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GA 2021 OOS analysis


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GA 2021 OOS Analysis

 

Only schools rated in the CalPreps Georgia top 100 in-state (national top 1000 approx) vs OOS opponents rated under 1000 (several rated higher than 1000 included) 

Notes: 

Massey has Greenville Christian, MS rated very low (much likely to do with a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 in nation... differential issue)

Rabun Gap is from GA but plays in a NC league...  CP has them rated #3 in NC and by power rating, #25 in GA...   Massey has Rabun Gap very low  

Massey predictions I believe were made based on the power rating formula Massey uses that adjusts on a weekly basis. 
 

Any questions, shoot away.  

 

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3 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

GA 2021 OOS Analysis

 

Only schools rated in the CalPreps Georgia top 100 in-state (national top 1000 approx) vs OOS opponents rated under 1000 (several rated higher than 1000 included) 

Notes: 

Massey has Greenville Christian, MS rated very low (much likely to do with a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 in nation... differential issue)

Rabun Gap is from GA but plays in a NC league...  CP has them rated #3 in NC and by power rating, #25 in GA...   Massey has Rabun Gap very low  

Massey predictions I believe were made based on the power rating formula Massey uses that adjusts on a weekly basis. 
 

Any questions, shoot away.  

 

I'm having trouble opening the document. I'm not sure what the deal with that is. I'm using mobile and it says something about connection while trying to open it with Google drive which I use pretty regularly for such, but, I can see the sheet, I just can't blow it up without downloading Google sheets or something. Lol

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2 hours ago, RedZone said:

What does it mean?

Rather than show a W-L record with no data , I welcome the analytical exercise. :) 

13 GA schools participated in quality OOS matchups.  @BUFORDGAWOLVESsquad played in two, while Benedictine played two OOS opponents, losing to a lower rated school that wouldn't have made this list had Benedictine won the game.  

5 GA schools challenged top 100 rated teams 

Hoover was favored to win vs. N. Gwinnett at home (NG rated above 250) and won convincingly (18 pts differential more than Massey's prediction).   I'd say an underperformance by NG losing 38-14.  

Buford hosted Chaminade Madonna at home and was favored to win by 7 and lost by 7... were shutout as well.  This on paper was a solid matchup between similarly rated top 100 teams.   Someone has to lose, but the shutout on home turf leads me to placing Buford as an underperformance.  

Calhoun hosted TN power McCallie and lost by 18 points, nearly identical to Massey's prediction.  Calhoun is rated 244 and 434, while McCallie is well within the top 100.   Performance on par as predicted by Calhoun.  

Collins Hill beat current #1 in MS Greenville Christian at home 37-22.   Massey has some F'd up rating for GC, partly or mostly due to a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 (differential drop) and didn't have GC properly placed at the time of the game... so I'll simply state #1 GA vs #1 MS (CP #7 at home vs. #65 currently).  15 point win is a nice W, but on an elite national scale Greenville Christian MS is not a comp 25 candidate, while Collins Hill currently sits at #10.  With that said, had GC won they would have been. :) 

I don't know what the deal is with Rabun Gap Nacoochee... GA location, but plays in a NC league.  Anywhoooo, they faced a TN opponent in Baylor (similarly rated by CalPreps) and lost on the road by 14.   Massey had them losing by 28 but he also F'd up their rating by not realizing their hybrid status.  So ultimately, I'm basing this on CP ratings of 210 beating 216 at home by 14... that's an underperformance by the hybrid GA/NC school.  

To summarize:  In the top 100 opponent games,  #1 rated in GA held serve vs. MS #1 at home, but the rest of the schools (except Calhoun) underperformed.  

Milton had a solid W vs St Joseph's Prep PA.  Massey had SJP winning by 17 at home and Milton won by 7.  

The rest of the slate speaks for itself looking at the data I provided.  Buford held serve, Lowndes won a shootout, Columbus beat Benedictine, Benedictine lost to a much lower rated Beaufort SC and so on down the ratings of games.  

The Massey differential of 21 points for 14 games suggests GA outperformed by an avg. of 1.5 pts a game, but Massey's ratings are skewed in a few spots and I question some of these predictions as also being skewed for that reason.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Ga96 said:

@Wildcat Will really got yall steamed about your states being scared to play oos comp.

I did this exercise to peel the onion from several meaningless W-L vs. OOS records he put out.  

I wouldn't be too pleased about the data either.  Greenville Christian MS is the marquee win in this power state and unless Calhoun's performance excited you, nothing else to be excited about vs. top 100 opponents.  

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51 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Rather than show a W-L record with no data , I welcome the analytical exercise. :) 

13 GA schools participated in quality OOS matchups.  @BUFORDGAWOLVESsquad played in two, while Benedictine played two OOS opponents, losing to a lower rated school that wouldn't have made this list had Benedictine won the game.  

5 GA schools challenged top 100 rated teams 

Hoover was favored to win vs. N. Gwinnett at home (NG rated above 250) and won convincingly (18 pts differential more than Massey's prediction).   I'd say an underperformance by NG losing 38-14.  

Buford hosted Chaminade Madonna at home and was favored to win by 7 and lost by 7... were shutout as well.  This on paper was a solid matchup between similarly rated top 100 teams.   Someone has to lose, but the shutout on home turf leads me to placing Buford as an underperformance.  

Calhoun hosted TN power McCallie and lost by 18 points, nearly identical to Massey's prediction.  Calhoun is rated 244 and 434, while McCallie is well within the top 100.   Performance on par as predicted by Calhoun.  

Collins Hill beat current #1 in MS Greenville Christian at home 37-22.   Massey has some F'd up rating for GC, partly or mostly due to a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 (differential drop) and didn't have GC properly placed at the time of the game... so I'll simply state #1 GA vs #1 MS (CP #7 at home vs. #65 currently).  15 point win is a nice W, but on an elite national scale Greenville Christian MS is not a comp 25 candidate, while Collins Hill currently sits at #10.  With that said, had GC won they would have been. :) 

I don't know what the deal is with Rabun Gap Nacoochee... GA location, but plays in a NC league.  Anywhoooo, they faced a TN opponent in Baylor (similarly rated by CalPreps) and lost on the road by 14.   Massey had them losing by 28 but he also F'd up their rating by not realizing their hybrid status.  So ultimately, I'm basing this on CP ratings of 210 beating 216 at home by 14... that's an underperformance by the hybrid GA/NC school.  

To summarize:  In the top 100 opponent games,  #1 rated in GA held serve vs. MS #1 at home, but the rest of the schools (except Calhoun) underperformed.  

Milton had a solid W vs St Joseph's Prep PA.  Massey had SJP winning by 17 at home and Milton won by 7.  

The rest of the slate speaks for itself looking at the data I provided.  Buford held serve, Lowndes won a shootout, Columbus beat Benedictine, Benedictine lost to a much lower rated Beaufort SC and so on down the ratings of games.  

The Massey differential of 21 points for 14 games suggests GA outperformed by an avg. of 1.5 pts a game, but Massey's ratings are skewed in a few spots and I question some of these predictions as also being skewed for that reason.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rabun Gap Nacoochee is a private school (50K+ tuition) most expensive private school in the state.... 

Not exactly sure why they compete in NC... 

 

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13 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

I did this exercise to peel the onion from several meaningless W-L vs. OOS records he put out.  

I wouldn't be too pleased about the data either.  Greenville Christian MS is the marquee win in this power state and unless Calhoun's performance excited you, nothing else to be excited about vs. top 100 opponents.  

It’s no surprise because top OOS games are a rarity with Georgia. You are not gonna find too many impressive results on a yearly basis. Most results will be expected. It confirms what I said about them scheduling OOS teams they think they can beat 

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14 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I'm having trouble opening the document. I'm not sure what the deal with that is. I'm using mobile and it says something about connection while trying to open it with Google drive which I use pretty regularly for such, but, I can see the sheet, I just can't blow it up without downloading Google sheets or something. Lol

All the Georgia poster predicted Hoover would win easy and they did. I thought it would be closer like a 7 point game. 

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1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Rather than show a W-L record with no data , I welcome the analytical exercise. :) 

13 GA schools participated in quality OOS matchups.  @BUFORDGAWOLVESsquad played in two, while Benedictine played two OOS opponents, losing to a lower rated school that wouldn't have made this list had Benedictine won the game.  

5 GA schools challenged top 100 rated teams 

Hoover was favored to win vs. N. Gwinnett at home (NG rated above 250) and won convincingly (18 pts differential more than Massey's prediction).   I'd say an underperformance by NG losing 38-14.  

Buford hosted Chaminade Madonna at home and was favored to win by 7 and lost by 7... were shutout as well.  This on paper was a solid matchup between similarly rated top 100 teams.   Someone has to lose, but the shutout on home turf leads me to placing Buford as an underperformance.  

Calhoun hosted TN power McCallie and lost by 18 points, nearly identical to Massey's prediction.  Calhoun is rated 244 and 434, while McCallie is well within the top 100.   Performance on par as predicted by Calhoun.  

Collins Hill beat current #1 in MS Greenville Christian at home 37-22.   Massey has some F'd up rating for GC, partly or mostly due to a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 (differential drop) and didn't have GC properly placed at the time of the game... so I'll simply state #1 GA vs #1 MS (CP #7 at home vs. #65 currently).  15 point win is a nice W, but on an elite national scale Greenville Christian MS is not a comp 25 candidate, while Collins Hill currently sits at #10.  With that said, had GC won they would have been. :) 

I don't know what the deal is with Rabun Gap Nacoochee... GA location, but plays in a NC league.  Anywhoooo, they faced a TN opponent in Baylor (similarly rated by CalPreps) and lost on the road by 14.   Massey had them losing by 28 but he also F'd up their rating by not realizing their hybrid status.  So ultimately, I'm basing this on CP ratings of 210 beating 216 at home by 14... that's an underperformance by the hybrid GA/NC school.  

To summarize:  In the top 100 opponent games,  #1 rated in GA held serve vs. MS #1 at home, but the rest of the schools (except Calhoun) underperformed.  

Milton had a solid W vs St Joseph's Prep PA.  Massey had SJP winning by 17 at home and Milton won by 7.  

The rest of the slate speaks for itself looking at the data I provided.  Buford held serve, Lowndes won a shootout, Columbus beat Benedictine, Benedictine lost to a much lower rated Beaufort SC and so on down the ratings of games.  

The Massey differential of 21 points for 14 games suggests GA outperformed by an avg. of 1.5 pts a game, but Massey's ratings are skewed in a few spots and I question some of these predictions as also being skewed for that reason.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t have a problem with this analysis. Buford should’ve beat Madonna but with a caveat. Buford is about “life lessons” also, doing things the right way… the Buford Way. 
 

Green and Gold Baby. 
 

bgw

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16 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

GA 2021 OOS Analysis

 

Only schools rated in the CalPreps Georgia top 100 in-state (national top 1000 approx) vs OOS opponents rated under 1000 (several rated higher than 1000 included) 

Notes: 

Massey has Greenville Christian, MS rated very low (much likely to do with a 2-0 forfeit win vs. a team rated over 13,000 in nation... differential issue)

Rabun Gap is from GA but plays in a NC league...  CP has them rated #3 in NC and by power rating, #25 in GA...   Massey has Rabun Gap very low  

Massey predictions I believe were made based on the power rating formula Massey uses that adjusts on a weekly basis. 
 

Any questions, shoot away.  

 

Raburn Gap does not play in a Carolina league. How stupid must one be to think a team in one state can play in another states leagues?

No question needed for those that have no knowledge.

Raburn Gap is a GHSA school.

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2 hours ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

Rabun Gap Nacoochee is a private school (50K+ tuition) most expensive private school in the state.... 

Not exactly sure why they compete in NC... 

 

They play NC schools because if location.

Quite simple really. Raburn plays in 8AA-GHSA. Their region consist of Elbert Co., Union County, Riverside Military and Banks County.

I just love it when the mouth's are speaking but the brain has no knowledge of the subject.........don't you?

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26 minutes ago, Wildcat Will said:

How stupid must one be to think a team in one state can play in another states leagues?

How dumb are you gonna feel when you find out that Truckee (CA) is a member of the Nevada state association?

Probably as dumb as you'll feel when you find out that Rabun Gap-Nacoochee is a member of the NCISAA.

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7 hours ago, Atticus Finch said:

How dumb are you gonna feel when you find out that Truckee (CA) is a member of the Nevada state association?

Probably as dumb as you'll feel when you find out that Rabun Gap-Nacoochee is a member of the NCISAA.

No problem. That move in Cali was purely financial. 

Totally financial. 

Made sense at the time. The push is on now to stop that. 

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5 hours ago, Wildcat Will said:

No problem. That mive in Cali was purely financial. 

Totally financial. 

Made sense at the time. The push is on now to stop that. 

South Tahoe, North Tahoe and Needles High also play in the NIAA even though they are in California. It’s due to proximity and being closer to Nevada schools and being more isolated from California schools.

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