can make the case.

Also Folsom's vaunted offense netted 14 points in 8 quarters in the DLS and CC games.  Which were the two best teams they played.

[Sammyswordsman]

2 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

Excellent Job on the TIERS @Sammyswordsman!!!!...  I Like that you have those 2 TX Teams on TIER 1!!!.... I saw both play this weekend and They are Both Very Impressive Teams!!!...

What about Allen Though?... Why TIER 2?... I saw their las 2 Games and I think they would Beat all of the TIER 2 Teams...

I know Duncanville Beat them in a Close game and Lake Travis was Very Impressive in their win, But those 3 Teams look very close to me....

I am just Curious....🙂

Allen has a really good offense, however their defense is holding them back from Tier 1. 

[Pops]

1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

I was pointing out the pereceived amount of effort IMG puts forth depending on who they are playing.

Of course W/L records count, but so do data points vs. relevant teams.  Teams are evaluated not on the basis on 1 data point.

As far as Folsom goes there were only 2 relevant data points.  The 0-14 loss to DLS in week 0 and the 14-14 regulation tie and OT win vs. Tier 5 Cathedral Catholic.  Folsom got the benefit of the doubt all year by hanging with DLS, but the last game (which all the Nor Cal guys and Folsom guys predicted a blowout) saw Folsom trail the entire game before the OT win.  I can't see any justification to group them with the Tier 3 teams.  May'be you can make the case.

Also Folsom's vaunted offense netted 14 points in 8 quarters in the DLS and CC games.  Which were the two best teams they played.

A rare lucid post fornyou on this topic 

let me accept your points and offer a few of my own:

1). Your “relevant” games is disingenuous. Beating #76 central (fresno) by 36 is certainly a relevant data point.  

2). So is beating #92 Del Oro 40-0.  Del Oro just lost the d1a SBG to SS #7 (CP) grace brethren 21-14.  

3). So is beating a team that played jokes within 2 scores twice my a running clock margin early in 2nd quarter and pulled their starters by halftime.

4). Your use of a scoring star including DLS (top 5 national defense) and Cathedral over 8 quarters is overly contrived and also disingenuous by ignoring both other results (ie they could have scored 100 on chaminade) and the fact that DLS shut out a team that easily could have put as many points on the board as MD just did if DLS has 5 TOs like they did against MD and Folsom didn’t have a 4 standard deviation variance from norm on blown opportunities or coming up just inches short — as a DLS fan I certainly felt like we were just hanging onto a tiger by the tail during the first half — everyone that saw that game would agree I’d think including you 

5). They don’t belong in Tier 3 — they’re tier 2, close enough with DLS (a high end tier 2 team and imho just flipped places with CC in CA “who’d win” ranking (think Folsom higher than CC at CA’s poll of record and 4/7 comp polls 

6). https://www.stpaulhs.org/apps/pages/index.jsp?uREC_ID=334196&type=d&pREC_ID=741932

ler your conscious be your guide 

PS just reread — clarification —> by flipped places with cc, I mean i think I’d take cc on a bet right now, where I would have taken Folsom prior to the sort of flat SBG that heavy factories sometimes have 

[Extremely Humble]

I think Tier 1 is very good but let's talk about some things... 

- I think St Louis is a very good team and might be tier 2 HOWEVER they played absolutely NOBODY. Could you imagine if Folsom had that schedule? We would never hear the end of it... Their best win was against Narbonne who was missing half their starters. They beat a 3-7 Hawaii team by 8 points... let that sink in. 

- Who the hell did Bishop Gorman beat to get a tier 3? They lost against all of the good teams they played. BG is incredible most years but this was a down year for them and they didn't beat anyone nationally ranked. None of the teams in Nevada have a pulse besides them. 

- Chandler in tier 2 after getting almost running clocked by the only legit team they played. You serious????

- DLS is tier 2 yet Folsom is tier 4 when everyone who watched the game including DLS homers will tell you those teams were dead even. You didn't even watch the game and just look at the 14-0 score. Yes, Folsom barely beat a good Cathedral Catholic team but they didn't bring their A game and Cathedral did. The better team clutched it out when it mattered. DLS barely beat Buchanan but remained in Tier 2. Just shows that your hatred Sammy. 

 

Everything else looked okay. 

[Sammyswordsman]

25 minutes ago, Extremely Humble said:

I think Tier 1 is very good but let's talk about some things... 

- I think St Louis is a very good team and might be tier 2 HOWEVER they played absolutely NOBODY. Could you imagine if Folsom had that schedule? We would never hear the end of it... Their best win was against Narbonne who was missing half their starters. They beat a 3-7 Hawaii team by 8 points... let that sink in. - St. Louis CRUSHED Narbonne, which beat a pretty good Palos Verdes team two weeks later and then played Cen10 relatively close (even with Chandler and OLU) the following week, all before their transfers were elegible.  The Narbonne won their section and nearly played Cathedral about as even as Folsom did.

- Who the hell did Bishop Gorman beat to get a tier 3? They lost against all of the good teams they played. BG is incredible most years but this was a down year for them and they didn't beat anyone nationally ranked. None of the teams  in Nevada have a pulse besides them. - Bishop Gorman played DLS closer than Folsom, and was within 1 score of Centennial AZ.  How Centennial does in the Geico could affect The Bishop.

- Chandler in tier 2 after getting almost running clocked by the only legit team they played. You serious???? - Chandler is Tier 3. They could end up in Tier 4.

- DLS is tier 2 yet Folsom is tier 4 when everyone who watched the game including DLS homers will tell you those teams were dead even. You didn't even watch the game and just look at the 14-0 score. Yes, Folsom barely beat a good Cathedral Catholic team but they didn't bring their A game and Cathedral did. The better team clutched it out when it mattered. DLS barely beat Buchanan but remained in Tier 2. Just shows that your hatred Sammy.  - The DLS game was week 0 mid August.  DLS had a new soph QB and 3 of their OL starters lost their jobs since then.  Folsom didn't play any relevant teams until the SBG and even Cathedral was being dismissed (non relevant) as "their are several teams in the SJS section that could beat Cathedral".  The inability (again) of the Folsom offense to be able to score points vs. a non Nor Cal defense is concerning.  Also Chaminade was terrible so that game is not relevant.  I'm not accepting that Jokes didn't choose to run up the score on Chaminade as a valid comparison.  I was on record as saying if Folsom boat raced Cathedral, that they would be moved to Tier 2.  Instead they nearly lost the game.  I am not being a hater, I just try to call balls and strikes as I see them.

 

Everything else looked okay. 

 

[Extremely Humble]

45 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

 

[Wosinc]

6 hours ago, Extremely Humble said:

I think Tier 1 is very good but let's talk about some things... 

- I think St Louis is a very good team and might be tier 2 HOWEVER they played absolutely NOBODY. Could you imagine if Folsom had that schedule? We would never hear the end of it... Their best win was against Narbonne who was missing half their starters. They beat a 3-7 Hawaii team by 8 points... let that sink in. 

- Who the hell did Bishop Gorman beat to get a tier 3? They lost against all of the good teams they played. BG is incredible most years but this was a down year for them and they didn't beat anyone nationally ranked. None of the teams in Nevada have a pulse besides them. 

- Chandler in tier 2 after getting almost running clocked by the only legit team they played. You serious????

- DLS is tier 2 yet Folsom is tier 4 when everyone who watched the game including DLS homers will tell you those teams were dead even. You didn't even watch the game and just look at the 14-0 score. Yes, Folsom barely beat a good Cathedral Catholic team but they didn't bring their A game and Cathedral did. The better team clutched it out when it mattered. DLS barely beat Buchanan but remained in Tier 2. Just shows that your hatred Sammy. 

 

Everything else looked okay. 

Folsom is suffering from the block effect.  As long as he continues to be the one-trick-pony asshole that he’s portrayed himself as since last spring, Folsom will have to be twice as good as anyone else just to be rated as half as good.

He may think he’s being a good fan but in reality he’s just poisoning the well.

And it’s a shame because those kids deserve better.

[Belly Bob]

7 hours ago, Extremely Humble said:

This got me. Nice job. 

[TheHotisBlock]

3 hours ago, Wosinc said:

Folsom is suffering from the block effect.  As long as he continues to be the one-trick-pony asshole that he’s portrayed himself as since last spring, Folsom will have to be twice as good as anyone else just to be rated as half as good.

He may think he’s being a good fan but in reality he’s just poisoning the well.

And it’s a shame because those kids deserve better.

Lmfao I have nothing to do with rankings. 

This is a TINY MINORITY of HSFB fans. Not many people even know about these forums nor do they care. 

It is quite fun though. Apparently you just don't get it.  

Keep it up. I enjoy it. 

[Extremely Humble]

3 hours ago, Wosinc said:

Folsom is suffering from the block effect.  As long as he continues to be the one-trick-pony asshole that he’s portrayed himself as since last spring, Folsom will have to be twice as good as anyone else just to be rated as half as good.

He may think he’s being a good fan but in reality he’s just poisoning the well.

And it’s a shame because those kids deserve better.

I’ve been saying that since day 1. He’s the same troll with over 10 names on the NorCal  board as well that poisoned the well. One of the most relentless trolls I’ve ever seen on any type of forum. The Queen cockroach. 

Pops and I have been doing damage control for a while now but you just can’t keep up. Too exhausting lol. I enjoy posting on this forum and bantering with SoCal posters but Block triggers me more then them. It was a nice month break when he was banned to actually talk high school football. 

Now that the seasons over I’m going to take a break for a bit and hit the slopes in Tahoe with the fam.

happy holidays 

[TheHotisBlock]

36 minutes ago, Extremely Humble said:

He’s the same troll with over 10 names on the NorCal  board

Link me. I must know about this mythical forum. 

[On2whls]

1 hour ago, TheHotisBlock said:

Link me. I must know about this mythical forum. 

LOL, you can hide behind the multitude of identities you have on both forums.  Just remember though, it was you who put the Target squarely on your own back.

[OdbCle]

Props to anyone who takes on the difficult (if not impossible) task of compiling a national ranking of high school teams given the wide array of depth, scheduling, and playoff formats that exist from state to state. I actually like Sammy's unique approach of the tier rankings.  I didn't get to watch many games this year outside my home state of Ohio other than the nationally televised ESPN ones, so I can't be overly critical of many of the polls out there.  But my general approach to these things is giving more weight to teams from power states who compete in the largest classifications against the best competition.  Florida is kind of the rare exception to the classification rule as the depth of talent in that state sees smaller class teams with high caliber rosters. In the other power states (CA, TX, GA, OH) the best teams (and concentration of talent) are usually always found in the highest class.  Yes, those states often have one or two lower division schools that can hang with the big boys. But to garner a high national ranking, IMO, they have to be a truly special team that has D1 college level talent, played up in competition in the regular season, and then mopped the floor in their own classification en route to a title. Hoban would be an example of such a team this year. 

For the non-power states, I need to see them against teams from the traditional power states to get a gauge of where they might stand on a national landscape. And not just any team, but a program with some cachet.  That's why I call into question St. Louis' standing in most of the polls out there. Yes, they mopped with floor with Narbonne, but this wasn't a particularly impressive Narbonne team, and that game was played early in the year in Hawaii.  To me, the rest of St. Louis' schedule doesn't merit top ten consideration. 

Playoffs are very important to me as well, and I give more credence to teams that go through tough playoff runs in the most difficult regions and classifications (Ohio D1 R1 and R4 most years, TX 6A-1, CA Southern Section, Georgia 7A, etc.).  Make a run through those playoffs when it counts, and I'm willing to look past certain regular season blemishes. St. Edward is a perfect example this year. They ran through the most difficult region in the state, avenged two close regular season losses to the other two best teams in that region, and then knocked off an undefeated team from the other power region in the state. The only other loss, to Cass Tech early in the season, was about as fluky as it gets.  Their place among the top 25 can be debated, but I don't know how you keep them out of the top 25. DeMoney finally came around this week at Prepnation and put them 25th (behind teams from Colorado and Mississippi for Christ's sake). 

But one thing is becoming clear in today's national landscape, that top tier of teams (with the exception of North Shore and Duncanville) are playing on a whole other level when it comes to their rosters.  It the matriculation of talent continues at those schools, it's tough to see many other schools nationwide being considered in that class. The gap is large, even if by only a tier. Of St. Edward's 4 state championship teams over the past 8 years, I'd only put 2010 and 2014 on the same field with MD, SJB, or IMG, and it'd still be an uphill battle. 

[Texasball]

On 12/16/2018 at 11:28 PM, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  SJB,  NorthShore (TX),  Duncanville,

Tier 2 -    Allen, DLS, Cen10,  St. Louis (Hi),   St. Edwards, Archbishop Hoban, Lakeland (Fla),   Centennial AZ,  Colerain, Colquitt County,  Milton, Miami Central, Carol City, Northwestern, STA

Tier 3 -     Mentor (OH),  Bishop Gorman,  Aledo, Chandler (Az),   ULAB (La), Longview (Tx), SJC,   Katy,  DeMatha, Gonzaga, Archer,   Rockwall Tx. Longview Tx

Tier 4 -   SJP,  Jserra, Jokes,  Massilon, SJR,  West Monroe, SFA, Christopher Columbus FLA, Mandarin Fla, Hillgrove Ga, Folsom, Christian Brothers,  St. Iggy, Parkview, Trinity Christian, Columbia FL, Deerfield Beach, Warren Central. John Curtis

Tier 5 -    Hoover,  Good Council,   Lincoln Way East,  Blessed Trinity,  Mission Viejo, Warner Robbins Ga,   Cardinal Gibbons,   Lee County Ga, Bergen Catholic,   Robert E Lee,   AHP, Grayson, Cathedral Catholic, Loyola Academy

Tier 6 -      Bingham, Walton,   De Paul,  Pinnacle Az.  Cass Tech (MI),  Muskegon (MI), Rome,  Lowndes, Tift,   Pick Central, SPP,  Wekivia (Fl) ,  Cartersville

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*It is possible for a team to lose by 10+ to a team on their same Tier, and still be 10+ points better than teams on the next lowest Tier.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Allen is Tier 1 team - they would probably split with Duncanville 5-5 in 10 game series.

Highland Park TX beat Rockwall - where is HP?

[Sammyswordsman]

13 minutes ago, Texasball said:

Allen is Tier 1 team - they would probably split with Duncanville 5-5 in 10 game series.

Highland Park TX beat Rockwall - where is HP?

Highland Park will be placed in Tier 3.  They had close wins vs. Rockwall and John Tyler (Which was beat easily by a down CHill team and Longview).

IMO Allen doesn't have a marquee win good enough to be in Tier 1, and their defense has given up far to many points, vs Rockwall and Duncanville which were the only relevant teams they have played so far.

[Horsefly]

9 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Highland Park will be placed in Tier 3.  They had close wins vs. Rockwall and John Tyler (Which was beat easily by a down CHill team and Longview).

IMO Allen doesn't have a marquee win good enough to be in Tier 1, and their defense has given up far to many points, vs Rockwall and Duncanville which were the only relevant teams they have played so far.

But Longview had a close win over Lufkin who was beat easily by 5A lone star. 

[Sammyswordsman]

49 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

But Longview had a close win over Lufkin who was beat easily by 5A lone star. 

Lone star also played Highland Park in a tight 10-7 game, so they are good.  Longview played one of the tougher Texas schedules to date and managed to survive.  Winning multiple close games. 

[Horsefly]

Just now, Sammyswordsman said:

Lone star also played Highland Park in a tight 10-7 game, so they are good.  Longview played one of the tougher Texas schedules to date and managed to survive.  Winning multiple close games. 

If you look on calpreps Longview and highland park are very close on SOS and results to similarly ranked opponents.  

[Exocet 98]

12 hours ago, TheHotisBlock said:

Link me. I must know about this mythical forum.