Let's examine the crime issue again, Red vs. Blue

[Ga96]

2 hours ago, GoBigBlack said:

Any studies on how strict or loose gun laws are factors into the red states/blue cities argument? Any opinions on that?

I know for a fact kemps passing of less gun laws has caused a big rise in gun violence and murders.

[FreeBird]

5 hours ago, Ga96 said:

I know for a fact kemps passing of less gun laws has caused a big rise in gun violence and murders.

What race is committing the violence and murders?

 

 

 

 

About 92 percent of Atlanta’s murders last year were of Black people: 125 Black men (or boys) and 19 Black women (or girls). This, in a city of about 500,000 people, of which about 250,000 are Black. Three white men and three white women were killed, along with three Hispanic men and five Asian women. 

[tommygun58]

Whatever city/state you plan to visit just avoid MLK blvd,street or road & your chances of surviving double.

[Nolebull813]

I’m beginning to think Willy is a republican operative sent to make democrats look bad 

[Blueliner]

36 minutes ago, tommygun58 said:

Whatever city/state you plan to visit just avoid MLK blvd,street or road & your chances of surviving double.

You’ll appreciate this. I’m originally from the bay area. Until about 25 years or so ago, the city of Oakland’s hotbed for violence, drugs, and prostitution was the legendary (or notorious) E. 14th Street that spanned from one end of Oakland to the other. The new name…MLK Blvd. The thinking behind the name change was to clean up its and the city’s image. Forget fixing the problem, just change the name. The old saying of “you can’t put lipstick on a pig” appropriately applies here🤣. But don’t be too shocked when I tell you that it’s only gotten worse over the decades. 

…and of course the worst area of town here in Knoxville is…wait for it….has MLK Blvd running straight through it. Go figure. 

[OldTerrapin]

3 hours ago, Blueliner said:

You’ll appreciate this. I’m originally from the bay area. Until about 25 years or so ago, the city of Oakland’s hotbed for violence, drugs, and prostitution was the legendary (or notorious) E. 14th Street that spanned from one end of Oakland to the other. The new name…MLK Blvd. The thinking behind the name change was to clean up its and the city’s image. Forget fixing the problem, just change the name. The old saying of “you can’t put lipstick on a pig” appropriately applies here🤣. But don’t be too shocked when I tell you that it’s only gotten worse over the decades. 

…and of course the worst area of town here in Knoxville is…wait for it….has MLK Blvd running straight through it. Go figure. 

that's in a lot of cities Baltimore, Wilmington, ETC.. same thing MLK Blvd not safe... I guess MLK stands for Murder Loot Kill

[Wildcat Will]

4 hours ago, FreeBird said:

What race is committing the violence and murders?

 

 

 

 

About 92 percent of Atlanta’s murders last year were of Black people: 125 Black men (or boys) and 19 Black women (or girls). This, in a city of about 500,000 people, of which about 250,000 are Black. Three white men and three white women were killed, along with three Hispanic men and five Asian women. 

Atlanta is 11 counties with 5 million residents.

Nice to see only 6 white people were killed in the city last year.

[GoBigBlack]

11 hours ago, concha said:

 

Frankly,  data from four places in the People's Republic does little to change my view. 

You may have 3 or 4 exceptions to the rule. Not sure. But the larger nationwide picture does not change, I believe.

I point to the study looking at the 100 largest cities in the nation. The data looks pretty clear.

Sure, but what about data from all the places? Your contention is that it’s Democratic rule that’s responsible for high murder rates. Those four cities clearly refute that claim. And given the small sample size already and the fact that those four cities would comprise 14% of the Republican-governed cities in your study…

The argument was that red states have higher murder rates. Your counter to that is that it’s because of blue cities. I gave examples of red cities with higher murder rates and your response was “but they’re in blue counties.” Not much to continue discussing after that.

[concha]

1 hour ago, GoBigBlack said:

Sure, but what about data from all the places? Your contention is that it’s Democratic rule that’s responsible for high murder rates. Those four cities clearly refute that claim. And given the small sample size already and the fact that those four cities would comprise 14% of the Republican-governed cities in your study…

The argument was that red states have higher murder rates. Your counter to that is that it’s because of blue cities. I gave examples of red cities with higher murder rates and your response was “but they’re in blue counties.” Not much to continue discussing after that.

You merely point out there are exceptions to the rule.

I was basing my argument on analysis from the 100 most populous cities in the nation, from all across the nation.  You went with four cities in one state, one of which ended up being purple at best.

I'm comfortable that the quality and weight of my argument is better.

The counties part has more to do with determining if a place is really red or blue.  Usually a city population dominates the population within its county.

[GoBigBlack]

1 hour ago, concha said:

You merely point out there are exceptions to the rule.

I was basing my argument on analysis from the 100 most populous cities in the nation, from all across the nation.  You went with four cities in one state, one of which ended up being purple at best.

I'm comfortable that the quality and weight of my argument is better.

The counties part has more to do with determining if a place is really red or blue.  Usually a city population dominates the population within its county.

There is no rule. And a city population would dominate the population within its county? Not even going to touch that one.

I took the state with the strictest gun laws I could think of to use as an example, and it works fine. Did you check alllll those other cities to see if they were purple? Did you check the counties of those cities? Of course not. And why? Because, as I stated before and you just reiterated, you’re comfortable with what the cherry picked data being used to support your argument suggests. Why bother doing any more analysis, right?

Did you take into account population density? Historical laws and crime rates? Federal assistance and community investment? Gun laws? Why is it that cities in the same state as those with high murder red cities manage to have much lower murder rates even though their populations are much more dense and are perceived as being far less safe, especially when they’re perpetually governed by democrats? 
 

Just read the conclusion from the study you posted. You’re isolating one variable in the equation and claiming you’ve figured out time travel. 

[concha]

16 minutes ago, GoBigBlack said:

There is no rule. And a city population would dominate the population within its county? Not even going to touch that one.

I took the state with the strictest gun laws I could think of to use as an example, and it works fine. Did you check alllll those other cities to see if they were purple? Did you check the counties of those cities? Of course not. And why? Because, as I stated before and you just reiterated, you’re comfortable with what the cherry picked data being used to support your argument suggests. Why bother doing any more analysis, right?

Did you take into account population density? Historical laws and crime rates? Federal assistance and community investment? Gun laws? Why is it that cities in the same state as those with high murder red cities manage to have much lower murder rates even though their populations are much more dense and are perceived as being far less safe, especially when they’re perpetually governed by democrats? 
 

Just read the conclusion from the study you posted. You’re isolating one variable in the equation and claiming you’ve figured out time travel. 

 

There is a rule.  Derived from data over 100 large cities.

If you think that delving into the details of those 100 cities will permit you to find the exceptions that swing the vast difference that was found - then have at it, my friend.  I'm not sure how looking at the 100 largest cities is cherry-picking, btw. Top 100 is a pretty common thing.

The 100 largest cities in the nation were chosen. And the difference was huge. The crime rates in Dem-run cities weren't just 2% or 5% or 10% higher "so maybe I can dig into the details and find exceptions to change the results to get the one I prefer". The difference was nearly DOUBLE.

If you want to look into population density or whatever in hopes of swinging the results your way, then have at it, brah. Good fucking luck. 👍

Off you go... I await the results with bated breath.

 

[GoBigBlack]

On 2/8/2023 at 11:52 AM, concha said:

 

There is a rule.  Derived from data over 100 large cities.

If you think that delving into the details of those 100 cities will permit you to find the exceptions that swing the vast difference that was found - then have at it, my friend.  I'm not sure how looking at the 100 largest cities is cherry-picking, btw. Top 100 is a pretty common thing.

The 100 largest cities in the nation were chosen. And the difference was huge. The crime rates in Dem-run cities weren't just 2% or 5% or 10% higher "so maybe I can dig into the details and find exceptions to change the results to get the one I prefer". The difference was nearly DOUBLE.

If you want to look into population density or whatever in hopes of swinging the results your way, then have at it, brah. Good fucking luck. 👍

Off you go... I await the results with bated breath.

 

I suggest, once again, you actually read the concluding remarks of the study you're touting. It's cherry picked mostly by you, when you complain that data is skewed because of blue cities then in the next breath claim that red cities have high murder rates because they're in blue counties. And one of the four cities is purple, so that don't count now do it... even though you didn't check any of the other cities. That's called... cherry picking. 

And I hope your breath wasn't too bated. ThirdWay did a follow-up study that was released just a couple weeks ago, as luck would have it. I'll wait with bated breath... off you go.

[Nolebull813]

On 2/8/2023 at 10:10 AM, Wildcat Will said:

Atlanta is 11 counties with 5 million residents.

Nice to see only 6 white people were killed in the city last year.

Sorry it’s not as high as you wished. 

[concha]

On 2/11/2023 at 3:36 AM, GoBigBlack said:

I suggest, once again, you actually read the concluding remarks of the study you're touting. It's cherry picked mostly by you, when you complain that data is skewed because of blue cities then in the next breath claim that red cities have high murder rates because they're in blue counties. And one of the four cities is purple, so that don't count now do it... even though you didn't check any of the other cities. That's called... cherry picking. 

And I hope your breath wasn't too bated. ThirdWay did a follow-up study that was released just a couple weeks ago, as luck would have it. I'll wait with bated breath... off you go.

 

Not sure where you get "complain" from. The bullshit red state "study" was clearly shown to be sleight-of-hand at very best.  Remove long Dem-ruled cities from the red state's data and lo-and-behold, murder rates plummet.

Not sure what your issue is with counties.  I know you pointed out a supposedly red stronghold that apparently isn't and is in a county that voted heavily Biden. Stockton accounts for 40% of the population in the county. Maybe (oddly), the rest of the county is really blue? Maybe. 

I also posted a study  showing that as with large cities, large counties tend to suffer from higher murder rates. 

Isn't ThirdWay the group that posted the initial bullshit "study" where they tried to paint red states with the crime rates of the very blue cities within them? It is a laughably dishonest organization. Why the hell would I waste my time reading any of their propaganda?

I haven't even addressed that Republican governors and mayors also have to deal with the devastating effects of the federal welfare state.

 

Hey, I'm curious about ThirdWay's murder data.  Again I just go to the first state on their list, Mississippi. They claim the murder rate is over 20 per 100k people.  The FBI says it's about half that. Next... Louisiana look OK (driven by blue cities NOLA, Baton Rouge, Shreveport etc) next... Kentucky... ThirdWay claims 14.3 and the FBI says... 7.2...  What?

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/table-5

 

[World Citizen]

13 hours ago, concha said:

Hey, I'm curious about ThirdWay's murder data.  Again I just go to the first state on their list, Mississippi. They claim the murder rate is over 20 per 100k people.  The FBI says it's about half that. Next... Louisiana supposedly 15.8, FBI says 11.7.  Hmmmmm.... next... Kentucky... ThirdWay claims 14.3 and the FBI says... 4.9...  What?

They clearly state that they do not use FBI for their data (with exception of 4 states).  This is from that same article - 

"We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. "

 

You have yet to demonstrate what specific policies from Democratic mayors that is responsible for crime.  Also, what are the specific policies of Republican mayors that are responsible for preventing crime?  

14 hours ago, concha said:

I haven't even addressed that Republican governors and mayors also have to deal with the devastating effects of the federal welfare state.

The reason is because the federal welfare states biggest customer is red states.  Not even close.  I guess Democrat mayors and governors never have to deal with the devastating effects of Republican decisions to keep the states in poverty.  

[GoBigBlack]

14 hours ago, concha said:

Hey, I'm curious about ThirdWay's murder data.  Again I just go to the first state on their list, Mississippi. They claim the murder rate is over 20 per 100k people.  The FBI says it's about half that. Next... Louisiana supposedly 15.8, FBI says 11.7.  Hmmmmm.... next... Kentucky... ThirdWay claims 14.3 and the FBI says... 4.9...  What?

"In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states."

 

And here's the comparative data from the chart. Alphabetical order -- Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi. You're saying ThirdWay is using rates of 14.3, 15.8, and over 20. They're using 5.59, 13.95, and 14.57, respectively. Dude, what the fuck are you looking at? Like, what the actual fuck are you looking at? Hard to have an honest conversation with you when you're either acting nefariously or can't read a basic chart, don't you think? Once again, READ first.

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBigBlack]

6 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

The reason is because the federal welfare states biggest customer is red states.  Not even close.  I guess Democrat mayors and governors never have to deal with the devastating effects of Republican decisions to keep the states in poverty. 

B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, and Concha was his name-o.

[GoBigBlack]

14 hours ago, concha said:

I also posted a study  showing that as with large cities, large counties tend to suffer from higher murder rates. 

14 hours ago, concha said:

  Remove long Dem-ruled cities from the red state's data and lo-and-behold, murder rates plummet.

You did. And in this ThirdWay study they removed the largest city in every red state. They eliminated all murders in the entire county the largest city resides. So here's the list you provided below crossing off all the cities that were not factored into the murder rates in the red states. Even after taking that away red states still had a 12% higher murder rate than blue states.

 

 

 

[concha]

8 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

They clearly state that they do not use FBI for their data (with exception of 4 states).  This is from that same article - 

"We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. "

 

You have yet to demonstrate what specific policies from Democratic mayors that is responsible for crime.  Also, what are the specific policies of Republican mayors that are responsible for preventing crime?  

The reason is because the federal welfare states biggest customer is red states.  Not even close.  I guess Democrat mayors and governors never have to deal with the devastating effects of Republican decisions to keep the states in poverty.  

 

1) Appreciate the CDC clarification.  I went over there to check to see if they have any more detailed breakdown. They do not appear to have any. 

2) As in go through the policies of loads of individual mayors back in time to provide you with a detailed list?  I think our recent BLM/Defund the Police debacle showed which parties stand where in terms of support for the police and being hard on crime.  I'd also direct you to the behavior of left-wing DAs in many of our major cities.  I have already provided a study indicating a massive gap between R and D mayors in terms of crime rate in our top 100 cities.

2) Au contraire. The target of the so-called Great Society was black America. This began in the early to mid 60s, when Democrats ran the show all over the South, for example.  They continued to do so for roughly another 30 years. What do many of these states that tend to vote red at the state level and have high murder/crime rates have in common? They tend to have very high percentages of African-Americans.  What do we find disproportionately within the AA population of this country?  Here's three very relevant truths:  They vote overwhelmingly Democrat (and are thus more likely to be governed by Democrats at the local level that controls their policing and schools). They are far more likely to be dependent on the federal welfare state. Also, they tend to have far higher homicide rates in their communities.

 

[GoBigBlack]

15 minutes ago, concha said:

 

1) Appreciate the CDC clarification.  I went over there to check to see if they have any more detailed breakdown. They do not appear to have any. 

2) As in go through the policies of loads of individual mayors back in time to provide you with a detailed list?  I think our recent BLM/Defund the Police debacle showed which parties stand where in terms of support for the police and being hard on crime.  I'd also direct you to the behavior of left-wing DAs in many of our major cities.  I have already provided a study indicating a massive gap between R and D mayors in terms of crime rate in our top 100 cities.

2) Au contraire. The target of the so-called Great Society was black America. This began in the early to mid 60s, when Democrats ran the show all over the South, for example.  They continued to do so for roughly another 30 years. What do many of these states that tend to vote red at the state level and have high murder/crime rates have in common? They tend to have very high percentages of African-Americans.  What do we find disproportionately within the AA population of this country?  Here's three very relevant truths:  They vote overwhelmingly Democrat (and are thus more likely to be governed by Democrats at the local level that controls their policing and schools). They are far more likely to be dependent on the federal welfare state. Also, they tend to have far higher homicide rates in their communities.

 

It’s the cdc. Pretty safe bet they strictly use death certificates with the word “homicide” on them. Just a guess. But that would be more accurate and robust than any of those studies you referenced up to this point that rely on incomplete and “voluntary reporting,” right? 

[Troll]

1 hour ago, World Citizen said:

The reason is because the federal welfare states biggest customer is red states.  Not even close.  I guess Democrat mayors and governors never have to deal with the devastating effects of Republican decisions to keep the states in poverty.  

 

55 minutes ago, GoBigBlack said:

B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, and Concha was his name-o.

 

uh-huh

Public Welfare State Expenditures Per Capita in 2020

Rank	State	2020 elec	Per Capita Expenditures
1	Alaska	RED	3,707
2	Massachusetts	BLUE	3,642
3	New York	BLUE	3,449
4	New Mexico	BLUE	3,432
5	Vermont	BLUE	3,040
6	Oregon	BLUE	3,033
7	Kentucky	RED	2,931
8	Rhode Island	BLUE	2,915
9	California	BLUE	2,914
10	Louisiana	RED	2,906
11	Pennsylvania	BLUE	2,904
12	Minnesota	BLUE	2,865
13	Delaware	BLUE	2,842
14	Maine	BLUE	2,838
15	West Virginia	RED	2,777

 

https://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=censgovtre_exp_1_c&item_in=040

 

 

PS: You were saying ???

🤔

 

PS: golly gee...

 

 

 

[GoBigBlack]

21 minutes ago, concha said:

I think our recent BLM/Defund the Police debacle showed which parties stand where in terms of support for the police and being hard on crime.

Totally.

 

 

[concha]

24 minutes ago, GoBigBlack said:

You did. And in this ThirdWay study they removed the largest city in every red state. They eliminated all murders in the entire county the largest city resides. So here's the list you provided below crossing off all the cities that were not factored into the murder rates in the red states. Even after taking that away red states still had a 12% higher murder rate than blue states.

 

 

 

 

Let me get this straight.

So they provide a list of "red" states.

That list is dominated by states that have very high percentages of black Americans in their populations.

Black America:

• Votes Democrat to the tune of about 9 in 10.
• Is thus more likely to live under Dem rule (policing, schools...).
• Is far more dependent on the federal welfare state than the population at large.
• Has far higher violent crime/homicide rates than the population at large.

Look up any homicide data you can find on these states and you will find that the statistics are driven by AA violence. Is it due to their color? I don't believe that. Do you?  Maybe due to history and then being ravaged by the effects of liberal rule and policies for the last 60 years?  How does the red state governor compete with the federal welfare state that now touches on the African-American community at about 5x the rate of whites? How does he affect local crime rates when crime is overwhelmingly handled at the LOCAL level?

 

 

 

 

[concha]

13 minutes ago, GoBigBlack said:

It’s the cdc. Pretty safe bet they strictly use death certificates with the word “homicide” on them. Just a guess. But that would be more accurate and robust than any of those studies you referenced up to this point that rely on incomplete and “voluntary reporting,” right? 

 

No info on demographics or locale. Convenient.

Right?

 

[concha]

6 minutes ago, GoBigBlack said:

Totally.

 

 

 

Nancy had the opportunity to let lots of police and NG protect and serve. She chose not to.

Right?

Totally.